kanada wrote:Я тут погуглил малость ..... вроде фсе в точности как Ваш опонент писал. Libor - forward rate = lease rate ....
The lease rate is the rate bullion banks get when they borrow gold from central banks at a low forward rate and invest them in the cash market.
получаецца, что никто не доплачивает тем, кто берет золото в лиз, а совсем наоборот
Negative GLD Lease Rate результатом того, что, или LIBOR упало ниже LR, или
lending rate выросла выше LIBOR.
Вроде простая матиматика
Это обрывочная фраза - нужно читать полный текст, хотя он и написан очень небрежно:
How Long Will This Cycle for Mining Stocks Last?Metals - and especially precious metals - are primarily driven by lease rates spreads. Today, many projects are financed through forward sales of the future metals. This is very attractive when metal lease rates are high. Thus companies are investing in new capacities when lease rates are high - and they are not investing when lease rates are low. Forget supply and demand. Silver has been in short supply for nearly a decade by 100 mill oz per year, yet the silver price constantly moved downward - up to now.
First some definitions. What many people talk about (when they mention lease rates ) is actually the forward rate or lending rate. Here is how the lease rate is composed:
Libor - forward rate = lease rate
You can see from this equation that if the Libor is very high (as it has been during the nineties) the lease rate is also high. The lease rate is the rate bullion banks get when they
borrow gold from central banks
at a low forward rate and
invest them in the cash market.
Все немного сложнее... дело в том что "forward rate" или GOFO (определяемая LBMA) используется для
gold swaps (поэтому часто называемая "gold LIBOR"), и
не является "lending rate" of gold как пишет автор. Автор просто имел ввиду, что занимать деньги под золото (finance projects through forward sales of the future metals) через "gold swap" выгоднее когда "lease rate" (т.е. разница между "money LIBOR" и "gold LIBOR") велика.
Слова
"The lease rate is the rate bullion banks get ..." на самом деле относятся не к операции
gold lending by "central bank" (bank A) to "bullion bank" (bank B), а к
цепочке операций:
1) Bank A borrows cash at GOFO "forward rate" (less than LIBOR) from Bank B using the gold swap
2) Bank B gets gold as a collateral for its cash, but have to return it to Bank A at the fixed price (spot price on the moment of gold swap).
3) Bank B can sell the gold and invest money in the cash market at LIBOR, получая дополнительно "premium" в виде "lease rate" (то, что автор назвал
the rate bullion banks get). Однако эта операция имеет смысл только если spot price через месяц вырастет меньше чем на GOFO % - т.е. Bank B рассчитывает получить premium > lease rate (иначе он мог с тем же успехом invest his money at LIBOR с самого начала).