Why Housing Is About to Go "Pop!"

[Komissar]

поступило сообщение от живого антипода. На мой вопрос, ну так лопнул у вас пузырь или нет, такой ответ (от чела из сиднея):

Не дождетесь ...

Все пишут о каком-то мыльном пузыре, говорят, а цены (хоть на рент, хоть на покупку) только растут. Мы, три года назад, на Dee Why сняли двухбедренник за 250 в неделю. Сейчас квартиры такого уровня начинаются с 350. Если дешевле, это значит, либо дом старый, либо еще какое западло

[ax3816]

Real-estate buyers should plan to stay put

Jonathan Clements
Wall Street Journal
Nov. 10, 2004 11:45 AM

http://www.azcentral.com/business/artic ... 10-ON.html

Either way, you are betting the ranch.

Today's home buyers face an unenviable choice. Should they rush to buy because mortgage rates are so low? Or should they continue renting because properties are so pricey?

As you grapple with this tough decision, contemplate these three questions.

What if mortgage rates rise? If you postpone buying because you think property prices will plunge, you could be right about the real-estate market - and still wind up a loser.

(continued)

[ax3816]

North County real estate: back to normal

By: BRADLEY J. FIKES - Staff Writer
Last modified Wednesday, November 10, 2004 7:57 PM PST

http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2004/11 ... _10_04.txt

With the number of existing home listings up, sales dropping and the median price down slightly, the once-sizzling market for existing homes has returned to Earth, experts said this week.

For 2005, they say, that may mean a return to a sustainable pattern of single-digit growth in prices.

The median price of detached homes and condos fell to $510,000 in October from $515,000 in September and $525,000 in August, according to a report issued Tuesday by the San Diego County Association of Realtors. The median marks the midpoint of the price range.

Even though the median dropped 1 percent from September, the October price was still 25 percent higher than that of a year ago.

(continued)

[ivm]

Кирдык говорите ? ню-ню

http://vlasti.net/index/news/82989/main

[Kalifornian]

Кирдык говорите ? ню-ню

http://vlasti.net/index/news/82989/main

Похоже с географией плохо не только у американцев

По данным Института географии РАН, угрозе затопления подвергнутся все крупные города планеты. Судьбу легендарной Атлантиды повторят Лондон, Рим, Париж, Мадрид, Вашингтон, Нью-Йорк, Филадельфия и Балтимор. Кроме того, на дно Тихого океана опустятся Сан-Франциско, Лос-Анджелес и Вальпараисо.

Многие разлившиеся реки станут настоящей катастрофой: Амазонка смоет Рио-де-Жанейро, а река Парана затопит Буэнос-Айрес. В Австралии на дно моря уйдут Сидней, Мельбурн и Веллингтон, а в Африке - Кейптаун, Фритаун и Дурбан.

[/code]

[Komissar]

Стыдобище.

Вообще, российская пресса допускает столько ляпов - у них вообще что ли не проверяют и не редактируют лабуду, что журналисты несут с бодуна?

Кстати, в Б-Айресе река называется Ла-Плата, насколько я помню.

[RobinF]

http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/data.exe/cenc25/c25m01

US: Median Price of Houses Sold including Land Price
...
2003 01 181700.
2003 02 187000.
2003 03 185100.
2003 04 189500.
2003 05 195500.
2003 06 187900.
2003 07 190200.
2003 08 190500.
2003 09 192000.
2003 10 194100.
2003 11 207100.
2003 12 196000.
2004 01 209500.
2004 02 219600.
2004 03 209600.
2004 04 222300.
2004 05 211700.
2004 06 215700.
2004 07 214400.
2004 08 215900.
2004 09 197700.

-8.5% за месяц. -11% с апреля. В целом по стране.
В прошлом году (с апреля'03 по сентябрь'03) изменение было +1.3%.

За поручни хвататься будем?

[ax3816]

а тем временем реалторы продолжают рапортовать очередные достижения:

http://www.emediawire.com/releases/2004 ... 178362.htm

Tampa Bay Realtor releases fourth quarter report for Florida's Tampa Bay area

Tampa Bay Realtor John Mudd officially announces his fourth quarter "real time" real estate report for Florida's Tampa Bay area. Mudd is the only Tampa Bay Realtor who issues a "real time" report on local real estate trends.

