А тем временем ставка чуть-чуть опустилась.
Вообще я смотрю модная тема это нынче. По-емоему полно "жареных" статей у обеих сторон. Так что лучше никого не слушать и руководствоваться только своими соображениями.
Why Housing Is About to Go "Pop!"
Moderator: Komissar
-
AnyaGal
- Уже с Приветом
- Posts: 5771
- Joined: 02 Dec 1999 10:01
- Location: Saint-Petersburg --> Bellevue, WA
-
Likenew
- Уже с Приветом
- Posts: 12059
- Joined: 15 Feb 2002 10:01
- Location: TX
-
ax3816
- Уже с Приветом
- Posts: 1064
- Joined: 01 Jan 2004 23:53
-
ax3816
- Уже с Приветом
- Posts: 1064
- Joined: 01 Jan 2004 23:53
New-home sales tumble 11.8 percent
Rising mortgage rates seen cooling market
REUTERS
Updated: 10:47 a.m. ET May 26, 2004
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/5067308/
WASHINGTON - Sales of new U.S. homes sagged well below expectations in April to post their biggest monthly drop in more than ten years as rising mortgage interest rates cooled the busy housing market, a government report showed on Wednesday.
...
April's rate was the lowest level of new home sales since November in what is normally the peak season for real estate sales. The decline — the largest monthly drop since January 1994 — could signal the end of a housing boom fueled by the lowest mortgage interest rates since the early 1960s.
Mortgage applications fell last week for the third straight week, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported earlier. At the same time, home resales rose to their second highest level on record last month as undecided home seekers acted before rates rise even higher, data released on Tuesday by the National Association of Realtors showed.
Rising mortgage rates seen cooling market
REUTERS
Updated: 10:47 a.m. ET May 26, 2004
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/5067308/
WASHINGTON - Sales of new U.S. homes sagged well below expectations in April to post their biggest monthly drop in more than ten years as rising mortgage interest rates cooled the busy housing market, a government report showed on Wednesday.
...
April's rate was the lowest level of new home sales since November in what is normally the peak season for real estate sales. The decline — the largest monthly drop since January 1994 — could signal the end of a housing boom fueled by the lowest mortgage interest rates since the early 1960s.
Mortgage applications fell last week for the third straight week, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported earlier. At the same time, home resales rose to their second highest level on record last month as undecided home seekers acted before rates rise even higher, data released on Tuesday by the National Association of Realtors showed.
-
Likenew
- Уже с Приветом
- Posts: 12059
- Joined: 15 Feb 2002 10:01
- Location: TX
-
ax3816
- Уже с Приветом
- Posts: 1064
- Joined: 01 Jan 2004 23:53
Более-менее эмоционально уравновешенная статья:
Buy now? Ughh!
http://money.cnn.com/2004/04/19/pf/your ... /index.htm
А также сравнение housing markets
Top housing markets
http://money.cnn.com/2004/04/19/pf/your ... /index.htm
Buy now? Ughh!
http://money.cnn.com/2004/04/19/pf/your ... /index.htm
А также сравнение housing markets
Top housing markets
http://money.cnn.com/2004/04/19/pf/your ... /index.htm
-
Слоняра
- Уже с Приветом
- Posts: 1193
- Joined: 29 Dec 2003 17:19
- Location: NY
-
ax3816
- Уже с Приветом
- Posts: 1064
- Joined: 01 Jan 2004 23:53
Слоняра wrote:Alex - URL одинаковие....
Подправьте второй на правильный, а?
Whoops...
Поскольку прошло уже 12 часов - я не могу отредактировать тот пост. Поэтому публикую ссылку снова:
Top housing markets
The housing boom continued in the first quarter.
Home prices nationwide spiked 7 percent in the first quarter, according to the latest survey by the National Association of Realtors, with the median sales price for existing family homes hitting $161,500. Thirty-one of 117 markets had double-digits increases. See where your area ranks.
http://money.cnn.com/pf/features/lists/tophousing/
-
Kalifornian
- Уже с Приветом
- Posts: 7838
- Joined: 16 Oct 2003 22:06
- Location: Kalifornia
-
Kalifornian
- Уже с Приветом
- Posts: 7838
- Joined: 16 Oct 2003 22:06
- Location: Kalifornia
How high can homes go in some overheated markets?
ЖУТЬ!
John Karevoll, analyst at DataQuick. wouldn't be surprised to see Southern California prices rise another 25 percent by autumn.
Matt Barnard, COO of a telecommunications firm, has been waiting in vain for the market to cool since 2001, when he moved to Menlo Park, Calif.. Though he and his wife, a marketer, both have incomes, they can't compete in an area where 1,800-square-foot homes are about a million dollars. They've been renting a house.
Others who have plunged into the market are resorting to desperation tactics to win a house: writing personal letters to sellers, offering complementary musical performances and other services and waiving home inspections or other contract contingencies.
"The person who bought my house wrote a letter saying how they envisioned having their children riding their bikes in the neighborhood ... cooking nice dinners in our nice kitchen," says Caterina Tassone, who sold her Washington-area home in April.
Tassone, a physicist, lost out in several bidding battles before landing a house last week for well above the asking price. She didn't write a letter, but made an implicit plea for sympathy - attending an open house with her four children, mother and mother-in law. "The real estate agent felt sorry for me," Tassone says.
