Why Housing Is About to Go "Pop!"

[ax3816]

Workers to see only modest pay increases

Surveys find raises less than 4% this year
The Associated Press
Updated: 9:01 a.m. ET July 14, 2004

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5435715/

[Kalifornian]

Te коробки из под холодильника, в которых гугли жили до IPO, что с ними будет, когда гугли решат улучшить жилищьное положение? Почему вы считаете, что они бросятся спекулировать жильем?

А почему нет? Чтобы купить да сдать в рент много ума не нужно. Да и куда еще деньги девать, маркет опять вниз катится.

[SEL]

Te коробки из под холодильника, в которых гугли жили до IPO, что с ними будет, когда гугли решат улучшить жилищьное положение? Почему вы считаете, что они бросятся спекулировать жильем?

А почему нет? Чтобы купить да сдать в рент много ума не нужно. Да и куда еще деньги девать, маркет опять вниз катится.

У нас сейчас от табличек -for rent- and -for sale- просто пестрят дороги. И никак ум не появляется чтобы эти дома кто-то снял

[Kalifornian]

Your Life in a Bubble. If housing prices drop 15 percent, what would it mean to you?

http://www.sfgate.com/columnists/lloyd/

[Kalifornian]

У нас сейчас от табличек -for rent- and -for sale- просто пестрят дороги. И никак ум не появляется чтобы эти дома кто-то снял

По словам моего приятеля, который хочет поменять ребенку школу, цены на рент с весны поднялись на 200-300 баксов.

[SEL]

У нас сейчас от табличек -for rent- and -for sale- просто пестрят дороги. И никак ум не появляется чтобы эти дома кто-то снял

По словам моего приятеля, который хочет поменять ребенку школу, цены на рент с весны поднялись на 200-300 баксов.

Не знаю Мы сняли дом три года назад за 795, счас платим 850, а платить будем 900. Такие же дома свежекупленные народ хочет сдавать 1500+ Если 900 это по сравнению с апартментом очень даже хорошо, то 1500+ увольте

[Nwaylock]

По словам моего приятеля, который хочет поменять ребенку школу, цены на рент с весны поднялись на 200-300 баксов.

Сколько это в процентном отношении?

[Kalifornian]

Nwaylock, они искали/ищут не больше 1500 за 2 бедрумный таунхаус

[ax3816]

Housing construction fell in June

Another sign U.S. economy slowed last month

The Associated Press
Updated: 8:49 a.m. ET July 20, 2004

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5465549/

[Nwaylock]

Nwaylock, они искали/ищут не больше 1500 за 2 бедрумный таунхаус

Так я не поняла сколько они платят сейчас 1500 или 1200?

[Kalifornian]

Nwaylock, я не знаю сколько платят сейчас. Знаю, что они искали весной но чего то у них не срослось, и они начали сейчас снова поиски и говорят, что если весной можно было за 1500 найти чего-то, то теперь рент дороже. Это район cupertino school disctrict.

[Kalifornian]

Is the bloom off the boom?

The U.S. housing market, a pillar of economic strength that propped up the sagging U.S. economy last year, may be showing some cracks, experts said.

From Laguna Hills, California, to Lexington, Massachusetts, Realtors said home-buying dynamics have changed from just a few months ago.

It's no longer a seller's game, they said.

Power has shifted to buyers who are taking longer to make up their minds, looking at more homes and demanding price breaks.

"We're seeing houses staying on the market a lot longer if they're not priced below the so-called 'current market,"' said Nita Desai, a Realtor with Prudential California Realty.

The culprit is not a lack of buyers, but a surge in the number of homes for sale. Desai said the number of available homes between $550,000 and $750,000, the largest chunk of her market in Orange County, California, now is 964 -- up from 248 in March, according to Multiple Listing Service.

"We don't know if this is a 'bubble burst,"' she said. "It's hard to say because we still have job growth, and there are people out there. They're not throwing themselves at any home they see any more and overbidding. They're waiting to see what is happening to the market."

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtm ... ID=5724201

[ax3816]

антиподов продолжает колбасить


Housing market fall to continue
By FLEUR ANDERSON in Canberra
16jul04

http://www.theadvertiser.news.com.au/co ... 11,00.html

THE Reserve Bank believes house prices will continue to fall in the first half of the financial year despite reports of a second wind in the housing market.

Although the most recent official figures on house prices relate only to the first three months, the bank said in its quarterly bulletin released yesterday that house prices were likely to have continued falling in the three months to June.

"The data available to date for the June quarter suggest further weakness in that quarter," the bank said.

In particular, the national average house price would be driven by falls in Sydney and Melbourne.

