Why Housing Is About to Go "Pop!"

[redline]

Так надо скорее брать - "пока не началось" (с)

[andrey_a1]

А теперь вроде даже уже и неинтересно отслеживать.
Волна падения пошла, теперь можно только беседовать о деталях - где насколько упадет, как быстро и насколько долго.
Пора начинать думать что следующим будет взлетать и падать

И это не может не радовать. Я домик как раз стал подыскивать, с ходу 5-10К с цены сбрасывают начальной.

А на сколько сбрасывают цены на тот таунхауз?

5К всего

Не всего, а пока еще.

Я уже 6й годы слышу что "вот-вот" и начнется.....пока не начинается:-)

Как не начинается? А $5K off?

[Nata Ivanova]

http://www.boston.com/news/local/massac ... r_january/

Massachusetts home sales hit 10-year low for January

[Nata Ivanova]

Как вам нравится такой фрод?

http://bubltrbl.blogspot.com/2006/02/i- ... south.html

One Reason Why the Real Estate MLS shows property values in South Florida going up, up, up.
...
The ‘sold price’ of real estate is input by the selling agent and is often inflated by the realtor so as not to reflect low sale prices or prices not close to asking prices.
...
Here’s an example:

3505 South Ocean Drive Hollywood, Fl. Last 20 sold listings. 14 MLS records matched the tax records. 6 did not. They were:

MLS M929875 shows sold for $445k tax records reflect $415k
MLS M998406 shows sold for $450k tax records reflect $410k
MLS D1069919 shows sold for $330k tax records reflect $300k
MLS H781865 shows sold for $455k tax records reflect $380k ouch!
MLS N243785 shows sold but there’s no tax record of the sale. Possibly the property didn’t even sell.
MLS D1046673 shows sold for $460k tax records reflect $392k ouch!

[Misha]

[

Как не начинается? А $5K off?

стабилизация. Вот когда будет 5% off, тогда можно будет задуматься.

[RobinF]

Не успела я к раздаче... так и не поняла чем Комиссара обозвали. Но мы за него все копья тут переломаем! Зачем абижаешь!!!

Никто его не обзывал! Сокращение ника до первых 5 букв обзыванием не считается!

[Komissar]

Не врите RobinF. Хотя бы найдите в себе мужество на это.

[RobinF]

Я уже 6й годы слышу что "вот-вот" и начнется.....пока не начинается:-)

6 лет назад Вы могли слышать только про .com bubble. Guess what, ...

[RobinF]

Не врите RobinF. Хотя бы найдите в себе мужество на это.

Вы о чем? Еще раз, Вас никто не обзывал. Предмет Вашей спекуляции - да, но то ж кусок картона, а не живой человек.

[Бродяга]

Так надо скорее брать - "пока не началось" (с)

Для этого сижу в MLS изучаю что за что продается.

[Nata Ivanova]

http://originatortimes.com/content/temp ... 9&zoneid=5
National Foreclosures Increase 27 Percent in January

http://money.cnn.com/2006/02/28/news/ec ... /index.htm
California home sales drop 24% in January

[Komissar]

Не врите RobinF. Хотя бы найдите в себе мужество на это.

Вы о чем? Еще раз, Вас никто не обзывал. Предмет Вашей спекуляции - да, но то ж кусок картона, а не живой человек.

Еще раз вам повторяю, что вы меня оскорбили. Если бы в вашем посту не было оскорбительных выпадок, модератор не удалил бы часть вашего текста. Я вам в последний раз предлагаю честно, без ужимок и кривляний, извиниться передо мной - and we'll put the matter behind us.

[Nata Ivanova]

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f ... HFB7V1.DTL

Жители Калифорнии не прочь покинуть штат:
"Forty percent said they have considered moving out of the region"

Земля кончается, говорите?
Скоро жители кончатся

[aas996]

Земля кончается, говорите?
Скоро жители кончатся

Я б сказал, Ваша ссылка скорее утверждает обратное:

Still, the Cranes say other costs -- such as property taxes and food -- are much more expensive than in the Bay Area. Ultimately, the couple hopes to move back to San Francisco after their two children, now ages 2 and 4, go to college.