To have a chance at a $650,000 home, buyers must top the asking price by roughly $50,000, Waldron says. Those who aren't comfortable at first lose bidding wars.
"How do the buyers react? They say, "We lost this one, we don't want to lose again.' " So they go over asking prices by $50,000. " "Let's blow people away and get this,' " clients tell Waldron.
ЖУТЬ!
-
B
- Уже с Приветом
- Posts: 1509
- Joined: 12 Apr 2001 09:01
- Location: CA
-
Komissar
- Уже с Приветом
- Posts: 64661
- Joined: 12 Jul 2002 16:38
- Location: г.Москва, ул. Б. Лубянка, д.2
-
ax3816
- Уже с Приветом
- Posts: 1064
- Joined: 01 Jan 2004 23:53
Kalifornian wrote:ax3816 wrote:http://money.cnn.com/pf/features/lists/tophousing/
Сравниваются 2002 и 2003? Не то!
Ну, что было
2004 год ещё во втором квартале - недостаточно информации сравнивать 2003 и 2004.
Вот ещё статейка от 12 мая 2004 года, но там совсем мало информации, зато цифры для первого квартала 2004.
Top housing markets
First-quarter numbers are in: Home prices hit higher highs and lower lows.
May 12, 2004: 10:13 AM EDT
By Sarah Max, CNN/Money senior writer
http://money.cnn.com/2004/05/12/real_es ... /index.htm
Why some markets are hot, others not
Over the past year home prices shot up 31% in Las Vegas but sunk 6% in Akron. What gives?
May 24, 2004: 3:40 PM EDT
By Sarah Max, CNN/Money senior writer
http://money.cnn.com/2004/05/19/real_es ... /index.htm
-
kron
- Уже с Приветом
- Posts: 5422
- Joined: 04 Mar 2004 04:30
- Location: Ukraine --> USA
The Bear's Lair: Empty mansions
By Martin Hutchinson
Published 5/24/2004 11:28 AM
WASHINGTON, May 24 (UPI) -- "In my Father's house are many mansions" says the Bible's King James Version (John, 14:2). I always thought that description made Heaven sound like an American suburb, rather overdeveloped in a building boom. This time around, though, many of those mansions are going to be empty.
CNN/Money Tuesday featured as "Tycoon in the making" the blithe young Robert Cromer family, who have, based on a main salary of $50,000 per annum, accumulated $3.2 million in housing assets in six years, in three different states. Naturally, readers scanned their story eagerly to learn their secret. Well below the lead paragraph, it was revealed that to buy the properties the Cromers have accumulated debt of $2 million, predominantly in the form of 5 year interest only adjustable rate mortgages. The rents receivable after expenses on the family's properties are $3,100 per month less than the interest payments, even at spring 2004's record low interest rates, and their payment outflows will increase by $20,000 per annum for each percentage point rise in interest rates.
The Cromers have alleviated their cash flow problems so far by going into the residential real estate sales business, thus increasing their earnings to $175,000 per annum in this buoyant market. Of course, that doesn't actually reduce their exposure to a real estate downturn!
The Cromer family's mistakes are elementary. You don't finance a long term asset, like a house, with 5 year money. You don't finance an asset with a fixed money yield with floating rate debt. You don't enter into commitments that leave you substantially under water on an operating basis month by month, with the expectation that an ever rising real estate market will bail you out. Investors who make these mistakes on a single property, or on a portfolio of properties that is modest in terms of their overall assets, may survive the downturn by investing more cash, derived from other areas. Investors like the Cromers, who make these mistakes on such a large scale in relation to their finances are bound eventually to find out the hard way what sound financing means.
The surprise is not that retail real estate investors are financing themselves this way -- in every real estate boom, optimists appear who do the same thing. The surprises are, first that after the savings and loan crisis of only a decade ago, mortgage lenders are prepared to lend them such relatively huge amounts of money on such inappropriate terms. Second, more serious, it is surprising that a reputable media outlet would hold up this family as an example to follow to its often unsophisticated readers. Just as in 1999 brokers could be blamed for hyping to ridiculous prices stocks that had few underlying activities or possibility thereof, and in 2001 Enron executives could be criticized for allowing their derivatives operations to grow to the point where they bankrupted the company, so too in 2004 it is fair to criticize those who ought to know better and don't, and thereby lure unsuspecting Americans into a trap of excessive debt and eventual impoverishment. By making the housing bubble extend itself further, they are intensifying the downturn to follow, damaging the U.S. economy, and forcing into difficulties in the subsequent downturn millions of Americans who had nothing to do with the initial speculation.
The principal threat to the U.S. housing market comes from rising interest rates. Short term interest rates have now been negative in real terms (i.e., net of inflation) since the middle of 2001, which has enabled the United States to stage a pretty-looking economic recovery, but has also driven huge amounts of investment into the housing sector, investment that is likely to prove unprofitable once short and long term interest rates return to their natural levels.
