Ура, мы ломим, гнутся шведы...

[A. Fig Lee]

Седни канадский доллар хитнул 80 центов US.

[quantum]

А хорошо ли это? Я сам не экономист, но говорят от этого конкурентоспособность падает.

[A. Fig Lee]

А хорошо ли это? Я сам не экономист, но говорят от этого конкурентоспособность падает.

ага, говорят. Года 2 уже, наверное. А она все не падает..
Економика щас прет на всю каташку - согласно канадским уженым - "near capacity", порядка 45% предприятий уперлись в предел не могут увеличить производство. В том числе и изза нехватки работников (нет, ето не в Торонто, и не программисты).
Почти на пике очередного економического бума..

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCo ... 230_newsml

[Pokemonsha]

OTTAWA, June 30, 2004 –Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Canada's economy will be solid in each of the next two years, but will fail to keep up with the soaring U.S. economy, according to The Conference Board of Canada's Canadian Outlook-Summer 2004.

"The Canadian outlook is bright, but it immediately loses lustre with one over-the-fence glance at the U.S. economy," said Peter Hall, Director of Economic Forecasting. "Canada's weaker showing marks a departure from recent experience, as Canadian economic growth met or surpassed U.S. performance in seven of the past ten years."

The U.S. economy is expected to expand by 4.4 per cent this year and by 3.6 per cent in 2005. While Canada's GDP growth of three per cent in 2004 and 3.2 per cent in 2005 will exceed the economy's long-term potential, several factors will restrain growth over the near term.

After surpassing $0.78 US earlier this year, the Canadian dollar has fallen back under the $0.75 US level. Nonetheless, the dollar remains 15 per cent higher than it was in 2002, weakening the outlook for exports. The dollar is forecast to average $0.737 US in 2004 and $0.72 US in 2005.

Rising interest rates will also dampen economic growth. An increase in short-term interest rates of 185 basis points next year will affect interest-sensitive areas of the economy, notably residential construction. The market will soften later this year and reduce residential investment by 7.8 per cent in 2005.

Finally, spending constraints in the public sector will hamper economic performance. Provincial governments, in particular, are striving to restore balance to their budgets by restricting near-term spending. As a result, growth in public sector expenditures is expected to lag well behind overall economic growth.

The Canadian Outlook, which is published quarterly, presents a short-term forecast for the national economy.

[A. Fig Lee]

Покемонша, если Вы понаблюдаете за прогнозами канадцев о своей економике и американцев о своей некоторое время, то можно увидеть, что канадские прогнозы в основном пессимистичные и как правило, слышишь одно - ну все, щас начнет загибатся. Результаты - процентов 80 - противоположные - лучше чем ожидалось. В ЮС же постоянно кричат как будет хорошо и постоянно имеют хуже чем ожидалось.

Canadian economy leads G7 in Q2: Statscan
By Leo Valiquette, Ottawa Business Journal Staff
Fri, Sep 24, 2004 8:00 AM EST

Canada the "only G7 nation to top one per cent, as growth in the United States, Japan and Europe all slowed".

Canada's current account surplus, the broadest measure it the country's dealings with the rest of the world, "soared to more than $10 billion, the second highest level on record. Export volumes drove the increase, fuelled by the strong global economy. Exports to China alone are up 75 per cent from last year", Statscan said.

Выделенное - к вопросу о негативном импакте курса доллара.

Откуда взялось 73-75 центов на следунущий год я не знаю. Еще до етого хайка прогнозировали 80 центов к концу года.

National Bank chief economist Clement Gignac, who has called for the dollar to reach 85 cents US by next summer

The Bank of Canada will raise its benchmark lending rate to 4 per cent next year and the Canadian dollar will climb to 83 cents (U.S.) by 2006, according to a new forecast by Toronto-Dominion Bank.

[RandomNumber]

Очевидна высокая корреляция саn/$ и цены на нефть в $us . 85% с начала 2004 года . Что вполне объяснимо , учитывая тот факт, что Великая и Могучая является номер 1 импортером черного золота в Amerika. Так, чта, как только нефть начнет падать - канадский доллар образумится.