(PRWEB) November 14, 2004 -- John Mudd, a Realtor with Exit Realty Suncoast in Largo who services Tampa, St. Petersburg, Clearwater, Tierra Verde, the Bayway Islands and Gulf beaches, recently released his fourth quarter "real time" real estate report for Florida's Tampa Bay area, which shows two things: Tampa Bay does not have a real estate "bubble" and people are still buying Tampa Bay real estate at ever-increasing prices in spite of recent hurricanes.

"I recently closed on a sale I brokered of a luxury waterfront condo for clients at $745,000 in Tierra Verde and I have a waterfront home under contract for clients in St. Pete Beach at $800,000. People who thought there was a 'bubble' or that prices were going to flatten because of hurricanes must have been out of their minds."

Mudd's report appears as a series of posts on his blog, Tampa Bay's Inside Real Estate Journal, www.insiderealestatejournal.blogspot.com.

John Mudd is a Realtor with Exit Realty Suncoast who specializes in assisting his clients in the sale and purchase of luxury, estate, beach and waterfront homes and condos throughout Tampa Bay, including Tierra Verde, the Bayway Islands, Gulf beaches and most other Tampa-Clearwater-St. Petersburg areas in the metro. You can find homes and condos or find out how to sell your home or condo on his website, www.HomeInTampaBay.com, where visitors can also get a free Home Evaluation that'll show them what their home or condo would sell for in today's real estate market, or more up to date real estate information via Mudd's real estate blog (www.insiderealestatejournal.blogspot.com). Mudd is also a contributing writer for the Inman Blog, the official blog of Inman News, a top daily real estate trade publication.

[serafim]

-8.5% за месяц. -11% с апреля. В целом по стране.
В прошлом году (с апреля'03 по сентябрь'03) изменение было +1.3%.

За поручни хвататься будем?

Рынок недвижимости - штука сугубо локальная. Цифры, что вы привели, не значат, по большому счету, ничего. Я не доверяю статистике, которая скачет, как горный козел. Что значит вот эта последовательность - 194-207-196-209?

Надо смотреть местную статистику, и даже не по штатам, и не по каунти, а по городам, или районам крупных городов.

[RobinF]

-8.5% за месяц. -11% с апреля. В целом по стране.
В прошлом году (с апреля'03 по сентябрь'03) изменение было +1.3%.

За поручни хвататься будем?

Рынок недвижимости - штука сугубо локальная. Цифры, что вы привели, не значат, по большому счету, ничего. Я не доверяю статистике, которая скачет, как горный козел. Что значит вот эта последовательность - 194-207-196-209?

Надо смотреть местную статистику, и даже не по штатам, и не по каунти, а по городам, или районам крупных городов.

Где б её еще взять... Только честную, а не от риэлтеров. OHFEO нормально, только отстаёт на полгода.

[Kalifornian]

Quarterly Home Sales Second-Highest Pace on Record

(November 15, 2004) -- Total state existing-home sales activity in the third quarter was at the second-highest pace on record, with 36 states posting increases from a year ago, according to the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®.

The NAR survey showed that nationwide, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of existing single-family, apartment condominium, and co-operative home sales totaled 7.66 million units in the third quarter of this year—up 4.1 percent from a 7.36 million-unit pace in the third quarter of 2003. The record was a level of 7.80 million units in the second quarter of this year; NAR began tracking state home sales in 1981.

Total sales rose by double-digit rates in 10 states in the third quarter compared to the same quarter in 2003; complete data for two states was not available.

David Lereah, NAR's chief economist, says home sales will easily set a record this year. "The last six months is the strongest stretch of home sales ever recorded," he says. "Low mortgage interest rates are a big factor, but even more important is the fundamental demand from a growing number of households in an environment of job growth and economic improvement."

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate on a 30-year conventional fixed-rate mortgage was 5.89 percent in the third quarter, down from 6.13 percent in the second quarter; the rate was 6.01 percent in the third quarter of 2003.

