Why Housing Is About to Go "Pop!"

[D L]

скоко щас, что за таунхаус? Я вот тоже имею в планах на пенинсулу переехать...
тханкс.

[Kalifornian]

скоко щас, что за таунхаус? Я вот тоже имею в планах на пенинсулу переехать...
тханкс.

Вот это он смотрит http://www.taylorwoodrowna.com/index.cf ... nityID=116

Билдер говорит, что это дом, а я всё же думаю таунхауз. Опять же если там купить то ребенка придется возить в частную школу.

[Komissar]

есть такой стиль - row houses, это они и есть.

Но локация вроде как не на Пенинсуле, а в Сан-Хосе?

[Kalifornian]

Ага это Сан-Хосе. Пенинсула стала просто неподъемной.

[Kalifornian]

Housing Market To End Year on Strong Note

WASHINGTON (December 7, 2004) – Stronger than expected home sales and higher median prices have caused the National Association of Realtors® to revise upward its year-end forecast. Existing-home sales are expected to jump 7.9 percent to 6.58 million* in 2004, well above last year's record. For 2005, NAR projects 6.38 million sales, which would be the second highest level on record.

The national median existing-home price is projected to rise 7.9 percent to $182,500 for the year. The median new-home price should increase 8.9 percent to $214,600.

New-home sales will rise 8.9 percent to 1.18 million this year and 1.13 million are forecast for 2005, just shy of the record expected this year. Housing starts are seen at 1.95 million this year, the highest level since 1978; housing construction is projected at 1.87 million units in 2005.

David Lereah, NAR's chief economist, said that some of the backup in housing demand is being met. "We're setting our fourth consecutive record year for existing-home sales, and even with strong fundamentals such as household growth, low interest rates and an improving economy, we simply can't set records every year," Lereah said. "Given the sharp rise over last year's record, a lot of buyers have found the home they've been looking for and we can expect a bit of a breather in 2005, which will remain a historically strong year."
Lereah predicts the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage should rise slowly but average only 6.4 percent next year.

In 2005, Lereah expects the median existing-home price to rise 5.0 percent and the typical new home price to grow by 5.8 percent. "The slowing rate of price growth will be good news for first-time buyers, but since inflation is expected to remain modest, home prices will still be rising a little faster than the historic norm of 1-to-2 percentage points above the rate of inflation," Lereah said.

http://www.realtor.org/PublicAffairsWeb ... enDocument

[Kalifornian]

А вот что пишут про Silicon Valley в House Price Index for the Third Quarter of 2004 от U.S. Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight ( http://www.ofheo.gov/HPI.asp )

California – Silicon Valley Appreciation No Longer Flat, But Still Slower
than Elsewhere in California

California continues to rank in the top five among states for annual appreciation.
This quarter, it ranks third, with annual appreciation of 27.18 percent. The only
two states to surpass California were Hawaii and Nevada. Metropolitan areas
within California continually appear among the top twenty when ranked on annual
house price growth. The metropolitan area with the highest annual growth in the
second quarter was Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, with house price
growth of 33.81 percent.
Since 2001, Silicon Valley has provided something of an exception to the stellar
growth seen in the rest of California. Real inflation-adjusted prices in San
Francisco-Oakland-Fremont and San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara (Figure 1)
exhibited bubble behavior in the late 1980s and early 1990s2. However, despite
increases in the late 1990s comparable to the bubble-run up in the late 1980s,
house prices did not fall in response to the dot-com bubble. Instead, prices in San
Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara remained almost flat from 2001. San Francisco’s
prices have not been flat, in part because they did not rise as quickly in 2001 as
did San Jose area prices. Over the past year, unadjusted house prices in San
Francisco-Oakland-Fremont and San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara rose 17.2
percent and 12.5 percent, respectively. Along with Santa Cruz-Watsonville,
which borders San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara to the west and which had
annual appreciation of 14.7 percent, these three metropolitan areas rank lowest in
house price growth of all metropolitan areas in California.
San Jose’s unemployment rate in September dropped to 5.5 percent from 7.9
percent a year earlier, the largest drop in any metropolitan area. Some reduction
in the unemployment rate could be accounted for by job-seekers leaving the area,
but Mountain View, California-based Google and its successful initial public offering
serve as an example of the area’s continued strength in technology.
Recent reports indicate that sales of office property in San Francisco were up
considerably in the third quarter. The unemployment rate at the end of the third
quarter fell to 4.2, from 5.5 one year earlier.