Economically, house prices are determined on the demand side by population flows, interest rates and the economy, and on the supply side by construction costs and local land prices. This is why a bubble can appear in one location and not another. If population pressure in a location is low, then land in that area will remain plentiful, and hence house prices will be constrained from rising at more than a modest rate. Any greater rise will bring in new construction companies to take advantage of the arbitrage between prices and construction costs -- barriers to entry in the home-building sector are in the United States very low indeed, so new local construction activity quickly springs up when this opportunity emerges.
The more dangerous situation arises when land is scarce, either because of a physical lack thereof, (as in downtown London or Tokyo in the 1980s) because of rapidly rising population in a confined area, because of legal restrictions, or all of the above. In such a case, land becomes scarce, its price rises uncontrollably, and real estate prices escalate far beyond the level of construction costs, let alone local incomes.
In Tokyo in the 1980s, the principal constraint was sheer space; the area within a reasonable commuting distance on Tokyo's suburban rail system was bounded on one side by the sea and was restricted by small agricultural holdings whose use could not be converted. Hence there occurred a rise in real estate prices that left the Imperial Palace gardens in 1989 worth more than the state of California. Going forward, the aging of Japan's society, the country's immigration restrictions and the beginnings of a gradual decline in population will together ensure that the bubble of the late 1980s will never be repeated, and that Tokyo real estate costs will if anything continue to decline.
In London, too, the arcane and Byzantine restrictions on new home-building, which produce huge delays and leave large areas of "green belt" around London unavailable for development, and the union-ridden and inefficient public transport system, led house prices to be extremely high in terms of the local earning capacity, even though the city's population before 1980 was gently declining. Add EU yuppies attracted by low income taxes at the top end and an uncontrollable inflow of asylum seekers at the bottom end, and you have a recipe for the London real estate market to head towards Jupiter.
The U.S. real estate market was traditionally immune to these effects, except for small enclaves in Manhattan and Silicon Valley (housing in which became a "positional good" -- unnecessary, but attractive for social snobbery reasons) because of the sheer size of the country in relation to its population. However, rapid immigration since 1980, lack of investment in road transport infrastructure (which has thrown the burden of extra population on overstretched suburban rail systems) and a decade of excessive monetary creation have had the inevitable effect of causing land prices in several other cities beyond Manhattan and Silicon Valley to join in a rapid price appreciation. In Cleveland, Omaha or Dallas, where population has not grown greatly and suburban transport remains adequate, house price appreciation remains modest, but in the major cities of the bi-coastal "blue states" a scarcity-fueled price appreciation has taken hold.
The future of house prices in those cities where rapid appreciation has taken place is undoubtedly bearish, but it is not clear how bearish. One sign that much of the appreciation has been caused by very low interest rates is the rental market, where rental yields are at record low levels in a number of cities and the economic recovery of 2003-04 has not affected the depressed occupancy levels of rental property. In addition, a sharp decline in loan underwriting standards, fueled by uncontrollable growth at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, has raised the level of home ownership in the U.S. population to record levels. Of course, in cities where this has combined with rapid price appreciation, the potential for a market collapse, fueled by mortgage delinquency, is thereby enhanced.
Nevertheless, a return in the bi-coastal cities to the historic pattern of U.S. house prices governed primarily by construction costs appears unlikely. Political will is lacking to rein in the activities of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, so mortgage money will continue to be readily available, and second mortgages and refinancings will be used to cover up mortgage delinquencies. As in much of Europe, the flow of immigration appears out of control, so the population pressure in the cities where immigrants congregate will remain great. Environmentalist opposition to new projects and tight state budgets are likely to ensure that the transportation network around big cities remains inadequate. Thus one of the United States' major advantages over its competitors, the availability of chap residential real estate, is likely to have disappeared forever, at least on the coasts.
Which is not to say that as interest rates rise we won't have a pretty nasty housing recession. According to the National Association of Homebuilders Wednesday, optimism among homebuilders remains very high, in spite of rising interest rates, so a housing glut, at least in relative terms, seems unavoidable.
The Cromers are likely to find themselves hit by a multiple whammy, of poor rental occupancy rates, declining house prices, an illiquid home sale market and rising interest rates on their adjustable rate mortgages. Their financial survival seems unlikely.
But at least they got featured in CNN/Money.
By Martin Hutchinson
Published 5/24/2004 11:28 AM
WASHINGTON, May 24 (UPI) -- "In my Father's house are many mansions" says the Bible's King James Version (John, 14:2). I always thought that description made Heaven sound like an American suburb, rather overdeveloped in a building boom. This time around, though, many of those mansions are going to be empty.
CNN/Money Tuesday featured as "Tycoon in the making" the blithe young Robert Cromer family, who have, based on a main salary of $50,000 per annum, accumulated $3.2 million in housing assets in six years, in three different states. Naturally, readers scanned their story eagerly to learn their secret. Well below the lead paragraph, it was revealed that to buy the properties the Cromers have accumulated debt of $2 million, predominantly in the form of 5 year interest only adjustable rate mortgages. The rents receivable after expenses on the family's properties are $3,100 per month less than the interest payments, even at spring 2004's record low interest rates, and their payment outflows will increase by $20,000 per annum for each percentage point rise in interest rates.
The Cromers have alleviated their cash flow problems so far by going into the residential real estate sales business, thus increasing their earnings to $175,000 per annum in this buoyant market. Of course, that doesn't actually reduce their exposure to a real estate downturn!