"Everyone is working so hard here to pay the heating bill and the taxes," Crane said. "In the Bay Area, people work hard, but they also play hard. We miss that."

[Nata Ivanova]

Ну через 16 лет вернутся
Сейчас то хотят уехать.
А через 16 лет кто его знает где чего будет.

[RobinF]

Не врите RobinF. Хотя бы найдите в себе мужество на это.

Вы о чем? Еще раз, Вас никто не обзывал. Предмет Вашей спекуляции - да, но то ж кусок картона, а не живой человек.

Еще раз вам повторяю, что вы меня оскорбили. Если бы в вашем посту не было оскорбительных выпадок, модератор не удалил бы часть вашего текста. Я вам в последний раз предлагаю честно, без ужимок и кривляний, извиниться передо мной - and we'll put the matter behind us.

Еще раз - на что именно Вы оскорбились?

Ой, извините, больше так не буду, особенно если объясните, на что именно Вы обиделись?
...

P.S. Извините заранее, если какое слово опять показалось нехорошим - пишите в ЛС - исправлю, честно. Не малейшего желания Вам хамить не было - мир, дружба, жвачка.

Еще 5 раз извиниться неизвестно за что? Имейте совесть.

[Komissar]

Еще раз, медленно и по слогам: посмотрите, что именно было вынуто модератором из вашего постинга. Сделайте выводы. Если не можете - это ваши проблемы.

Отныне вы у меня в игноре. Bye.

[Misha]

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/02/27/BAG6OHFB7V1.DTL

Жители Калифорнии не прочь покинуть штат:
"Forty percent said they have considered moving out of the region"

Земля кончается, говорите?
Скоро жители кончатся

Не кончатся. Китай с Мексикой - неисчерпаемый кладезь будущух жителей Калифорнии. Да и потом не так оно и супер-дорого там. Знакомый переехал недавно из района Сан Франциско в район Чикаго, искал дом в хорошем районе (з/п позволяет) - говорил, что не дешевле выходит.

[andrey_a1]

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/02/27/BAG6OHFB7V1.DTL

Жители Калифорнии не прочь покинуть штат:
"Forty percent said they have considered moving out of the region"

Земля кончается, говорите?
Скоро жители кончатся

Не кончатся. Китай с Мексикой - неисчерпаемый кладезь будущух жителей Калифорнии. Да и потом не так оно и супер-дорого там. Знакомый переехал недавно из района Сан Франциско в район Чикаго, искал дом в хорошем районе (з/п позволяет) - говорил, что не дешевле выходит.

Так отож и оно! Переезжают всякие из Калифорнии и тут же цены
поднимаются до калифорнийского уровня.

[ax3816]

http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/ar ... /602270344
Defaults soaring in state
Wayne County ranks worst in the nation for foreclosures

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/bus ... 84593.html
Watchdogs are unleashed
San Francisco puts a bounty on property tax evasion, and some do-gooders could get $500,000

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 01175.html
Washington Area Housing Prices Witness Small Dip

The data are not seasonally adjusted, so the drop could represent a normal sales slump with the onset of winter. Moreover, the existing-home-sales data can vary depending on what type of houses sell in a given period. If a lot of small houses change hands, the median sale price can fall even if the underlying housing market didn't change.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pi ... refer=home
U.S. Jan. New Home Sales Fell 5% to 1.233 Mln Rate
Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- New-home sales in the U.S. fell to the lowest level in a year in January and the number of properties on the market was the most ever, more signs housing is losing its luster after five record years.


http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascit ... 963021.htm
Bogus appraisals stress housing market

The FBI estimates that last year loan fraud bilked lenders and consumers of more than $1 billion — twice the loss reported in 2004.