[MOHCTP]

скоко щас, что за таунхаус? Я вот тоже имею в планах на пенинсулу переехать...
тханкс.

Вот это он смотрит http://www.taylorwoodrowna.com/index.cf ... nityID=116

Билдер говорит, что это дом, а я всё же думаю таунхауз. Опять же если там купить то ребенка придется возить в частную школу.

Beacon Hill Directions
Curtner Avenue Exit off of Highway 87 in San Jose. Between 87 and Monterey Street on Curtner.

И ребёнка в частную школу и самому короткими перебежками.

[Kalifornian]

Beacon Hill Directions
Curtner Avenue Exit off of Highway 87 in San Jose. Between 87 and Monterey Street on Curtner.

И ребёнка в частную школу и самому короткими перебежками.

Детей у него нет, а парень он здоровый. Отобьётся

[ax3816]

Housing Market To End Year on Strong Note

WASHINGTON (December 7, 2004) – Stronger than expected home sales and higher median prices have caused the National Association of Realtors® to revise upward its year-end forecast.

Ну, а теперь выслушаем другую сторону

California, U.S. in a Housing 'Bubble,' UCLA Forecast Says

Wed Dec 8, 7:55 AM ET
Top Stories - Los Angeles Times
By Bill Sing Times Staff Writer

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=s ... recastsays

Economists at UCLA have invoked the B-word again.

In an outlook to be formally released today, forecasters say California and the nation are beset by a housing "bubble" that will depress construction next year, slowing the nation's economic recovery.

Yet the fallout from the bubble in California won't be devastating, according to the UCLA Anderson Forecast. Indeed, the Golden State's economy will expand at a faster clip than the nation's in 2005, thanks in part to a recovering Bay Area, the widely watched forecast says.

All in all, next year is shaping up as "solid but not spectacular" for California, said Christopher Thornberg, a UCLA Anderson Forecast senior economist and author of its state outlook.

Across California, nonfarm payroll jobs are expected to grow 1.6% next year, up from 0.8% this year, the UCLA forecast says. Personal incomes are projected to increase 5.2% next year, compared with 5.6% this year.

Although UCLA economists have raised the specter of a housing bubble in previous reports, they are now identifying it as the biggest risk to the U.S. economy.

"The housing sector's high and unusual contribution" to economic growth "is not going to continue in 2005," said Edward Leamer, director of the forecasting group and author of its national outlook.

The less-than-upbeat analysis is sure to raise plenty of eyebrows because the UCLA group was among the first to foresee the 2001 recession as well as slower growth earlier this year.

For all that, though, many experts inside and outside the housing industry reject the notion that there's a bubble waiting to pop.

They say real estate prices today are rationally propelled by low mortgage rates and high demand, while construction is justified by population growth. In California, they note, demand continues to be strong, and building in many areas has been constrained by land limitations and regulatory hurdles.

"To have a bubble, you have to have oversupply," said Alan Nevin, chief economist for the California Building Industry Assn. "We don't have oversupply."

For their part, UCLA economists contend that inflation-adjusted mortgage rates are on par with those of the 1970s and early '80s, and above those of the 1960s — all periods when prices did not rise as fast as they have today. What's more, they contend, current population growth is being driven by lower-income immigrants who cannot afford homes at current prices.

UCLA economists pointed out that inflation-adjusted home prices have risen by more than 5% annually over the last five years, five times the usual rate. Prices nationwide are now 25% above their historical long-term average, they said.

In the eyes of the UCLA analysts, the main culprit for California's housing bubble is excessive price increases rather than overbuilding.