NAR President Al Mansell, CEO of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Salt Lake City, says strong sales to first-time buyers are providing liquidity to the housing market.

"Four out of 10 home purchases are by first-time buyers, providing a ready market for sellers and making it easier for them to buy another home," he says. "The positive market fundamentals mean we're in the midst of a housing expansion that will be driven by demographics going forward. Homeownership will continue to be the soundest investment most families will ever make."

The strongest year-to-year increase was in Arizona, where the third-quarter resale pace was 20.3 percent above the third quarter of 2003. Next came West Virginia, which rose 17.9 percent from a year ago. North Carolina posted the third strongest increase, up 17.5 percent from last year's third quarter rate.

Regionally, the best performance was in the South, which recorded a sales rate of 3.16 million units in the third quarter, up 5.6 percent from a year ago. After West Virginia and North Carolina, the strongest increase in the region was in Tennessee where the resale pace was 15.5 percent higher than the third quarter of 2003. Georgia experienced a 12.3 percent gain, while Virginia was up 9.4 percent during the same time frame.

In the West, the resale rate of 2.11 million units rose 5.3 percent from the third quarter of 2003. After Arizona, the next highest increase was in Wyoming where total existing-home sales rose 13.7 percent from a year ago. Nevada experienced an 11.6 increase from the third quarter of 2003, while Oregon was up 11.5 percent and New Mexico rose 10.4 percent.

In the Northeast, the total existing-home sales pace of 905,000 units in the third quarter increased 3.9 percent from a year ago. Massachusetts's sales activity rose 10.6 percent, Pennsylvania increased 7.6 percent and New Jersey was up 5.2 percent from a year ago.

In the Midwest, the 1.49 million-unit annual rate was 0.5 percent below the third quarter of 2003. Iowa led the region with an increase of 5.7 percent compared to the same period a year ago. Next was Illinois, where existing-home sales rose by 2.8 percent, followed by South Dakota, which increased 2.4 percent from the third quarter of 2003.

http://www.realtor.org/rmodaily.nsf/pag ... 2004111501

[Likenew]

Мы купили дом в мае, ну, не купили, а у нас приняли оффер. Тогда дома нашего плана редко могли перешагнуть через рубуж 350К. Один дом, как ссяс, помню оценяли в 351, 261 У них стоял хот таб на деке. Сейчас, я уже писала, что брокеры предлагают скидки по продаже, спрос высок очень. И что вы думаете, после этих писем, действительно появилось, много домов на продажу Я не поленилась, глянула цены, от 365К И дома продаются быстро . Вчера наши соседи напротив поставили табличку о продаже, у них за день, было точно 4 смотрящих,которых я видела лично, с утра до вечера ходили. Если честно, то страшно Наши соседи с бекярда купили дом на полгода раньше нас на 25К дешевле, чем мы, он, правда, выходит на улочку, по которой проезжают машины, не ездят, а проезжают . А вдруг гавкнется, ведь всем мало не покажется

[Kalifornian]

Housing market seen healthy ‘well into the future’

WASHINGTON - Interest rates on U.S. 30-and 15-year mortgages edged slightly lower in the week, mortgage finance company Freddie Mac said on Thursday.

U.S. 30-year mortgage rates fell to an average of 5.74 percent in the week ended Nov. 18, down from 5.76 percent a week earlier. Interest rates for 30-year mortgages have stayed in a range between 5.64 percent and 6.08 percent since July 8.

Freddie Mac said 15-year mortgages fell to 5.15 percent from 5.16 percent a week earlier. One-year adjustable rate mortgages averaged 4.17 percent in the week, up from 4.16 percent last week.

A year ago, 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.03 percent, 15-year mortgages 5.39 percent and the ARM 3.76 percent.

“Because long-term mortgage rates are still well below the peak levels reached last May of this year, housing starts are currently exceeding expectations,” Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist, said in a statement.

“With no dramatic rise in rates on the horizon, the housing industry should continue to be healthy well into the future,” he said.