"Median prices in April, May or June . . . suggest prices in all capitals were lower than they had been three months earlier," the report said.

The Reserve Bank quoted Commonwealth Bank statistics which show falls in all capital cities in the first three months of the year.

These figures included:

SYDNEY house prices down 2.9 per cent and apartments down 5.4 per cent

MELBOURNE house prices down 5 per cent and apartments down 10.2 per cent.

BRISBANE house prices down 2 per cent and apartments up 7.9 per cent.

ADELAIDE house prices down 1.8 per cent and apartments up 2 per cent.

PERTH house prices down 0.5 per cent and apartments down a hefty 23 per cent.

[Elka_CA]

Nwaylock, они искали/ищут не больше 1500 за 2 бедрумный таунхаус

это они в Пало Альто ищут?
потому как в Bay Area рядом с хорошими школами полно за такую цену

[Kalifornian]

Elka_CA, они ищут в cupertino school disctrict хотя честно говоря я не понимаю, чего еще им надо. То дом старый, то шум с улицы.

[Kalifornian]

Housing market set to slow

Rising rates will begin to hamper sales. Some homeowners are trying to sell at the top, but experts caution against trying to time the market.

HSBC economist Ian Morris says housing prices are at least 10% to 20% too high, and an expected series of interest-rate hikes and rising housing debt will cause prices to fall. And some potential home sellers worry they could be sunk.

"I'm seeing a lot more houses on the market, more than I've ever seen, and it's because they're afraid the bubble will burst," says Marjorie Bernstein of Weichert Realtors.

Bernstein isn't as worried as some sellers, but she's not taking any chances.

After last month's interest-rate hike, Bernstein decided to list her own northern New Jersey home -- a four-bedroom expanded ranch on a half acre. She's asking $1.2 million, 46% more than she paid for it just four years ago.

On the block
"I put my house on the market now, looking to the future that prices will come down a bit," she says.

Housing prices have soared in the double digits in many metropolitan areas in the past year and are up 6% to 8% on average.

But this time next year, buyers may not be willing to pay as much. The run-up in housing prices has outpaced household incomes and even the rent someone could earn on the same property, key indicators of a housing bubble, some economists say. They also argue that while the bubble may not burst suddenly, it will slowly start to deflate.

"Bubbles by definition are unsustainable, and we would suggest a period of rising interest rates tends to be the ultimate (issue) that punctures the bubble," Morris says. "So we suspect that the U.S. housing party stops by mid-2005."

Use caution
Still, sellers shouldn't try to time the market.

"But it may be time to start looking into what your home is worth, and what options are available to you in your area for selling that house if and when you decide the time is right," says Colby Sambrotto of forsalebyowner.com.

The downside of selling your home at the top of the market is the task of finding another one that you can afford to buy. Some sellers say it's tough, so they're renting.

Bernstein plans to do just that when she sells her house.

"I would wait until (prices) came down a bit, put some money in the bank and then buy accordingly," she says.

But Morris says it may actually make sense to stay in the house that you own, rather than sell it, if you can't afford to buy a new place. Otherwise you'll wind up paying rent and you won't get the tax advantages of owning a house

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/CNB ... P90071.asp

[ax3816]

House prices should stay strong

July 23, 2004

BY DAVID MYERS

http://www.freep.com/realestate/renews/ ... 040723.htm

The nation's housing market should remain strong for at least another year or two, even though the Federal Reserve has started to raise interest rates.


Q: A couple of years ago, you wrote an article that was headlined "No Housing Bubble." Now that the Federal Reserve has started raising interest rates again, would you like to rethink your opinion?


A: No, I don't want to rethink my opinion. But thanks for the offer, anyway.

When I wrote that column two years ago, many so-called experts were saying that housing prices would soon collapse. Some of them were literally making $100,000 a day -- $25,000 per speech, four speeches daily -- by telling audiences that housing prices were about to plunge because the economy was slow, the stock market was on rocky ground, etc.

Instead, the price of a typical American home has jumped by nearly 20 percent since then. Values have soared an even higher 30 percent or 40 percent in many parts of California, the Northeast and Florida.

All those people who paid to hear those experts speak two years ago should ask for their money back.

Neither buyers nor sellers should panic over the recent rise in mortgage rates. If you look at the statistics dating back to the end of the Depression, home prices and sales have almost never declined on a year-over-year basis when rates were below 8 percent.

Although the Federal Reserve raised short-term loan rates last month, most lenders are still offering 30-year mortgage loans at 6.5 percent or less.