The Cromer family's mistakes are elementary. You don't finance a long term asset, like a house, with 5 year money. You don't finance an asset with a fixed money yield with floating rate debt. You don't enter into commitments that leave you substantially under water on an operating basis month by month, with the expectation that an ever rising real estate market will bail you out. Investors who make these mistakes on a single property, or on a portfolio of properties that is modest in terms of their overall assets, may survive the downturn by investing more cash, derived from other areas. Investors like the Cromers, who make these mistakes on such a large scale in relation to their finances are bound eventually to find out the hard way what sound financing means.
The surprise is not that retail real estate investors are financing themselves this way -- in every real estate boom, optimists appear who do the same thing. The surprises are, first that after the savings and loan crisis of only a decade ago, mortgage lenders are prepared to lend them such relatively huge amounts of money on such inappropriate terms. Second, more serious, it is surprising that a reputable media outlet would hold up this family as an example to follow to its often unsophisticated readers. Just as in 1999 brokers could be blamed for hyping to ridiculous prices stocks that had few underlying activities or possibility thereof, and in 2001 Enron executives could be criticized for allowing their derivatives operations to grow to the point where they bankrupted the company, so too in 2004 it is fair to criticize those who ought to know better and don't, and thereby lure unsuspecting Americans into a trap of excessive debt and eventual impoverishment. By making the housing bubble extend itself further, they are intensifying the downturn to follow, damaging the U.S. economy, and forcing into difficulties in the subsequent downturn millions of Americans who had nothing to do with the initial speculation.
The principal threat to the U.S. housing market comes from rising interest rates. Short term interest rates have now been negative in real terms (i.e., net of inflation) since the middle of 2001, which has enabled the United States to stage a pretty-looking economic recovery, but has also driven huge amounts of investment into the housing sector, investment that is likely to prove unprofitable once short and long term interest rates return to their natural levels.
Economically, house prices are determined on the demand side by population flows, interest rates and the economy, and on the supply side by construction costs and local land prices. This is why a bubble can appear in one location and not another. If population pressure in a location is low, then land in that area will remain plentiful, and hence house prices will be constrained from rising at more than a modest rate. Any greater rise will bring in new construction companies to take advantage of the arbitrage between prices and construction costs -- barriers to entry in the home-building sector are in the United States very low indeed, so new local construction activity quickly springs up when this opportunity emerges.
The more dangerous situation arises when land is scarce, either because of a physical lack thereof, (as in downtown London or Tokyo in the 1980s) because of rapidly rising population in a confined area, because of legal restrictions, or all of the above. In such a case, land becomes scarce, its price rises uncontrollably, and real estate prices escalate far beyond the level of construction costs, let alone local incomes.
In Tokyo in the 1980s, the principal constraint was sheer space; the area within a reasonable commuting distance on Tokyo's suburban rail system was bounded on one side by the sea and was restricted by small agricultural holdings whose use could not be converted. Hence there occurred a rise in real estate prices that left the Imperial Palace gardens in 1989 worth more than the state of California. Going forward, the aging of Japan's society, the country's immigration restrictions and the beginnings of a gradual decline in population will together ensure that the bubble of the late 1980s will never be repeated, and that Tokyo real estate costs will if anything continue to decline.
In London, too, the arcane and Byzantine restrictions on new home-building, which produce huge delays and leave large areas of "green belt" around London unavailable for development, and the union-ridden and inefficient public transport system, led house prices to be extremely high in terms of the local earning capacity, even though the city's population before 1980 was gently declining. Add EU yuppies attracted by low income taxes at the top end and an uncontrollable inflow of asylum seekers at the bottom end, and you have a recipe for the London real estate market to head towards Jupiter.
The U.S. real estate market was traditionally immune to these effects, except for small enclaves in Manhattan and Silicon Valley (housing in which became a "positional good" -- unnecessary, but attractive for social snobbery reasons) because of the sheer size of the country in relation to its population. However, rapid immigration since 1980, lack of investment in road transport infrastructure (which has thrown the burden of extra population on overstretched suburban rail systems) and a decade of excessive monetary creation have had the inevitable effect of causing land prices in several other cities beyond Manhattan and Silicon Valley to join in a rapid price appreciation. In Cleveland, Omaha or Dallas, where population has not grown greatly and suburban transport remains adequate, house price appreciation remains modest, but in the major cities of the bi-coastal "blue states" a scarcity-fueled price appreciation has taken hold.
The future of house prices in those cities where rapid appreciation has taken place is undoubtedly bearish, but it is not clear how bearish. One sign that much of the appreciation has been caused by very low interest rates is the rental market, where rental yields are at record low levels in a number of cities and the economic recovery of 2003-04 has not affected the depressed occupancy levels of rental property. In addition, a sharp decline in loan underwriting standards, fueled by uncontrollable growth at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, has raised the level of home ownership in the U.S. population to record levels. Of course, in cities where this has combined with rapid price appreciation, the potential for a market collapse, fueled by mortgage delinquency, is thereby enhanced.