U.S. housing starts jumped a larger-than-expected 6.4 percent in October to the busiest pace since December as buyers took advantage of low mortgage rates, a government report showed on Wednesday.

However, permits, an indicator of builder confidence, dipped unexpectedly.

Housing starts climbed to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.027 million units from an upwardly revised 1.905 million clip in September, the Commerce Department said. The gain in October erases a 5.6 percent drop the month before.

The Fed raised interest rates by a quarter point for the fourth time this year on Nov. 10. The U.S. central bank’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee has pledged to continue to boost interest rates at a “measured” pace to provide “ongoing support to economic activity.”

Freddie Mac said lenders charged an average of 0.6 percent in fees and points on 30-year and 15-year mortgages, both down from 0.7 percent a week ago. Fees and points on the ARM rose to 0.7 percent from 0.6 percent.

Freddie Mac is a mortgage finance company chartered by Congress that buys mortgages from lenders and packages them into securities for investors or holds them in its own portfolio.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5899422/

[Kalifornian]

MANY CALIFORNIANS HAVE CONSIDERED MOVING AWAY BECAUSE OF HIGH PRICES

Nearly a quarter of Californians say the high cost of housing has made them seriously consider moving away, a new survey shows, and a majority of the state's residents say they would favor new government efforts to make housing more affordable.

Housing prices are an issue for Olivia Horgan, a San Francisco renter who just finished law school. ``I actually almost moved to Portland and the housing prices, that was a big incentive to move,'' she said.

Horgan, 31, responded to the telephone survey conducted recently by the Public Policy Institute of California. It measured 2,502 Californians' housing and housing-policy opinions.

Her friends and her husband's job are keeping her in the Bay Area for now, she said, but lower home prices like those in Portland, Ore., might still lure the couple some day.

For Bay Area residents like Horgan, the results will come as no surprise. Conversations around water coolers and dinner tables frequently center on the high cost of housing and the trade-offs involved in living here.

Some 24 percent of Californians said those trade-offs had made them consider moving away, either to a different part of the state or out of state altogether. The number was slightly higher -- 27 percent -- for Bay Area residents.

Despite their concerns about housing prices, almost 60 percent of Californians said they are very satisfied with the neighborhood they live in, according to the study, which was conducted Oct. 21 to Nov. 1 in English, Spanish, Chinese, Korean and Vietnamese. But just 23 percent of homeowners and 18 percent of renters said it was very likely they could afford to buy a home they liked in the same area.

``Many of them feel stuck where they are, and I think there's a sense even among people who are in relatively good shape . . . they don't know exactly where to go or what to do at this point,'' said Mark Baldassare, research director at the institute.

Not all the survey's results were so bleak, Baldassare said. A majority said they would prefer to live in smaller homes with short commutes (61 percent) or neighborhoods where homes are close together but are walking distance to outdoor recreation (56 percent). Both options are typically cheaper than large homes on large lots, and the survey shows there is a market for them.

And Californians seem to want state and local policy-makers to try new things to ease the crunch.

A majority said they favor shifting property-tax dollars from state to local governments as an incentive to approve new housing developments. (Currently, many say, state tax policy leads local governments to favor retail or commercial development over housing.) A majority also said the state should use transportation funds to encourage local governments to develop integrated plans for housing, transit and jobs.

Shiloh Ballard, director of housing and community development for the Silicon Valley Manufacturing Group, spends a lot of time advocating for affordable housing. She said she's not surprised at the survey's findings.

But what people say in the abstract is not always how they feel about construction in their own neighborhoods.

``Definitely, the difficulty comes when you start talking about what parcel it is, where it's actually located,'' she said.

More than three-quarters of Californians said they were at least somewhat concerned that younger generations will not be able to afford homes in the areas where their parents live.

Horgan's case shows the fears are well founded.

``We probably can't earn the money to be able to pay the high prices'' here, said Horgan.

``I guess my bigger concern, even beyond my situation, is the effect of housing prices on low-income people in this city. I hate that people are getting pushed out'' and face long commutes from outlying towns if they wish to buy homes, she said.

IF YOU'RE INTERESTED

The survey will be posted today at www.ppic.org.