"People here have been buying homes as if prices are going to go up 10% every year" forever, Thornberg said. But when prices finally level off or even decline, he suggested, consumers will curb spending, and that could slow the state's economy.

It's too hard, Thornberg added, to predict just when the bubble will burst — or whether it will simply deflate slowly. "Bubbles, once they get going, tend to take a life of their own," he said.

In Southern California, particularly, housing prices continue to appreciate by at least 20% a year. Evidence is emerging, however, that prices are starting to flatten on a month-to-month basis as the supply of homes on the market grows.



The UCLA analysts foresee the number of residential building permits slipping in California to 204,800 next year from 207,000 this year.

The state's building industry trade group is forecasting a similar trend but it considers the decline marginal.

"It's a pretty bright projection for 2005," Nevin said. California builders are on pace to construct the most homes in 2004 than in any year since 1989.

Outside of California, overbuilding is viewed as the main problem by UCLA. One telling statistic: The nation has added one new residential unit for every adult added to the population over the last two years. The historical average is one unit for every 1.7 new adults.

The bottom line: Today's pace of construction can't be sustained, Leamer said. Housing starts nationwide are expected to slow to 1.8 million units next year from 1.94 million this year.

In turn, the home-building slowdown will throttle U.S. economic growth to an annualized pace of 2.8% by the second half of next year, Leamer predicted. That is about half a percentage point lower than UCLA's previous forecast in September and contrasts with an expected inflation-adjusted growth rate of 4.4% for all of this year compared with 2003.

Other experts agree that housing will slow the expansion next year. A survey of 28 industry analysts and economists conducted last month by the Federal Reserve (news - web sites) Bank of Chicago said the U.S. economy would cool next year because of a sharp slowdown in housing.

Still, other growth estimates tend to be higher than UCLA's.

The National Assn. of Realtors on Tuesday raised its forecast for sales of new and existing U.S. homes in 2005. But it still expects both categories to fall, which would result in the first such decline in five years.

The trade group anticipates that existing-home sales will hit 6.38 million next year, down from 6.58 million this year. New-home sales are expected to reach 1.13 million in 2005, compared with 1.18 million this year.

"A lot of buyers have found the home they've been looking for, and we can expect a bit of a breather in 2005," NAR Chief Economist David Lereah said.

Michael Bazdarich, another UCLA Anderson Forecast senior economist, said a home-building slowdown could mean one bit of good news for consumers: The trend should prompt the Federal Reserve to slow its pace of interest rate hikes.

The Fed's benchmark short-term interest rate, now at 2%, will hit 3% in 2005 and level off at 3.5% in 2006, he predicted.

Times staff writer Annette Haddad contributed to this report.

[MOHCTP]

Beacon Hill Directions
Curtner Avenue Exit off of Highway 87 in San Jose. Between 87 and Monterey Street on Curtner.

И ребёнка в частную школу и самому короткими перебежками.

Детей у него нет, а парень он здоровый. Отобьётся

Может ему сразу в East Palo Alto если такой здоровый?

[NskCA]

historic prices (picture)

[Komissar]

ссылочку на картинку не кинете?

[NskCA]

ссылочку на картинку не кинете?

Ссылки на картинку нет, есть ссылка на статью где ее используют:
http://www.economist.com/finance/displa ... id=3477796

[Komissar]

ну как же нет ссылки на картинку... кто ищет, то всегда найдет

[Kalifornian]

Ну и какой вывод делаем из картинки?

[NskCA]

Ну и какой вывод делаем из картинки?

В Японии надо закупаться

[Komissar]

Мне как-то трудно поверить, что в Японии жилье сейчас дешевле, чем в 85 г. Непонятно, как "Экономист" считал цены: с инфляцией/без?

Кто тут бывал/живал в Японии - проясните ситуацию!

А так, делаем вывод, что нашему американскому пузырю еще есть куда дуться... в Кали, правда, уже с трудом.

[NskCA]

Непонятно, как "Экономист" считал цены: с инфляцией/без?

На картинке написано что реальные цены,
т.е. инфляционный рост цен вычтен.