It's doubtful rates will hit 8 percent again until at least 2005 or maybe 2006 -- which suggests that the housing market and price gains should remain strong for at least another year or two.

Q: If I create the type of money-saving living trust that you recently wrote about and then put my house into it, would I be prohibited from refinancing the property because title would be held by the trust instead of myself?

A: No. A trust is flexible, and you can do almost anything you want with the property that you put into it.

If you're like most Americans, the property you place inside a trust can be mortgaged, refinanced, sold or given away just as easily as if you didn't have a trust at all -- while also ensuring that your heirs will avoid the costly and time-consuming probate process after you die.

Q: When a home is sold, who is supposed to pay for the one-year homeowners warranty policy -- the buyer or the seller?

A: Warranty policies pay for certain types of repairs if something goes wrong after the buyer moves in. They usually cost between $300 and $500.

No state requires a policy to be purchased in order for a sale to close, so it's up to the buyer and seller to haggle over who's going to pay for it.

Some sellers agree to pay for the policy because it makes their home more marketable. But other times (especially in hot real estate markets), the buyer agrees to pay for it.

Warranties provide a lot of coverage for a relatively small price.

If I were buying a home now, I'd certainly ask the seller to pay for a home-warranty policy.

But if the seller refused, I'd pay for it myself instead of going without such cost-effective coverage.


Q: I bought a house in May, and got a good loan to finance the deal. But last week, I checked my credit report and found out that my credit score has dropped by almost 20 points!

How could this happen, considering that I paid my new mortgage promptly in May, June and July?


A: It's fairly common for a consumer's credit score to drop shortly after getting a mortgage, in part because creditors fear that the new loan will make it harder to pay other bills.

Don't worry about the decline. Your credit score will quickly float back up and then get even better, provided that you keep making all of your debt payments promptly.


Q: I recently sold my condo for $10,000 more than I paid for it, but then had to pay a $9,200 sales commission and about $4,000 in other closing costs. As a result, I actually wound up losing about $3,200.

Can I deduct the loss on my next tax return?


A: Unfortunately, no.

Congress has considered several measures through the years that would permit such deductions, but none of them has ever been approved.

Ironically, many of the same Democratic and Republican lawmakers who won't allow unfortunate homeowners to deduct their home-sale losses have approved even costlier measures that permit multibillion-dollar corporations to sell their company headquarters at a loss and take superinflated write-offs.

Go figure!

DAVID MYERS is a nationally syndicated real estate columnist. Write to him at P.O. Box 2960, Culver City, Calif. 90231-2960.

[ax3816]

Вам это не напоминает времена, когда начали увольнять IT персонал?


Waterfield job-cut plans signal housing boom over

By Sherry Slater
The Journal Gazette

Posted on Sat, Jul. 17, 2004

http://www.fortwayne.com/mld/journalgaz ... 179094.htm

Times have been tough in northeast Indiana. But even though the past few years have been marked by plant closings and offshoring, one industry has flourished: housing.

Historically low interest rates have enticed renters to become buyers and borrowers to refinance their mortgages. Sales of both previously owned homes and new ones reached record highs in 2003, according to the National Association of Realtors.

The result has prompted some lenders and loan processors to beef up their operations. After all, someone had to handle all that paperwork.

But the one bright light in an otherwise dismal economy has begun to flicker. And some companies are suffering more than others.

Waterfield Mortgage Co. said Thursday it will cut at least 300 jobs across the company before the end of the year. “Virtually all” of those positions will come from the 1,300-employee operation in Fort Wayne, Donald Sherman, chairman and chief executive of Waterfield Mortgage, said Friday.

The Fort Wayne-based mortgage company said fewer new mortgage loans and the loss of a contract for loan processing services forced the decision.

Although the workers losing their jobs haven’t been identified yet, the cuts will primarily come from the departments working with general loan originations, supporting origination activities and processing private label contracts.

Waterfield Mortgage, the largest privately held mortgage company in the United States, is the parent company of Waterfield Group. Waterfield Group employs more than 2,600 nationwide in 40 offices. The company closed more than $11 billion in loans in 2003, nearly doubling the previous average of $6 billion in annual loan closings.

Waterfield Mortgage reported in February 2003 that it recorded more than $3 billion in loan closings during the fourth quarter of 2002 alone.

The homebuying and refinancing frenzy has waned on a national scale, however. And, locally, fewer homes are being built in the city. Home construction permits were down 7 percent in June compared with the same month a year ago, the Home Builders Association of Fort Wayne reported Monday.

Maurine Holle, the association’s executive director, said that 186 new-home construction permits were issued last month, compared with 200 during June 2003.

