Moderator: Komissar
Слоняра wrote:Я извеняусь, а что -перефинансирование денег не стоит?
Выкинуть 10-20K за перефенансирование (да ешо - "несколько раз в год") - меня , например - "жаба душит"
M.Wazowski wrote:Митяй wrote:Kalifornian wrote:...
Откладывать каждый месяц по $350, которые он выиграл благодаря АРМ, и инвестировать их. По грубым прикидкам, это выйдет 25-26К. Думаете, не покроет ?
А, извиняюсь, какова вероятность, что дом за пять лет упадет в цене ?
Митяй, невнимательно читаешь .
ренегад сказал, что если бы он не взял АРМ, то не имел бы возможности взять mortgage вообще.
Так что откладывать $350 не получится в данном случае.
. Т.е. через 5 лет с учетом роста з/п и плохого рейта я более менее буду сводить концы с концами в 0. Но надеюсь на второй доход в семье и нормальную жизнь - вот почему я выбрал 5/1 а ен 30 фиксед. Но повторюсь: были бы деньга на 30 - брал бы его, так как такое бывает на так уж и часто.
Oleg_B wrote:шпиён wrote:Если они есть. А не заплачены за overpriced дом.
Overpriced - это если в это же самое время можно было купить такой же, в том же районе, но дешевле. Сравнение со вчерашним или завтрашним днём - некорректно.
Ne znayu, chto Vy napisaliСлоняра wrote:... del ...
Перечитал, и подумал - а кому ето надо??? Раз человек так в ето верует - то любые слова не "приятеля -профессионала" бесполезны....
, no ne nado tak rasstraivat'sya. Ya tak ponyala, u Vas est' chto perefinansirovat'. I esli na dannyj moment Vash procent vyshe 5.5 . Ved' esche v marte mozhno bylo poluchit' fix na 30 let nizhe, chem seichas ARM 5/1. Potom, special'no dlya Vas vchera posmotrela. Na vcherashnij den' luchshij fix na 30 byl 5,75, a nedelyu nazad 6,2. Poluchaetsya nuzhen broker, kotoryj smozhet v nuzhnyj moment s nuzhnym procentom...
Oleg_B wrote:Разница видна, или ещё фонт увеличить?
там же дальше сегодня 20-30.
, а вот когда и мерседесы и попугаи и (что самое главно) рент "в домах" сильно подешевели это признак задранной цены.. и даже можно догадатся какими рычагами.. Номинирую на 1-й домкрат процентную ставку
Housing market is just a bubble waiting to pop
By DEAN BAKER
SURVIVORS of the recent stock market crash should rightly be worried that a sharp drop in housing prices could deliver a second major blow to their retirement dreams.
The fact that there has been an unprecedented run-up in home prices over the last eight years creates the possibility for an unprecedented decline in the years ahead — just as the spurt in the NASDAQ at the end of the '90s created the basis for its plunge after March 2000.
The basic facts are striking. According to the government's House Price Index, the increase in the sale price of an average house has exceeded the overall rate of inflation by more than 40 percentage points over the last eight years. In the past, house prices had largely kept pace with the overall rate of inflation.
It's important to recognize what this index shows — the HPI tracks the change in price for the same home. This means that the rise in this index is not being driven by better quality homes, it is being driven by homes of the same quality costing more.
This run-up in home prices is not being matched by a comparable increase in rental prices, providing further evidence of a housing bubble. If there were some underlying factor driving up the demand for housing, then it should lead to comparable increases in home sale prices and rental prices, as it always did in the past. Instead, people are willing to pay more for owning a home, but not in general willing to pay more for rent, at least relative to rate of inflation.
This suggests a bubble waiting to pop.
...
Likenew wrote:Слоняра wrote:... del ...
Перечитал, и подумал - а кому ето надо??? Раз человек так в ето верует - то любые слова не "приятеля -профессионала" бесполезны....
Ne znayu, chto Vy napisali
WASHINGTON - A three-year home-buying frenzy has set the soaring U.S. housing market up for a likely fall.
Driven by the lowest mortgage rates since John F. Kennedy was president, people are buying more homes in a sluggish economy than they did during the late-1990s boom. Prices have risen faster over the last four years than at any time in the previous decade.
The housing boom has been a windfall for many: homebuilders, remodelers, real estate agents, furniture and paint store owners and homeowners. In many markets, the stunning increase in home values has been the only good financial news for owners faced with slumping stocks and slow wage growth.
Yet the good times may end soon, painfully for some. Economists worry that a housing bubble may have developed, similar to the steep climb in stock prices in the late 1990s.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned again this week that interest rates can't remain so low forever. Many economists think they might start to rise late this year and next year. When they do, it will be the equivalent of sucking oxygen from a raging fire. Home sales will slow. Price increases will tail off and could reverse in some markets.