Nevertheless, a return in the bi-coastal cities to the historic pattern of U.S. house prices governed primarily by construction costs appears unlikely. Political will is lacking to rein in the activities of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, so mortgage money will continue to be readily available, and second mortgages and refinancings will be used to cover up mortgage delinquencies. As in much of Europe, the flow of immigration appears out of control, so the population pressure in the cities where immigrants congregate will remain great. Environmentalist opposition to new projects and tight state budgets are likely to ensure that the transportation network around big cities remains inadequate. Thus one of the United States' major advantages over its competitors, the availability of chap residential real estate, is likely to have disappeared forever, at least on the coasts.
Which is not to say that as interest rates rise we won't have a pretty nasty housing recession. According to the National Association of Homebuilders Wednesday, optimism among homebuilders remains very high, in spite of rising interest rates, so a housing glut, at least in relative terms, seems unavoidable.
The Cromers are likely to find themselves hit by a multiple whammy, of poor rental occupancy rates, declining house prices, an illiquid home sale market and rising interest rates on their adjustable rate mortgages. Their financial survival seems unlikely.
But at least they got featured in CNN/Money.
Мы бьемся насмерть во вторник за среду, но не понимаем уже четверга...
-
GoodBuyAmerica
- Уже с Приветом
- Posts: 4352
- Joined: 12 Jul 2002 06:38
- Location: San Diego
kron wrote:The Bear's Lair: Empty mansions...
Забавная статейка. Стакан наполовину полон или наполовину пуст? Меня поразило то, что эта семейка увеличила свой доход до $175K с $50K. Конечно, скупая дома под 5y ARM interest only ребята здорово рискуют, особенно с отрицательным cashflow. Это как заказывать мизэр с двумя дырками.
Но если они придумают метод повышать доход чтобы покрывать negative cashflow, why not?"...обращаться на Вы с большой буквы - это ж каким интеллигентом нужно быть потомственным, злокозненным!" из анонимных постов в ЖЖ
-
Komissar
- Уже с Приветом
- Posts: 64661
- Joined: 12 Jul 2002 16:38
- Location: г.Москва, ул. Б. Лубянка, д.2
Ignorance Is Bliss
> > The Daily Reckoning
> > New York, New York
> > Friday, 4 June 2004
> > ---------------------
> > *** Investment tips from Amtrak...
> > *** Conspiracy theories... what do the markets know?
> > *** New jobs... jet planes... assisted suicide and more... !
> > ---------------------
> > Yesterday we made the journey to New York... by rail.
> > As soon as we had boarded the train in Baltimore, the
> laptops came out and the fingers started tapping. Cell
> phones rang too... and people chattered away.
> > The fellow behind us spent almost the whole trip trying to
> close a real estate deal. The woman in front of us talked
> about how much her neighbor's house just sold for. It
> reminded us of the last time we noticed people on a train
> getting so worked up about something. It was 5 years ago,
> and they were talking about tech stocks. The know-it-alls
> thought it was perfectly normal that people were buying
> tech stocks at outlandish prices. In fact, they didn't even
> notice that prices were outlandish. Everyone knew it was a
> new era and prices would go up forever. You couldn't pay
> too much for AOL/Time Warner, they said.
> > Now they see nothing odd about real estate prices doubling
> every three years.
> > Even in Baltimore a kind of real estate mania has gotten a
> grip on people. The Baltimore real estate market hit a peak
> in the 1920s. Since then, it's been going downhill, in real
> terms. And the population of the city has been falling for
> the last 40 years... a third of the city has left, with
> whole blocks boarded up.
> > But now, houses that no one wanted to own a few years ago
> find several owners - every year. They are flipped like
> tech stocks... leveraged 100% and more... with adjustable
> rate mortgages that no one ever expects to pay off.
> > We heard about a house around Patterson Park that doubled
> and doubled again - flipped twice - before anyone settled
> on it. Patterson Park, by the way, used to be a place where
> you would take a stroll in the evening and not come back.
> The police would find your body in the morning... with
> multiple stab wounds in the back. They'd call it a
> 'suicide.' "Nobody goes walking in the park at night unless
> they wanna die," the cops would say.
> > But now, a house on the park is no longer a health hazard;
> it's a ticket to wealth.
> > How could this be? 'The park is a nice attraction,' say the
> newspapers, trying to explain the mania. 'It's close to the
> hospital,' say the neighbors. 'The bars are just down the
> street,' say the residents. But the bars, the park and the
> hospital have all been there for at least 150 years. Why
> are prices going up now?
> > We don't know, but we can take a guess. The Fed has been
> giving away money for less than the inflation rate for more
> than a year... and now the money supply is rising at a $2
> trillion per year pace. All this EZ credit has triggered an
> old-fashioned speculative bubble in residential property.
> > Not only in Charm City are prices rising absurdly. In
> California, people pay more than a million dollars for what
> might have been a starter home a few years ago. In London,
> property prices dominate every dinner party
> conversation... and have suckered the public into some of
> the highest debt levels in the Western world.
> > Only twice in history has the central bank's key lending
> rate dropped to 1%. The first time was during the Great
> Depression. The emergency, then, was clear and present. But
> today, the only emergency we see is sordid and electoral.
> But as a result, more people owe more money than ever
> before. They've leveraged their own houses at the lowest
> interest rates in nearly two generations. And now more of
> them are going broke than ever before.