David Findlay, executive vice president and chief financial officer of Lakeland Financial Corp., said a slowdown in mortgage activity affects some companies more than others.

The Warsaw-based parent company of Lake City Bank reported an 11 percent earnings drop Thursday, partly due to falling mortgage loan numbers. But the bank won’t need to look at job cuts .

“It’s not a core product for us, so we didn’t staff up for it,” he said.

At the height of the boom, the bank reassigned staff from other areas and used technology upgrades to process more loans than officials believed possible, Findlay said.

Rodney Sinn, Freedom Financial Mortgage Corp. co-owner and founder, said his Fort Wayne-based mortgage brokerage also kept a conservative staffing stance.

He added just two more loan officers for a total of 12 in Fort Wayne, three in Georgia and two in Florida.

“It was a very busy time last year, … but we knew this wasn’t going to last forever,” Sinn said.

The number of loan closings for the firm is down about 23 percent year-to-date, compared with 2003, he said. But although the number is down, this year’s closings are still about 36 percent above 2002.

“Last year was just … I don’t know that we’ll ever see a year like that again,” said Sinn, a 17-year industry veteran.

Sinn and Findlay both said they’re not surprised that Waterfield Mortgage has to cut its employee count.

“They are just a massive company,” Sinn said, adding that the sheer size of the company makes it difficult to make conservative staffing decisions. “But, obviously, they’re doing something right because they’re very successful.”

Findlay noted that Lake City – and many other lenders – makes a variety of business, car and other loans. They aren’t as dependent on the mortgage market volume as specialty companies such as Waterfield Mortgage.

Sherman, of Waterfield Mortgage, said his company can report some good news. Although the company is suffering because new mortgage loan applications have fallen, it benefits when refinancings also drop.

Waterfield Mortgage gets part of its revenue from servicing loans purchased from other lenders. When the turnover rate is high, the company doesn’t make as much as when it holds a loan for a longer term, Sherman said.
Housing by the numbers

•The year-to-date home construction permit rate in Allen County fell from 942 in the first six months of last year to 882 permits this year.

•Existing -home sales in Allen County increased for the first half of 2004, from 2,434 in the first six months of last year to 2,568, as reported by the Fort Wayne Area Association of Realtors, a group that has added new members during the period, which accounts for some of the increase.

•The Washington-based Mortgage Bankers Association on Wednesday said the number of mortgage loan applications for the week ending July 9 had fallen 61 percent compared with the same week of 2003.

[ax3816]

North County's great housing boom
By: DAN McSWAIN - Staff Writer
Last modified Saturday, July 10, 2004 10:43 PM PDT

http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2004/07 ... _10_04.txt

[Rem700]

ax3816, вам надо было давным давно тему разбить на две. В одну давать ссылки о том, Why Housing Is About to Go "Pop!", а в другую сслыки о том, почему этого не случится.

[Kalifornian]

Можно просто загибать пальцы на каждую статью. Типа сегодня счет 8:4 в пользу лопания.

А мой коллега сказал, что вчера он купил еше один дом. Теперь у него их три. В одном живет, другой сдаёт (куплен в 1997 так, что дом платит сам за себя). Вот теперь третий будет сдавать. Причина покупки - появился дополнительный доход.

[ax3816]

Washington Mutual slashing 2,500 jobs
Firm cutting back in attempt to improve mortgage business
The Associated Press
Updated: 4:20 p.m. ET July 22, 2004

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5489663/

SEATTLE - Washington Mutual said Thursday it will cut 2,500 jobs and close operations across the country as it tries to improve its struggling mortgage business.

The Seattle-based banking company said it plans to eliminate about 1,840 jobs as it closes approximately 100 retail lending and loan processing offices. The rest of the jobs will be eliminated when the company closes a mortgage loan processing facility in San Antonio, Texas.

[Mic]

Washington Mutual slashing 2,500 jobs

Ага, и no one in Seattle
По NPR слышал.

[ax3816]

Existing home sales hit record
Median housing price also reaches all-time high
Reutors
Updated: 10:40 a.m. ET July 26, 2004

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/5516962/

[Kalifornian]

Вот и в Москве цены упали. Кто следующий на очереди?

Перегрев рынка, проблемы в банковском секторе, "низкий сезон" и другие факторы спровоцировали первое за несколько лет заметное снижение цен на столичном рынке жилья. По данным федеральных чиновников, с начала лета квартиры в Москве подешевели на 10-15%. Риелторы называют эти оценки завышенными и уверяют, что чиновники заговорили о падении цен в момент, когда кризис уже преодолен

http://www.newsru.com/finance/27jul2004/flats.html