Annie Lewis bought a condo for $94,000 that she then refinanced. An appraiser sent by Ameriquest valued her home at $129,000. When she went to refinance again, she found that her home was worth only $108,000.


http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.c ... HEFJM1.DTL
Homeowners' equity stakes deciphered

Some of the findings appear to support the stretched-to-the-limit, debt-binging image critics ascribe to today's homeowners and borrowers. Among 2004-05 borrowers:

-- Nearly 1 out of 10 had no or negative equity as of September. Five percent were in negative territory by more than 10 percent. That is, their combined mortgage debts exceeded their home values by more than 10 percent.

-- Nearly 30 percent had equity cushions of less than 20 percent. Forty-four percent had less than a 30 percent cushion.

-- State-by-state net equity holdings were sobering in some cases. More than 28 percent of Colorado buyers or refinancers had less than 5 percent equity in their properties. Nearly 24 percent of Ohio owners were in the same situation, as were 13 percent in Washington, D.C., and around 11 percent in California and Florida.

http://www.honoluluadvertiser.com/apps/ ... 60312/1071
Still waiting for a buyer

Last month, they lowered their asking price from $590,000 to $575,000, which positioned it well below January's median sale price of $615,000 for a single-family home.

If nothing happens at their eighth consecutive open house today, 56 days will have passed since the Sturnicks put their house up for sale. The 3-year-old house has two stories, three bedrooms, a two-car garage, central air conditioning and probably would have had people lined up to buy it just four or five months ago.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/sddt/20060224/l ... saydealsto
Downtown San Diego condo market stalls, brokers say deals to be made - Yahoo! News
Jim Abbott of Prudential California Realty says there are nearly 600 existing residential (primarily condominium) units for resale downtown, and that they could take a long time to absorb.

"The number of closed units in the 92101 ZIP code was 42 last month," Abbott said. "Prices are soft and buyers are making some awesome deals."

http://www.bonitanews.com/news/2006/feb ... local_news
Real estate market flooded with sellers

The market is flush with sellers, many seeking to cash out on appreciation gains that have been among the highest in the country.

It’s a buyers market in the two-county area, “but the sellers don’t know it yet,” said Joe Ballarino, a past president of the Naples Area Board of Realtors who posts area market statistics on his blog.

As of last week, there were more than 8,000 homes and condominiums on the market in the Naples area — almost as many as the roughly 8,900 that sold during all of last year, Ballarino said.

This time last year, Realtors watched eager buyers snatch up homes within days or hours of listing. Now, homes are lingering on the market, and “just reduced” signs — although not a flood of them — are starting to pop up on yard signs advertising houses for sale.

http://www.businessweek.com/investor/co ... 873540.htm
Getting Hip to Home Buying
For many first-timers, buying into the American Dream can be a nightmare. Here are some tips to keep house and hopes together

http://biz.yahoo.com/cnnm/060224/022406 ... tions.html
Cancelled home orders: Latest bubble prick?: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance
Home builders are growing concerned about an increasing number of cancelled new home orders, which experts say could be a sign of an underlying weakness in the recent run in home prices.

Specifically, the cancelled orders could be the latest warning sign that buyers who were turning to real estate as an investment, rather than for their own housing needs, are shifting out of real estate. And that could mean that in many hot markets, the air is about to come out of over-inflated real home prices overall.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/n ... ome24.html
The Seattle Times: Nation & World: Rising debt offsets home-equity gains
But wealth, or net worth, measures the value of a household's assets minus its debts — such as mortgages, car loans, student loans and credit-card balances. And debt climbed steadily during the survey period, as the Fed slashed interest rates to stimulate borrowing and spending in rocky economic times.

After totaling up both sides of the ledger, the median net worth of American households rose just 1.5 percent over the three years measured, to $93,100, according to the Fed's report, which is compiled every three years to provide a portrait of family finances.