Jan Hatzius, an economist at Goldman Sachs investment bank in New York, thinks the national average home price could fall for the first time in the history of the House Price Index, which is published by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, an agency responsible for mortgage market oversight, and dates to 1975.
The fall, should it happen, would be a reverse of the housing boom of the last few years - a boom fueled by the simple mathematics of mortgage interest rates.
Either the United States is inside a colossal housing bubble that's about to pop, or there's little to worry about. It depends on whom you ask.
The debate over the existence of a housing bubble has been going on for at least two years. A "bubble" happens when frenzied buyers bid up prices artificially high. Eventually, the bubble bursts and prices plummet. Believers in a real estate bubble worry that years of low interest rates have inflated home prices beyond reason. They warn that the inevitable rise in mortgage rates could cause a coast-to-coast plunge in values that would have hideous effects on the economy.
...
Many buyers nowadays borrow 90 percent or more of a home's price just so they can buy a place before even the least-expensive houses in their areas are out of reach. They figure they can move up to a better house in a few years. Some of these buyers get adjustable-rate or interest-only mortgages. They stretch their finances to protect themselves from further increases in home prices, but that makes them vulnerable to dramatic drops in values.
By most accounts, fewer buyers are doing the opposite: protecting themselves from a bubble. The best bubble-protection strategies consist of saving up for a hefty down payment (of 20 percent or more), avoiding bidding wars for houses in hot markets, shunning interest-only loans and buying houses for the long term.
People who warn of a housing bubble say that home prices have risen dramatically in the past eight years, faster than the overall rate of inflation, while rents have not kept pace. They acknowledge that real estate markets are local, and that all real estate bubbles in the past were local. But they say the past few years' rapid run-up in home prices has been national and unprecedented, so a nationwide drop in values is possible.
...
Experts disagree on bubble's existence
The winning essayist, Hilary Croke, is a researcher for the Federal Reserve. Expressing her personal views and not those of the Fed, she argues in the essay that the steep rise in prices in recent years is nothing new, that demand for housing is high and supply is low and that houses are bigger and better than they used to be. All of these factors push up prices.
She adds that home prices have risen much faster than rents because the "benefits of homeownership together with easier access to credit has made rental accommodation less attractive."
WASHINGTON — With mortgage rates rising, the superheated housing market — which set another record in March — should finally cool down. After it soars even higher, that is.
Economists and industry experts are preparing for a shakeout in the housing sector, which has outperformed the overall economy for several years. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise short-term interest rates as early as this summer to keep inflation in check. Mortgage rates have moved up since early April in anticipation of Fed action.
In the short run, home sales and construction could rise even faster as consumers rush to buy. The Commerce Department said Monday that new home sales hit a record in March, jumping 8.9% from the previous month and 21.8% from a year ago. (Those numbers don't reflect the recent rise in mortgage rates.)
Over the longer term, prices and sales should rise more slowly. They could fall in some areas on the East and West coasts if rates rise faster than expected or the economy falters.
Most economists and experts dispute the notion that a national home price "bubble" is about to burst, pointing to wide regional price and supply variations. Still, even optimists see turbulence ahead.
Renegade wrote:З/п растет в среднем 150-200 баксов в месяц за один год, хотя не так шустро как было в 1999 году
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Jobs in the service industry are moving overseas to India, China and other countries at a much faster pace than had initially been expected, a study said Monday.
The report, released by the Cambridge, Mass.-based technology research firm, said it also projects 3.4 million jobs will move overseas in the next 11 years, slightly higher than the 3.3 million projection it had two years ago.
Customer and competitive pressures have caused services and technology companies such as IBM and Accenture Ltd. to expand operations in India, China and the Philippines, according to Forrester.
The two companies alone will add close to 9,000 jobs in India by the end of 2005, the study said.
"Пора заслушать начальника транспортного цеха" (с)
Komissar wrote:А просто живущим в праймари резиденс, согласен, цена дома пофигу, вот только если не придется вынужденно рефинансировать и/или продавать. Ну и психологически тяжело быть upside down on your mortgage.
Sullen wrote:Читаю, читаю и никак понять не могу, что все пытаются друг другу доказать.
У меня 2 вопроса.
1. Если цена на дома продолжит расти
Чем мне как владельцу дома, в нем живущему, это выгодно?
Или чем не выгодно?
2. Цена падает
Чем это выгодно и чем не выгодно?
Могу привести примеры из жизни спекулянтов, в которых колебания цен в обоих направлениях очень выгодны.
Разница между спекулянтом и просто владельцем дома, в котором он живет, очень большая. Для владельца колебания цен никакого значения не имеют, для спекулянта колебания просто необходимы.
Komissar wrote:Вот мы, спекулянты, и стараемся понять, куда ветер дует
Ваше мнение?
То, что я написал является только лично моим мнением и конечно же может быть ошибочным. Все описанное относится к Bay Area .