> > But who cares? The houses sprout wings and fly. Even in
> Baltimore, speculators are making money. [Ed. Note: As Bill
> notes above, real estate is in the grips of a good old-
> fashioned speculative frenzy. And like all bubbles, it must
> pop. When? The Fed meets on June 29...
> > The Total Destruction of the U.S. Housing Market
> http://www.agora-inc.com/reports/DRI/housing512/ ]
> > We turn to Addison, in Baltimore, for more news...
> > ---------------------
> > Addison Wiggin, from "Charm City"...
> > - Fed fund futures give a 100% probability that the Fed
> will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at their next
> meeting, in the final week of June, and a 100% probability
> that rates will have risen by 50 basis points by the 10th
> of August. The futures market is rarely wrong with its
> predictions.
> > - Are higher interest rates about to prick the bubble? We
> don't know when this whole credit-induced madness will come
> crashing down, but we suspect that the end can't be too far
> away, can it?
> > - But 50 basis points are unlikely to cause too much alarm
> at this stage. In fact, as you will no doubt be aware,
> markets have already adjusted. We saw gold dragged back
> down - kicking and screaming - from the lofty heights above
> $428 an ounce. Today the 'relic' trades at $388. Even the
> stinky dollar has managed a small rally over the last
> quarter.
> > - Either way, there can be no doubting that recent Federal
> flatulence has brought deflation back onto the agenda. For
> some reason, investors have actually started to worry that
> the Fed might let, or even cause, deflation to get a
> toehold on the market.
> > - Yesterday, investors showed their fears, whatever they
> may be, by selling stocks. The Nasdaq suffered the greatest
> shellacking, dropping the best part of 30 points, or 1.5%,
> to 1,960. The other senior indices followed the tech
> stocks' lead... the Dow dropped 67, to close at 10,195,
> while the S&P gave back 8 points. It closed the session at
> 1,117.
> > - Have they forgotten who the chairman is? Do they not
> remember the Greenspan Put and comments like "The United
> States is nowhere close to sliding into a pernicious
> deflation" or "We at the Federal Reserve recognize that
> deflation is a possibility... the potential consequences are
> very substantial and could be quite negative."
> > - And so it is against this backdrop of deflationary
> sentiment that we analyze the latest money supply figures.
> As Bill reported yesterday, the bean counters report M3
> increasing at a 20% annual rate. In the last 4 weeks, M3
> has gone up by $155 billion! Predictably, with numbers as
> mind-boggling as these, we weren't the only sleuths to
> notice.
> > - Conspiracy theorists came up with all sorts of
> explanations for this. "There must be a crisis of historic
> proportions coming," cries an alarmed essayist at
> Safehaven.com, "and the Federal Reserve Bank of the United
> States is making sure that there is enough liquidity in
> place to protect our nation's fragile financial system. The
> amazing thing is, the Fed's actions mean they know what is
> about to happen. They are aware of a terrible, horrific
> imminent event. What could it be?"
> > - "I reject the notion that the Fed is acting
> irresponsibly," continues our worrywart, "No, something is
> up, bigger than we have ever seen in the history of the
> United States... the amount of liquidity is too large. The
> Fed is deflating the value of the monetary base by a fifth!
> Why are they willing to do this? Wisdom says something bad
> is up - big time."
> > The Daily Reckoning
> > New York, New York
> > Friday, 4 June 2004
> > ---------------------
> > *** Investment tips from Amtrak...
> > *** Conspiracy theories... what do the markets know?
> > *** New jobs... jet planes... assisted suicide and more... !
> > ---------------------
> > Yesterday we made the journey to New York... by rail.
> > As soon as we had boarded the train in Baltimore, the
> laptops came out and the fingers started tapping. Cell
> phones rang too... and people chattered away.
> > The fellow behind us spent almost the whole trip trying to
> close a real estate deal. The woman in front of us talked
> about how much her neighbor's house just sold for. It
> reminded us of the last time we noticed people on a train
> getting so worked up about something. It was 5 years ago,
> and they were talking about tech stocks. The know-it-alls
> thought it was perfectly normal that people were buying
> tech stocks at outlandish prices. In fact, they didn't even
> notice that prices were outlandish. Everyone knew it was a
> new era and prices would go up forever. You couldn't pay
> too much for AOL/Time Warner, they said.
> > Now they see nothing odd about real estate prices doubling
> every three years.
> > Even in Baltimore a kind of real estate mania has gotten a
> grip on people. The Baltimore real estate market hit a peak
> in the 1920s. Since then, it's been going downhill, in real
> terms. And the population of the city has been falling for
> the last 40 years... a third of the city has left, with
> whole blocks boarded up.
> > But now, houses that no one wanted to own a few years ago
> find several owners - every year. They are flipped like
> tech stocks... leveraged 100% and more... with adjustable
> rate mortgages that no one ever expects to pay off.
> > We heard about a house around Patterson Park that doubled
> and doubled again - flipped twice - before anyone settled
> on it. Patterson Park, by the way, used to be a place where
> you would take a stroll in the evening and not come back.
> The police would find your body in the morning... with
> multiple stab wounds in the back. They'd call it a
> 'suicide.' "Nobody goes walking in the park at night unless
> they wanna die," the cops would say.