[Pokemonsha]

Покемонша, если Вы понаблюдаете за прогнозами канадцев о своей економике и американцев о своей некоторое время, то можно увидеть, что канадские прогнозы в основном пессимистичные и как правило, слышишь одно - ну все, щас начнет загибатся. Результаты - процентов 80 - противоположные - лучше чем ожидалось. В ЮС же постоянно кричат как будет хорошо и постоянно имеют хуже чем ожидалось.

Canadian economy leads G7 in Q2: Statscan
By Leo Valiquette, Ottawa Business Journal Staff
Fri, Sep 24, 2004 8:00 AM EST

Canada the "only G7 nation to top one per cent, as growth in the United States, Japan and Europe all slowed".

Canada's current account surplus, the broadest measure it the country's dealings with the rest of the world, "soared to more than $10 billion, the second highest level on record. Export volumes drove the increase, fuelled by the strong global economy. Exports to China alone are up 75 per cent from last year", Statscan said.

Выделенное - к вопросу о негативном импакте курса доллара.

Откуда взялось 73-75 центов на следунущий год я не знаю. Еще до етого хайка прогнозировали 80 центов к концу года.

National Bank chief economist Clement Gignac, who has called for the dollar to reach 85 cents US by next summer

The Bank of Canada will raise its benchmark lending rate to 4 per cent next year and the Canadian dollar will climb to 83 cents (U.S.) by 2006, according to a new forecast by Toronto-Dominion Bank.

ДА... Что такое канада и что такое США? Посравнивайте на досуге. Смотрите только чтобы больно не было...

[Pokemonsha]

Oct. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Movements in the Canadian dollar, which reached an 11-year high today, are clouding the country's outlook for economic growth, Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Sheryl Kennedy said in a speech.

Kennedy, in a French-language speech to a Quebec audience, said the central bank views the exchange rate as a ``source of uncertainty'' when forecasting economic growth. Another central bank deputy governor, Paul Jenkins, didn't mention the dollar as a risk when he spoke Sept. 30.

``If the increase in the dollar lowers growth and economic activity, this suggests that monetary policy must be more accommodating,'' Kennedy said.

Kennedy's remarks suggest that further rises in the dollar may prompt the central bank to consider postponing interest-rate increases. Kennedy said today the central bank still plans to raise interest rates, though the pace would depend on how the risks to the economy play out.

``The rise in the dollar is having an impact on monetary conditions, which are much tighter now even though the benchmark rate has risen only a little,'' said Mouvement Desjardins economist Benoit Durocher. ``We're not saying it should stop raising rates, but rather that it could take its time to do it. A pause in December and early 2005 would be welcome.''

Fifteen of 17 economists polled by Bloomberg News expect the Bank of Canada to raise its benchmark lending rate a quarter point at its next scheduled chance on Oct. 19. The next rate decision after that will be on Dec. 7.

Kennedy said that the Bank of Canada ``must reduce the degree of monetary stimulus to prevent an intensification of inflation pressures and to encourage a sustained and durable economic expansion.''

Highlighted

Though Bank of Canada officials had recently mentioned currency fluctuations as something to watch -- for example in an Aug. 23 speech by Deputy Governor David Longworth -- policy makers hadn't highlighted the dollar in the recap of the country's economic outlook that usually concludes each speech.

In the last four statements or speeches, including one last week, the central bank said that the ``uncertainty'' around the economic outlook related ``primarily'' to three factors: the trade balance, oil and non-energy commodity prices and the estimated size of the output gap. Kennedy added a fourth factor, the exchange rate.

Kennedy's statements knocked the dollar back from gains earlier in the day. The currency rose as high as 79.77 U.S. cents before her comments, then slid to 79.31 U.S. cents at 4:49 p.m. Toronto time.

