General Situation on markets.

Lala Chart · Post by **Lala Chart** » 08 May 2010 23:24

Guys, I took the liberty to open a new topic on general discussion.
Just read in the news that both Italian and French PM cancelled their visits to Moscow for the 9-th of May celebration.
Futures look negative as well.
Are we gonna have a huge sell off on Monday?
Any thoughts and opinions are welcome.
Many thanks.

worldCitizen · Post by **worldCitizen** » 09 May 2010 00:19

Lala Chart wrote:Guys, I took the liberty to open a new topic on general discussion.
Just read in the news that both Italian and French PM cancelled their visits to Moscow for the 9-th of May celebration.
Futures look negative as well.
Are we gonna have a huge sell off on Monday?
Any thoughts and opinions are welcome. Many thanks.

Black Monday? Да, в наше время это возможно. Но скорее всего, будет снижение рывками; после каждого рывка вниз любители будут охотиться за "дешёвыми" стоками. У кого регулярные стоки из SP500 списка, то лучше продать и переждать бурю. Покупать путы и шортить, это тема дня.

Post by **super mario** » 09 May 2010 16:16

Я бы разделил на краткосрочные и долгосрочные перспективы рынка.
Так вот, краткосрочные как всегда будут зависеть от того, кого большие игрoки могут быстро развести на бабло. Если найдется много желаюших пойти "short", то найдутся желаюшие довести это дело до margin call. Другими словами в краткосрочной перспективе рынок иррациональный.
В долгосрочной перспективe, в развитой (mature) экономике, бурного роста не будет, и будет наблюдатся спад, практически один к одному как с business cycles. Особенно усугубляет это дело безработица и аутсорсинг. Финансовый передел мира сейчас самый большой фокус, поэтому и разбивки банков скорее всего не будет.

Так что в понедельник может быть все, что угодно. Рынок давно оторвался от реальности. Такое мое субьективное мнение.

Lala Chart · Post by **Lala Chart** » 10 May 2010 03:51

I do agree the market is absolutely irrational these days. And this has nothing to do with a real state of economy.
Somehow, I feel that big players/gamers have not yet gotten out completely from the price range of the overbought market.
I think they still need some time before shorting it aggressively.
My feeling is that there will be a temporary up trend before another huge sell off. There should be a sell off because participants have absolutely different attitude to market activity these days. Nobody wants to hold the stock. Everyone wants to make quick money.
IMHO
Personally, I am going stop trading cause I am tired of casino I am unwillingly involved for the last 1,5 year.
Staying 40% in cash and 60% in dividends paying stock.
As you all know, I trade Canadian stock only and our market is absolutely commodities based. Thus, a little bit different from American.

Post by **super mario** » 10 May 2010 04:25

Good move. I think we will soon see some of the big fish fried.

Lala Chart · Post by **Lala Chart** » 10 May 2010 04:36

worldCitizen wrote:
Lala Chart wrote:Guys, I took the liberty to open a new topic on general discussion.
Just read in the news that both Italian and French PM cancelled their visits to Moscow for the 9-th of May celebration.
Futures look negative as well.
Are we gonna have a huge sell off on Monday?
Any thoughts and opinions are welcome. Many thanks.
Black Monday? Да, в наше время это возможно. Но скорее всего, будет снижение рывками; после каждого рывка вниз любители будут охотиться за "дешёвыми" стоками. У кого регулярные стоки из SP500 списка, то лучше продать и переждать бурю. Покупать путы и шортить, это тема дня.

It looks like there will be no Black Monday tomorrow. Futures are up, USD is down, gold is down, oil is up.
It's ridiculous! How can possibly the state of Greece economy ( the absence of any economy actually ) and EURO support move American markets. It's looks like big players were just searching for the excuse to short the market last week and small investors were wiped out again.

Post by **Stanford Wannabe** » 10 May 2010 04:42

Рынок будет трясти до выборов, imho. Народ накручивают, что всё плохо.

blanko27 · Post by **blanko27** » 10 May 2010 04:55

Lala Chart wrote:It's looks like big players were just searching for the excuse to short the market last week and small investors were wiped out again.