> > But now, a house on the park is no longer a health hazard;
> it's a ticket to wealth.
> > How could this be? 'The park is a nice attraction,' say the
> newspapers, trying to explain the mania. 'It's close to the
> hospital,' say the neighbors. 'The bars are just down the
> street,' say the residents. But the bars, the park and the
> hospital have all been there for at least 150 years. Why
> are prices going up now?
> > We don't know, but we can take a guess. The Fed has been
> giving away money for less than the inflation rate for more
> than a year... and now the money supply is rising at a $2
> trillion per year pace. All this EZ credit has triggered an
> old-fashioned speculative bubble in residential property.
> > Not only in Charm City are prices rising absurdly. In
> California, people pay more than a million dollars for what
> might have been a starter home a few years ago. In London,
> property prices dominate every dinner party
> conversation... and have suckered the public into some of
> the highest debt levels in the Western world.
> > Only twice in history has the central bank's key lending
> rate dropped to 1%. The first time was during the Great
> Depression. The emergency, then, was clear and present. But
> today, the only emergency we see is sordid and electoral.
> But as a result, more people owe more money than ever
> before. They've leveraged their own houses at the lowest
> interest rates in nearly two generations. And now more of
> them are going broke than ever before.
> > But who cares? The houses sprout wings and fly. Even in
> Baltimore, speculators are making money. [Ed. Note: As Bill
> notes above, real estate is in the grips of a good old-
> fashioned speculative frenzy. And like all bubbles, it must
> pop. When? The Fed meets on June 29...
> > The Total Destruction of the U.S. Housing Market
> http://www.agora-inc.com/reports/DRI/housing512/ ]
> > We turn to Addison, in Baltimore, for more news...
> > ---------------------
> > Addison Wiggin, from "Charm City"...
> > - Fed fund futures give a 100% probability that the Fed
> will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at their next
> meeting, in the final week of June, and a 100% probability
> that rates will have risen by 50 basis points by the 10th
> of August. The futures market is rarely wrong with its
> predictions.
> > - Are higher interest rates about to prick the bubble? We
> don't know when this whole credit-induced madness will come
> crashing down, but we suspect that the end can't be too far
> away, can it?
> > - But 50 basis points are unlikely to cause too much alarm
> at this stage. In fact, as you will no doubt be aware,
> markets have already adjusted. We saw gold dragged back
> down - kicking and screaming - from the lofty heights above
> $428 an ounce. Today the 'relic' trades at $388. Even the
> stinky dollar has managed a small rally over the last
> quarter.
> > - Either way, there can be no doubting that recent Federal
> flatulence has brought deflation back onto the agenda. For
> some reason, investors have actually started to worry that
> the Fed might let, or even cause, deflation to get a
> toehold on the market.
> > - Yesterday, investors showed their fears, whatever they
> may be, by selling stocks. The Nasdaq suffered the greatest
> shellacking, dropping the best part of 30 points, or 1.5%,
> to 1,960. The other senior indices followed the tech
> stocks' lead... the Dow dropped 67, to close at 10,195,
> while the S&P gave back 8 points. It closed the session at
> 1,117.
> > - Have they forgotten who the chairman is? Do they not
> remember the Greenspan Put and comments like "The United
> States is nowhere close to sliding into a pernicious
> deflation" or "We at the Federal Reserve recognize that
> deflation is a possibility... the potential consequences are
> very substantial and could be quite negative."
> > - And so it is against this backdrop of deflationary
> sentiment that we analyze the latest money supply figures.
> As Bill reported yesterday, the bean counters report M3
> increasing at a 20% annual rate. In the last 4 weeks, M3
> has gone up by $155 billion! Predictably, with numbers as
> mind-boggling as these, we weren't the only sleuths to
> notice.
> > - Conspiracy theorists came up with all sorts of
> explanations for this. "There must be a crisis of historic
> proportions coming," cries an alarmed essayist at
> Safehaven.com, "and the Federal Reserve Bank of the United
> States is making sure that there is enough liquidity in
> place to protect our nation's fragile financial system. The
> amazing thing is, the Fed's actions mean they know what is
> about to happen. They are aware of a terrible, horrific
> imminent event. What could it be?"
> > - "I reject the notion that the Fed is acting
> irresponsibly," continues our worrywart, "No, something is
> up, bigger than we have ever seen in the history of the
> United States... the amount of liquidity is too large. The
> Fed is deflating the value of the monetary base by a fifth!
> Why are they willing to do this? Wisdom says something bad
> is up - big time."
-
kuznechik
- Уже с Приветом
- Posts: 3106
- Joined: 02 Jul 2002 02:34
- Location: Kiev--->USA
Good article. All is left for us to do is sit and wait what happens. Noone really knows for sure.
Рука не поднялась переслать эту статью подруге, которая собирается сеттле for high 800К. через пару дней. Думаю она посчитала бы статью такого рода, посланную мной как личное оскорбление + ужастный характер с моей стороны.
Рука не поднялась переслать эту статью подруге, которая собирается сеттле for high 800К. через пару дней. Думаю она посчитала бы статью такого рода, посланную мной как личное оскорбление + ужастный характер с моей стороны.