Rise `Appropriate'

The central bank doesn't need to change its plans for interest rates because of the gain in the dollar, said Ted Carmichael, senior economist in Toronto for J.P. Morgan Securities. The central bank was right to reduce interest rates when a rise in the dollar wasn't backed up by demand for Canadian goods and instead was a product of a desire to sell U.S. dollars, he said.

This time, the dollar's rise is ``much more appropriate and not in need of an adjustment in the path of interest rates,'' Carmichael said.

Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge said in a separate appearance that ``it's not at all surprising'' that the currency has rebounded to where it was in early 1993 now that commodity prices are rising and governments are balancing their budgets. Dodge spoke in Niagara-on-the-Lake, Ontario.

Oil and Ontario

In his speech, Dodge said oil prices, which reached $53 a barrel today, may be a drag on the world's economic growth, though the effects will be manageable.

Dodge's speech to the Ontario Economic Summit in Niagara-on- the-Lake focused on the prospects for Ontario, Canada's most- populous province.

The province will face challenges in the near future that include stiffer competition from Asian countries, higher energy prices and the consolidation of foreign financial companies that will create stronger competitors for banks based in Toronto, Dodge said. Ontario can overcome these hurdles, he said.



To contact the reporter on this story:
Alexandre Deslongchamps in Ottawa at adeslongcham@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Erik Schatzker at eschatzker@bloomberg.net.

[blanko27]

Ёжикам понятно, что хуже нет, когда USD падает: столько бизнесов завязано на US доллар. Платить-то работникам приходится свои, дорогие, а продавать за US, дешевые. Радоваться можно только биржевым спекулянтам...

[A. Fig Lee]

Так. Мои аргумрнты никто не читaет?
Ну и че - я должен продолжать говорить со стенкой?
Я ж на все ето уже ответил!?

[A. Fig Lee]

ДА... Что такое канада и что такое США? Посравнивайте на досуге. Смотрите только чтобы больно не было...

Знаем, знаем , USA - looser, Canada - winner.
What's your point?
Пальцы на ширине плеч?

[Boriskin]

ДА... Что такое канада и что такое США? Посравнивайте на досуге. Смотрите только чтобы больно не было...

Ну типа Канада вторая по размерам страна в мире, кто первая - напоминать надеюсь не надо, а Штаты - так, мелочь пузатая

А если серьезно, то у Канады достаточно велика сырьевая компонента в экономике, и поскольку причин для удешелвения ресурсов не наблюдается, то и перспективы соответствующие.

[Pokemonsha]

ДА... Что такое канада и что такое США? Посравнивайте на досуге. Смотрите только чтобы больно не было...

Знаем, знаем , USA - looser, Canada - winner.
What's your point?
Пальцы на ширине плеч?

Пальцы на ширине плечь не здесь а в России, вы не множко перепутали. Кстате, а Шведы дествительно гнуться, вернее согнулись уже, что ждет и канаду со свое социалькой... Рада что за страну свою вторую так болеете, смотрите на цифры и на прогнозы экспертов..

[Pokemonsha]

ДА... Что такое канада и что такое США? Посравнивайте на досуге. Смотрите только чтобы больно не было...

Ну типа Канада вторая по размерам страна в мире, кто первая - напоминать надеюсь не надо, а Штаты - так, мелочь пузатая


А если серьезно, то у Канады достаточно велика сырьевая компонента в экономике, и поскольку причин для удешелвения ресурсов не наблюдается, то и перспективы соответствующие.

Самая большая то она да та о которой вы напомнили, а толку от её величины, жителям той страны никакого. Не в размерах дело, а в умных людях которые создают экономику, технологии, правовые основы, и человеческие условия, жителям этой страны. Поэтому и вы и я там уже не живем..

Ресурсы ресурсами, а цены самое главное.. Все это пузырь, который скоро лопнет..

More Canadian Companies Expect Slowing Sales, Survey Shows
Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) -- More Canadian companies say their sales will slow in the next year because of high oil prices and cooling U.S. growth, a quarterly Bank of Canada survey found.