Lala, примите агностическую позицию видения рынка и тогда все встанет на свои места

Lala Chart · Post by **Lala Chart** » 10 May 2010 04:59

Agnostic? A eto kak in plain language?:-)
Just follow the market?

Lala Chart · Post by **Lala Chart** » 10 May 2010 05:19

Blanko,
Not from the theory, I know that any stock is tradable in any time with a profit.
However, the fundamental purpose of the market that is giving companies access to capital is jeopardized.
It's becoming a world casino that distracts investors. Do you understand what happens if there are only gamblers on the market?

worldCitizen · Post by **worldCitizen** » 10 May 2010 05:26

Волатильность самое лучшее время для моего предпочитаемого метода. К началу недели я лонг, надеюсь удачно соскочить к среде, после чего волатильность не намного спадёт. Насчёт быстрого трэйда, прикупить какой нить греческий сток? DSX, DRYS?

Post by **super mario** » 10 May 2010 06:05

Lala Chart wrote: It's becoming a world casino.

It's always been a casino.

SergeyVZ · Post by **SergeyVZ** » 10 May 2010 22:16

super mario wrote:It's always been a casino.

And "the house" always wins:

In the Q1, Goldman made money on every single trading day.

blanko27 · Post by **blanko27** » 11 May 2010 03:25

Lala Chart wrote:Agnostic? A eto kak in plain language?:-)
Just follow the market?

Lala, извините, но все теряют, особенно те, кто все знают, не хеджируют позиции и много спекулируют...

Post by **super mario** » 11 May 2010 03:44

SergeyVZ wrote:
super mario wrote:It's always been a casino.
And "the house" always wins:

In the Q1, Goldman made money on every single trading day.

"That's how God's work looks like."

Lala Chart · Post by **Lala Chart** » 11 May 2010 03:55

SergeyVZ · Post by **SergeyVZ** » 15 May 2010 01:04

"Sell in May and go away"

Lala Chart · Post by **Lala Chart** » 15 May 2010 02:54

SergeyVZ wrote:"Sell in May and go away"

Sure

Lala Chart · Post by **Lala Chart** » 17 May 2010 03:41

Huge sell off to expect, Ladies and Gentlemen?!
Dow futures are 114 down.

Post by **super mario** » 17 May 2010 05:19

Lala Chart wrote:Huge sell off to expect, Ladies and Gentlemen?!
Dow futures are 114 down.

I would not count on that on Monday.

SergeyVZ · Post by **SergeyVZ** » 17 May 2010 17:30

Падение Шанхая - предвестник падения SP500 ?

Post by **super mario** » 17 May 2010 21:01

May 17 (Bloomberg) -- “Reverse diversification” boosted global demand for long-term U.S. financial assets to a record as the European fiscal crisis may be beginning to translate into increased demand for dollar assets.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... 6DV8&pos=1

Lala Chart · Post by **Lala Chart** » 18 May 2010 01:20

What do you guys think about oil? Will it pull back soon?
I am sooooo tempted to buy oil stock.
Thanks.

Одинаковый · Post by **Одинаковый** » 18 May 2010 01:52

Lala Chart wrote:What do you guys think about oil? Will it pull back soon?
I am sooooo tempted to buy oil stock.
Thanks.

Вы , извините, такие вопросы задаете что хоть сиди хоть падай. Думаете тут на форуме есть хоть один человек который может иметь какое то весомое мнение о том куда пойдет нефть?

Lala Chart · Post by **Lala Chart** » 18 May 2010 02:16

I do think that there are guys who have their vision on how oil is going to move.
Generally, oil tends to peak at the beginning to the middle of May.
It didn't happen this year. Probably because USD was moving higher at the same period.
And generally oil moves opposite to USD.
Thus, there is at least one clue,- as long as EURO is falling and USD is going up, oil tends to go down.
Unfortunately, I do not follow currencies, but I am pretty sure there are guys here who trade currencies.

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