-
ax3816
- Уже с Приветом
- Posts: 1064
- Joined: 01 Jan 2004 23:53
Очень рекоммендую прочитать следующую статью из The Washington Monthly от April 2004. Просто замечательная статья - без эмоций и с хорошими объяснениями кто такие Government Sponsored Entities - Fannie Mae и Freddie Mac и их связь с pension funds and mutual funds и откуда у них появились деньги покупать моргичи.
There Goes the Neighborhood
Why home prices are about to plummet--and take the recovery with them.
By Benjamin Wallace-Wells
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/featur ... wells.html
There Goes the Neighborhood
Why home prices are about to plummet--and take the recovery with them.
By Benjamin Wallace-Wells
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/featur ... wells.html
-
Kalifornian
- Уже с Приветом
- Posts: 7838
- Joined: 16 Oct 2003 22:06
- Location: Kalifornia
Прогноз цен на четыре года http://www.economist.com/finance/displa ... id=2736477
The chart to the right shows by how much prices would need to fall to get back to their long-term average, assuming that the decline takes place over four years and that wages rise at a pace similar to that in the recent past. House prices would need to fall by 10% in America, by 15% in New Zealand and by 20-30% in the other five countries.
The chart to the right shows by how much prices would need to fall to get back to their long-term average, assuming that the decline takes place over four years and that wages rise at a pace similar to that in the recent past. House prices would need to fall by 10% in America, by 15% in New Zealand and by 20-30% in the other five countries.
-
OtecFedor
- Уже с Приветом
- Posts: 8361
- Joined: 17 Oct 2001 09:01
- Location: Уездный город N
ax3816 wrote:There Goes the Neighborhood
Why home prices are about to plummet--and take the recovery with them.
By Benjamin Wallace-Wells
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/featur ... wells.html
Однобокая статья, "во всем виновато начальство". Даже с учетом подрывной деятельности Фанни Мея, не все так просто. Равно с маразматиком Гринспеном вину следует разделить рядовым гражданам которые в 21 век хай-тек экономики пытаются втиснуть придурковатую suburbian модель поселения, которая родом из аграрного 19 века. Роковая любовь к 6 соткам не знает границ.
-
Oleg_B
- Уже с Приветом
- Posts: 5406
- Joined: 16 Apr 1999 09:01
- Location: MA
OtecFedor wrote:...вину следует разделить рядовым гражданам которые в 21 век хай-тек экономики пытаются втиснуть придурковатую suburbian модель поселения, которая родом из аграрного 19 века. Роковая любовь к 6 соткам не знает границ.
Вопрос на засыпку: когда началось массовое расселение по пригородам? И благодаря чему оно стало возможным? Так же: какое отношение американский пригород имеет к 6 соткам?
И если серьёзно: можно получить информацию о менее придурковатых моделях поселения?
-
KVA
- Уже с Приветом
- Posts: 5346
- Joined: 03 Feb 1999 10:01
- Location: NJ, USA
-
Oleg_B
- Уже с Приветом
- Posts: 5406
- Joined: 16 Apr 1999 09:01
- Location: MA
KVA wrote:Oleg_B wrote:И если серьёзно: можно получить информацию о менее придурковатых моделях поселения?
Посмотреть как люди по-другому живут? Welcome to NYC, Boston, SF и т.д. В чем проблема то?
Понял-понял-понял... Кроме как на помойке, жизни нет... А то, типа, от бара как добираться обратно? Подростковые комплексы, в общем.
Пригород - это и есть движение вперёд от муравейников, характерных скорее для слаборазвитых стран. Другое дело, что вложений требует немалых в инфраструктуру, и времени на развитие.
Насколько я догадываюсь, как раз это сейчас в Московской области происходит - развитие пригородов за счёт тех, у кого деньги есть, чтобы выехать из загаженного города... Правильное направление, на мой взгляд.
-
ax3816
- Уже с Приветом
- Posts: 1064
- Joined: 01 Jan 2004 23:53
Greenspan: Faster rate hikes possible
Central banker says measured increases could be accelerated if needed to fight inflation.
June 8, 2004: 12:22 PM EDT
http://money.cnn.com/2004/06/08/news/ec ... tm?cnn=yes
Greenspan: Fed ready to raise rates
Fed chief won't rule out aggressive action
The Associated Press
Updated: 11:48 a.m. ET June 08, 2004
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5164396/
Stocks struggle after Greenspan remarks
Fed chief: Aggressive rate hikes to curb inflation possible
The Associated Press
Updated: 12:08 p.m. ET June 08, 2004
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3683270/
Central banker says measured increases could be accelerated if needed to fight inflation.
June 8, 2004: 12:22 PM EDT
http://money.cnn.com/2004/06/08/news/ec ... tm?cnn=yes
Greenspan: Fed ready to raise rates
Fed chief won't rule out aggressive action
The Associated Press
Updated: 11:48 a.m. ET June 08, 2004
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5164396/
Stocks struggle after Greenspan remarks
Fed chief: Aggressive rate hikes to curb inflation possible
The Associated Press
Updated: 12:08 p.m. ET June 08, 2004
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3683270/
-
Слоняра
- Уже с Приветом
- Posts: 1193
- Joined: 29 Dec 2003 17:19
- Location: NY