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercuryn ... 212315.htm

[Renegade]

``I guess my bigger concern, even beyond my situation, is the effect of housing prices on low-income people in this city. I hate that people are getting pushed out'' and face long commutes from outlying towns if they wish to buy homes, she said.

Хех. Ну прям как в Сим Сити 2004. Там что бы город развивался успешно и деньги прибывали надо непомерно задрать налоги. Тогда все с малым инкамом уезжают, остаются только с большим и город начинает процветать. А у нас главная задача как в игре - попасть во вторую группу, которая осталась

[Kalifornian]

А тем временем

The median price of existing single-family homes sold in Santa Clara County hit $600,000 in October, edging above the previous record price of $599,000, set in June.

The new record median price was 15 percent higher than in October 2003, according to DataQuick Information Systems, making last month the eighth consecutive month that prices have risen by at least 15 percent compared to year-ago levels.

A total of 1,753 houses and 649 condominiums sold in the county last month, or 10 percent fewer houses and 5.5 percent fewer condos than sold in October last year.

Sales volume was also down from last year in all other Bay Area counties, except Napa.

Prices rose even more steeply elsewhere than in Santa Clara County. Alameda County saw a 21 percent increase in the median price of existing houses sold, while prices rose 20 percent in San Francisco, and 19.2 percent in San Mateo County since October of last year.

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/10216278.htm

[Kalifornian]

Подробнее

MEDIAN PRICE UP 15 PERCENT IN YEAR

The Santa Clara County real estate market reached another symbolic milestone last month: The median price of houses sold here hit $600,000, edging above the previous peak of $599,000, set in June.

And if the assessment of local real estate agents is any indication, it won't be long until prices blast past that milestone. Few homes are for sale, and the competition for them is still strong, agents say.

The county's new record median price for existing single-family houses was 15 percent higher than in October 2003, according to DataQuick Information Systems, making it the eighth consecutive month that prices have risen by at least 15 percent compared with year-ago levels.

The $600,000 figure is notable because it's a big, round number. But it is not statistically significant, said Richard Calhoun of Creekside Realty, who compiles local real estate data daily.

``It's basically the same peak you hit in the summer,'' he said. ``The difference between $599,000 and $600,000 could easily be one sale, so that's pretty insignificant.''

The median price of condos and townhouses sold in the county last month was $395,000, or 16.2 percent higher than a year earlier.

A total of 1,753 resale houses and 649 condominiums were sold in the county last month, or 10 percent fewer houses and 5.5 percent fewer condos than were sold in October last year. Still, last month was the second strongest October on record, said DataQuick's John Karevoll.

Sales volume was down from last year in all other Bay Area counties except Napa.

But prices rose even more steeply elsewhere than in Santa Clara County. Alameda County saw a 21 percent increase in the median price of existing houses, while prices rose 20 percent in San Francisco and 21.9 percent in Santa Cruz County.

The data measures home sales that became final in October, meaning the transactions probably began in August or September. DataQuick collects sales and price information from county records.

The median price indicates that half the homes sold for more than that figure, and half sold for less.

Tracy Shanahan, 36, and his wife, Christine, have stopped house-hunting because prices in Silicon Valley have risen beyond what they can afford, Shanahan said. The couple rents a townhouse in Cupertino and has a 6-month-old son.

``I kind of thought that the housing prices might ease up as the loss of jobs went along here, and of course they did not,'' said Shanahan, a golf course superintendent.

They probably should have bought a house a few years ago, he said, but were worried about piling a mortgage on top of student loans. Also, they want a house with a yard, not a condo, and don't like much of what they see in their price range of about $450,000.

``We're not going to do the `buy out in Tracy and commute' sacrifice,'' he said.

The real estate market typically slows at this time of year, but local agents report that November has been tough for buyers because of continued competition for a limited number of properties.

Just 1,363 houses and 312 condos and townhouses were for sale in Santa Clara County as of Thursday. That's 38 percent fewer houses and 58 percent fewer condos than were on the market a year ago, according to Calhoun.