Twenty-six of the 100 executives the central bank polled expected slower future sales, up from 21 in a July survey. The Canadian dollar's record 21 percent rise last year hurt 46 of the companies polled, while 24 said it helped by lowering investment and input costs.

``Businesses in Central and Eastern Canada expressed more concern about the negative implications of high oil prices and slower growth in the U.S. economy,'' the central bank said in its report from Ottawa.

The country's biggest export customer is the U.S., and shipments there make up about a third of Canada's C$1.1 trillion ($880 billion) economy, so a rising dollar tempers growth. Higher oil prices have the biggest impact in provinces such as Ontario and Quebec that use more energy in manufacturing, while the western provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan benefit because they export crude oil, which has risen to record high prices this year.

Forty-seven companies said they expect increased sales, compared with 46 in July. The central bank polled companies between Aug. 23 and Sept. 14.

Inflation

Bank of Canada policy makers have said in recent speeches they may raise interest rates to slow inflation, and speculation they will act at an Oct. 19 policy announcement helped drive the Canadian dollar to 80 U.S. cents today for the first time in 11 years.

Deputy Governor Sheryl Kennedy said in a speech yesterday that the timing of rate increases depends on the currency, the country's trade balance, commodity prices and how close the economy is to full output.

The central bank lifted its overnight lending rate target a quarter point to 2.25 percent last month, and said the economy is close to the point where more production will create faster price gains. The central bank sets borrowing costs to keep inflation at a 2 percent pace, and slower than 3 percent whenever possible.

Nine companies said consumer prices will rise faster than a 3 percent annual rate in the next two years, down from 17 in the prior poll.

[Pokemonsha]

Так. Мои аргумрнты никто не читaет?
Ну и че - я должен продолжать говорить со стенкой?
Я ж на все ето уже ответил!?

The value of our dollar relative to other currencies, especially the U.S. dollar (because of our large trading relationship with Americans), has an impact on many of our activities. For example, if our dollar is low compared to the U.S. dollar, American imports and U.S. travel will cost more. On the positive side, our low dollar will make our exports more attractive to U.S. buyers and make a Canadian vacation seem like a bargain to American tourists. But if our dollar is high relative to other currencies like the Mexican peso, Mexican imports and travel in Mexico may be a bargain for Canadian consumers.

If our dollar decreases in value, imported products become more expensive, hurting consumers (who buy goods made outside of Canada) as well as importers. A U.S. vacation costs you more, because it takes more Canadian dollars to purchase U.S. dollars. Local manufacturers will be better able to compete with costly foreign imports, as their prices will seem cheaper by comparison. Our border cities may also benefit by attracting American shoppers whose dollars will go much further than at home.

If our dollar increases in value, imported products become cheaper, a benefit if you are buying or selling them. On the other hand, if you are exporting to another country, the higher Canadian dollar will cause Canadian products to be more expensive in the foreign country, causing sales to decline.

For Canada, U.S. economic performance is particularly relevant. Because much of our trade occurs with our American neighbour, the economic health of Canada is inevitably linked to the U.S. (see pie charts on page 19). In fact, Canada and the U.S. share the largest bilateral trade relationship on the planet. When the American economy turns down, their demand for our exports falls, ultimately slowing down our growth. It is often said that when the U.S. sneezes, Canada catches a cold.

[A. Fig Lee]

Покемонша, я Вам факты, а Вы мне теорию и прогнозы.
У Вас там спложные "may", "will"..

...Да знаем, мы знаем... И год назад слышали, что експорт упадет изза доллара. Факт - вырос. Второй по величине сурплус. И что благодаря низкому курсу американского доллара економика их попрет как из ведра. Пока прет слабее канадской. И что война в Ираке поможет економике. И что бензин подешевеет после войны в Ираке..

Прогнозы и теории..

[Boriskin]

А если серьезно, то у Канады достаточно велика сырьевая компонента в экономике, и поскольку причин для удешелвения ресурсов не наблюдается, то и перспективы соответствующие.