Кстати, если вы внимательно посмотрели на табличку в статье, то вы
увидели что например в Гонконге изменение с 97 по 04 год -49%
Причем я думаю это изменение уже без инфляции. Пузырек там
был не слабый.

[aas996]

Мне как-то трудно поверить, что в Японии жилье сейчас дешевле, чем в 85 г. Непонятно, как "Экономист" считал цены: с инфляцией/без?

After inflation (написано "REAL" housing prices).
Естественно, номинальные цены в US возросли с 1975 не на 50%,
а во много раз. Если полагать, что housing prices не должны расти
быстрее чем inflation in the long-term, коррекция к 100% неизбежна
(то есть падение реальных цен на ~ 30 %), как произошло в UK в
1980-x и Японии с 1990-х - на етом графике. Др. дело, что в Японии
в 1990-е была не inflation, a deflation, так что номинальные цены упали
даже больше чем те что показаны! И да, во многих местах Японии
жилье сеичас не дороже чем в 1985.

А так, делаем вывод, что нашему американскому пузырю еще есть куда дуться... в Кали, правда, уже с трудом.

Во многих местах US нет никакого пузыря. Где я живу - appreciation
2 - 4% в год в среднем, 5 - 6% макс. Дома практически стоят ат
replacement cost: $ 80 - 100 sq.ft/(т.е земля почти бесплатна).
V upper bracket (> 500 K) дома не продаются многие месяцы,
многие снизили цены на 5 - 10%. Один из самых сногсшибательных
домов что я видел в жизни (US president было б не стыдно в retirement)
на рынке с весны, 875 К.

[Renegade]

А так, делаем вывод, что нашему американскому пузырю еще есть куда дуться... в Кали, правда, уже с трудом.

Не забывайте что вся наша Калифорния, это почти как Англия по площади, а то даже и больше. Так что здесь мы с нимим на одном уровне где-то.

[Kalifornian]

Не забывайте что вся наша Калифорния, это почти как Англия по площади, а то даже и больше. Так что здесь мы с нимим на одном уровне где-то.

Только народу нас в три раза меньше, да и помоложе мы.

[NYgal]

U.S. HOUSING DATA ARE IN TOUCH WITH UNREALITY


http://nypost.com/business/36022.htm

[Komissar]

Housing bubble is real, report says

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/inv ... P87483.asp


Bank predicts a 'hard landing' by mid-2005. And regulators say too many homeowners are cashing out their equity to play the market.

Only days after the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said there was little evidence of a nationwide housing bubble, HSBC, a giant bank and financial services company, issued its assessment of the situation with a report titled, "The U.S. Housing Bubble -- The case for a home-brewed hangover." The bank insists that a bubble exists and prices are likely to deflate gradually over a few years, triggered by Federal Reserve interest rate rises.

Over the four years to the first quarter of 2004, official figures show house prices rose 33% nationally. Over the same period, prices in Washington, D.C., were up 70%, in California 60% and in New York and Florida 50%.

а вот и немного неожиданная инфа:

Stock brokers are apparently reaching out, too. Wednesday, the regulatory agency NASD warned that too many house-rich Americans are borrowing money against their homes to play the stock market.

из того, что я слышу и вижу, народ сторонится биржи, как чумы

И далее:

About 11% of gains from mortgage refinancings were plowed into the stock market and other financial investments in 2001 through mid-2002, up from less than 2% in 1998 through mid-1999, a recent Federal Reserve study showed.

Вывод:

A hard landing ahead

[Kalifornian]

В Японии надо закупаться

А я вот подумал наверно надо в Киеве прикупить чего. Глядишь после победы правильного кандидата появится план Маршалла для Украины.

[ivm]

В Японии надо закупаться

А я вот подумал наверно надо в Киеве прикупить чего. Глядишь после победы правильного кандидата появится план Маршалла для Украины.

Самое смешное это то что я как то искал чего-то поиском на привете и натолкнулся на топик 2002 года и тогда все тоже говорили о несусветном бабл и что все грохнется с треском через год... ндя... теперь мы в 2005-м... цены продолжают расти