``Agents are having to write lots and lots of offers before they get one accepted'' for their buyer clients, said Nina Yamaguchi of Coldwell Banker in Cupertino. ``It's an as-is, free rent-back, no-contingencies kind of market in order to be competitive,'' she said, referring to the concessions buyers are having to make.

Local agents say they don't expect things to get much easier for buyers the rest of the year, when the number of homes for sale typically drops.

Sellers, however, should still be happy.

``If they didn't overprice it, they're going to sell it no matter what price range they're in, because we have so many buyers who are willing and able to buy,'' said Joe Brown of Coldwell Banker in San Jose.

The exceptions to that, realty agents say, are multimillion-dollar homes, which have not sold briskly since about four years ago.

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercuryn ... 218290.htm

[D L]

Хех. Ну прям как в Сим Сити 2004. Там что бы город развивался успешно и деньги прибывали надо непомерно задрать налоги. Тогда все с малым инкамом уезжают, остаются только с большим и город начинает процветать. А у нас главная задача как в игре - попасть во вторую группу, которая осталась Smile

чо то хреново мы брат справляемся, хоть вроде по инкаму нас и прочат в миддл класс.
А насчет налогов, так у нас с этим тоже проблемы, называется 13я поправка. В результате есть люди в блэкхоке, что живут в mansions и платят 50-60 в месяц. А есть я, и в чем я живу и сколько плачу ты и сам знаешь.

``I kind of thought that the housing prices might ease up as the loss of jobs went along here, and of course they did not,'' said Shanahan, a golf course superintendent.

Господи. Они бы еще детей что в Jack in the box подрабатывают выбрали бы для ревью. Все профессии хороши, конечно, но управляющему гольф площадкой жаловаться на то что не хватает денег купить фазенду на самом горячем рынке недвижимости планеты как-то не к лицу... А еще есть например почтальоны, что почту развозят на белых фургончиках с правым рулем, вот уж они-то точно непонятно почему не могут обустроиться в долинке не хуже прочих...

хотя кто его знает, как у них там с доходами, на гольф-площадках-то, конечно. У меня вот недалеко от дома есть футбольное поле. Там дети по выходным товарищеские матчи проводят. Пойти что ли поуправлять? Думаете, за моргидж заплатить хватит?..

[Mic]

А что там с пузырем-то? Такое ощущение, что все бросили продавать дома и начали покупать елки

[Кирпич]

А что там с пузырем-то? Такое ощущение, что все бросили продавать дома и начали покупать елки

На мой обывательский взгляд, пузырь дозрел. Лопнет он или потихоньку спуститься покажет время.
Примеры. Около меня пару домов сдается в рент - уже 4 месяца. Другой дом стоит на продажу примерно столько же. Цена помоему достигла критической точки вхождения.

[Mic]

У нас до фигища new construction townhouses с лета стоит на продажу - ажиотажного дикого спроса не наблюдается, но и цену они не скидывают.

У кого что еще?

[Papillon]

Дома стоят с лета...Цены не спускают,а если и спускают,то на незначительные суммы:так дом,которыи стоил в Августе 425K,сеичас стоит за 419K
Когда же пузырь лопнет?

[Mic]

Когда же пузырь лопнет?

Скорее всего, что большого пука не будет, а будет плавное (года на 3-5) падение.
Но похоже покупать попкорн и занимать места в зрительном зале скоро будет уже можно.

[aas996]

Дома стоят с лета...Цены не спускают,а если и спускают,то на незначительные суммы:так дом,которыи стоил в Августе 425K,сеичас стоит за 419K Когда же пузырь лопнет?

Когда 30-yr fixed доидет хотя б до > 7%, а лучше 8 - 9 %.
При rate по-прежнему < 6%, лопнуть очень трудно.
У нас в основном стоят upper-bracket дома, где mortgage % играет
малую роль: один с лета, недавно снизили с 950 K до 875 K.
Шикарныи дом, > 7000 sq. ft.

[Kalifornian]

А у нас действительно все бросили продавать дома и покупают ёлки. На рынке практически ничего нет.

Знакомый хочет записатся на new townhouse готовность к весне. И говорит, что каждый релиз цену на предложенную модель немного поднимают.