Самая большая то она да та о которой вы напомнили, а толку от её величины, жителям той страны никакого. Не в размерах дело, а в умных людях которые создают экономику, технологии, правовые основы, и человеческие условия, жителям этой страны. Поэтому и вы и я там уже не живем..

Я как то не врубился - вы хотите сказать что во всех сырьевых отраслях инопланетяне работают, не канадцы? И зарплаты/налоги и прочая типа никто не платит? Да и с правовыми основами у нас (кста, к тому, кто где не живет - слабО было на мой location посмотреть) слава богу много лучше чем на юге, как и с человеческими условиями и прочими маленькими и не очень прелестями жизни. Доходы ниже, факт, но мне моих на все хватает...

Ресурсы ресурсами, а цены самое главное.. Все это пузырь, который скоро лопнет..

Я не спорю с тем, что состояние ам. экономики непосредственно сказывается на канадской, по сути, тоже самое можно в той или иной мере сказать о любой нац. экономике (в случаях, когда она есть). Вместе с тем, я не понимаю поводов для лозунгов навроде выделенного - какой пузырь, что лопнет? Я тут полностью солидарен с АФигЛи - ыы что, хотите сказать что кнадская нефть эдак разом чик и закончится, и придет жопа? Или леса перестанут расти? Или дожди пропадут и наступит 23ехлетняя засуха, и все фермеры дружно покончат со своим бизнесом? Даже если США придет полная жопа, нефть от этого не испарится, будут ее продавать в Китай да Японию, хотя помучаться ессно придется..

Twenty-six of the 100 executives the central bank polled expected slower future sales, up from 21 in a July survey.

С учетом нормального распределения пессимистов по жизни - приведенные данные говорят скорее о том, что все в Канаде просто зашибись.

[Grant]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/dollar_cdn/

What's behind the soaring Canadian dollar?[br]
[...][br]
When the loonie has a big move in either direction, some of the effects are instantly obvious. In 2003, for example, exporters lost ground because Canadian products became more expensive for U.S. buyers. With a rising dollar, "the biggest impact is that exporters find it harder to compete," Shenfeld said.

That could mean lost jobs if the weakest companies are forced out of business. But Atkins said the loss of the price advantage arising from the cheap dollar will force exporters to be more efficient. "This will be good for them in the long run," he said.

Cheaper U.S. dollars also provide Canadian companies with an opportunity to invest in the tools that make them more competitive. Much of the software and machinery Canadian companies buy to run their operations are bought from the U.S. A more favourable exchange rate means those companies can invest more in those tools of efficiency.

For some companies, including those that have been reporting weaker American sales because of the loonie's gains, there can be yet another silver lining. As the Canadian dollar rises, the cost of repaying U.S. dollar debt falls, so forest products companies Abitibi-Price and Cascades, and Allstream (formerly AT&T Canada) all reported quarterly gains in 2003 based on the loonie's increase.

Snowbirds and other Canadian visitors to the U.S. are finding that their money goes much further – although not far enough to resurrect those days of cross-border shopping sprees from the early 1990s. (Conversely, U.S. visitors to Canada are finding that their money is buying less than it used to, to the dismay of the Canadian tourist industry.)

As the dollar jumped, companies that buy in U.S. dollars but sell in loonies, like petroleum refiners (which buy oil in U.S. dollars but sell gasoline in loonies) or telecommunication providers (which buy telecom equipment in U.S.-dollar markets, but bill Canadian subscribers in Canadian dollars) should be ahead.

But it's not clear that the gains have all been passed on, Atkins said. "That's the math," but it may be that all along the line, companies have taken a bit more profit.

[Calderone]

К счастью, кроме США есть еще Китай, которому подавай всего и побольше, и нефти, и сырья. Как вот сманеврировали со строительной древесиной.

[A. Fig Lee]

Грант, теорию и прогнозы мы знаем. пока не подтверждается..

[Grant]

Вообще-то у меня не было цели что-то предсказывать или кого-то переубеждать: просто скинул информацию по теме, которую увидел, читая CBC. И то правда: время покажет.