Бостонский пузырь

[lxf]

Интересно лопнет он или рассосется ?

By Kimberly Blanton, Globe Staff | June 24, 2005

Sales of single-family homes fell sharply in May across Massachusetts, a second consecutive monthly drop that may portend price declines, particularly in suburban Boston.

The Massachusetts Association of Realtors yesterday reported an 11.1 percent decline in May sales of single family-homes from a year earlier, following a 10.4 percent decline in April. It was the lowest number of sales in May since 2001, according to the association.
The median house price, however, continued to rise last month: to $359,900, or 6.2 percent higher than the median of $339,00 in May 2004.

Still, some realtors and analysts predicted softening sales may point to the end of a record-breaking Massachusetts market, which could lead to flat or falling house prices.

Massachusetts shows signs of slowing as sales nationwide of existing homes and condos are still near a record pace. The National Association of Realtors said yesterday that May sales of US residences occurred at an annual rate of 7.13 million, down only slightly from April's 7.18 million sales pace, which had been an all-time high.

While some Boston-area real estate agents blamed a cool and rainy spring for the slowdown, economists said demographic shifts are at work as baby boomers sell high-priced suburban homes to lock in profits at what they perceive as peak prices. Many are putting their houses on the market, driving inventories to record levels, so they can move to warmer climates or smaller condominiums in downtown Boston or in their own communities. First-time homebuyers who can no longer afford the Boston area's sky-high house prices also are choosing condos.

''The condo market is red, red hot, and it's sapping a little bit of strength out of the single-family market," said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Economy.com in West Chester, Pa., who follows the state's real estate markets.

In May, 2,141 condominiums were sold, a 17.4 percent increase from a year earlier. Median condo prices increased 4.7 percent statewide, to a record $279,900, as developers continue to build condos to meet strong demand.

May was the first time in 13 months that condo price gains were below 10 percent.

Maggie Tomkiewicz, president of the Massachusetts Association of Realtors, blamed a snowy winter and cool spring for lower housing sales. May sales data reflect final closings on transactions that were initiated weeks earlier.

''Think back to late February, early March, and April's weather -- it was horrible," Tomkiewicz said. ''We've all experienced what we're calling a delayed spring market. I think it's a delay, not a slowdown."

In what some see as another sign of a slowdown, the number of unsold, single-family houses on the market in Greater Boston reached the highest level since 1997, when MLS Property Information Network Inc., a primary source of housing data in metropolitan Boston and statewide, began tracking the data. Yesterday, 4,686 homes were listed for sale, a 25 percent increase over the same day in 2004, the firm said.

Conrad Allen, the firm's chairman, acknowledged prices could fall. But he dismissed all talk of a ''bubble" in the Boston-area real estate market that could pop, driving prices down dramatically. ''Prices may drop," he said in a recent press release, ''but not much."

Judy Moses, an agent in Newton, Brookline, and Waltham for Pathway Home Realty Group, has noticed a pickup in calls recently from potential sellers. But demand from buyers ''is slowing down a little," she said, citing high prices. ''There's a limit to what people can afford."

Maribeth Boisvert, an agent for Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in the western suburb of Shrewsbury, said, ''I definitely, definitely think that it's turned from a seller's market to more of a buyer's market, because the inventory's up." The housing market in her area is ''not going as quickly" this spring, she said.

Some of Boisvert's clients are putting houses up for sale to relocate to other parts of the country. One client is moving to Colorado, she said. Other clients wanted to trade up to a bigger house in the Boston area, but the couple realized they could pay $550,000 for a house in Arizona that would cost $750,000 locally. They also are relocating their business, to accommodate moving out of state.

''Perhaps people are saying they expect rates to go up and this may be the last chance they have to cash in," she said. So, ''they say, 'Let's get our house on the market.' "

Real estate specialists disagreed on the meaning of slowing house sales. But most said that if mortgage interest rates rise, prices would fall. Now at historic lows, mortgage rates have held below 6 percent since early April. The US rate for 30-year fixed mortgages reported yesterday by Freddie Mac, the national organization that purchases residential mortgages, was 5.57 percent.

''We've got a flashing yellow light," Bill Wendel, owner of the Real Estate Cafe in Cambridge, said about April and May sales.

''Supply is going up, demand is going down, and we're still at record-low interest rates. When these rates go up," he said, ''sellers are going to have trouble."

[BOBAH]

FORECLOSURE FILINGS JUMP IN MASS. AS HOME VALUES SOAR
( Boston Globe Archives, 2005-06-18 )

The combination of high housing prices, low interest rates, a sluggish job market, and new mortgage products that allow borrowers to stretch their finances to pay for their homes has contributed to a nearly 28 percent surge this year in foreclosure filings across Massachusetts.

Вся статья доступна только за деньги
Я в газете читал и там было сказано, что да рост имеет место быть но все равно число foreclosure составляет маленький процент от общего числа моргиджей. Я правда не уверен речь шла о сравнении количества кредитов или сумм этих кредитов.

PS Чтоб он лопнул, чтоб он лопнул, чтоб он лопнул, чтоб он лопнул....

[lxf]

Я в газете читал и там было сказано, что да рост имеет место быть но все равно число foreclosure составляет маленький процент от общего числа моргиджей.

Первые ласточки стали появляться в MLS рассылке. До этого конфискованных домов там не наблюдал.

[BOBAH]

Первые ласточки стали появляться в MLS рассылке. До этого конфискованных домов там не наблюдал.

А подскажите пожалуйста как на эту рассылку подписываться?

[lxf]

А подскажите пожалуйста как на эту рассылку подписываться?

Можно через своего агента, а можно "дикарем" http://www.ziprealty.com/index.jsp. Правда здесь надо регистрироваться и агент сам вас найдет и вскорости начнет приставать.