By comparison, median family wealth rose 10.3 percent in the previous survey period, from 1998 through 2001, and shot up 17.4 percent from 1995 to 1998, during an economic boom that pushed up stock prices and wages.

http://www.myrtlebeachonline.com/mld/cc ... 951632.htm
Average incomes in U.S. fall for first time since early '90s

Average incomes after adjusting for inflation actually fell from 2001 to 2004, and the growth in net worth was the weakest in a decade, the Federal Reserve reported Thursday

http://today.reuters.com/business/newsa ... GES-DC.XML
Consolidation and lay-offs hit mortgage industry

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A major transition is underway in the U.S. mortgage lending industry, with consolidations and lay-offs at the forefront as companies try to deal with waning demand for home loans.


http://www.modbee.com/local/story/11838 ... 3268c.html
Homes sold for a median $386,750 in Stanislaus County, which was about $5,250 less than the record set in December.

Despite last month's drop, Stanislaus County's median sales price still was a whopping $71,750 more than a year ago, according to statistics gathered by DataQuick Information Systems.

http://www.dailynews.com/business/ci_3540064
The Los Angeles metropolitan area remained the nation's least affordable housing market for the sixth consecutive quarter in the final three months of last year, a trade association said Thursday.

http://www.azcentral.com/community/chan ... 223Z6.html
11,521 homes for sale
The number of single-family homes for sale in the Southeast Valley reached 11,521 last month, which, if not a record, is at least the highest number in recent years.

The last time the Southeast Valley had listings in the 10,000 range was in late 2002 and early 2003, according to the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service Inc.

Realtors and housing analysts believe the number of listings is high because investors have begun dumping houses, home sales are usually slow in the beginning of the year and people who wanted to move held off because it was so difficult to buy another home for about a year.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/business/lo ... 4373.story
S. Fla. home sales market continues to cool: South Florida Sun-Sentinel
South Florida's housing market continued to cool in January, according to figures released Tuesday by the Florida Association of Realtors.

Sales of existing single-family homes declined dramatically across the region, compared to January 2005, the Orlando-based Realtors group said.


http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pbcs. ... 6/-1/RSS05
Housing slowdown confirmed

WASHINGTON -- Sales of new homes came in at the slowest pace in a year in January, and the backlog of unsold homes rose to an all-time high, the Commerce Department reported Monday.

http://www.sltrib.com/ci_3553708
Salt Lake Tribune - Salt Lake Tribune Home Page
Pop! goes the bubble as home sales slow
West is the exception: As the market for new homes cools nationally, Utah reports a gain


http://www.usnews.com/usnews/biztech/bu ... 060228.htm
USNews.com: Biz Buzz: Housing under pressure (2/28/06)
This morning, the National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes fell 2.8 percent in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.56 million new units. Existing condominium and co-op sales were even worse, falling 10.6 percent last month.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. ... mbers.html
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Stunning PMI Numbers
MicaNews is reporting PrivateMI Helps More Families Achieve Homeownership in January. What the headline should read is "The bottom falls out of PMI applications".

http://www.axcessnews.com/modules/wfsec ... cleid=8392
AXcessNews.com - The American Dream: Dangerous Curves Ahead
American families fall into two categories: those that are buying a house or condo and those that are not. Driven by the "American Dream", the barometer of success for a family is a home, offering at least the appearance of stability and safety as well as a visible and tangible center for their memories.

Don't think for a minute that the haves are any better off than the have-nots. In far too many cases, the haves now numbering 70% of the population are not always able to afford the mortgages they currently own, jeopardizing all of the positive attributes a family home can offer.

http://www.bankrate.com/brm/story_conte ... _uid=18359
Used-home sales fall as bubble talk resumes
For the fifth month in a row, resales of previously owned homes have fallen. Prices are flat. Treasury yields are down about 5 basis points across the board, possibly heralding a small drop in mortgage rates.

http://bubblemeter.blogspot.com/2006/02 ... on-dc.html
Bubble Meter: A Real Estate P/E Ratio for Washington DC
We can use the DC RE P/E Ratio to give us an idea of how overall prices and rents are interacting within the DC metro area market. This dramatic increase in P/E means that housing prices have been increasing much faster then rents. It seems that now would be a very bad time to buy an investment property. We will have to wait until either condo prices drop or rents rise significantly in order to be able to get a better (or any) return on our investment.


http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/13982370.htm
MiamiHerald.com | 02/28/2006 | January home sales fall in South Florida; prices are flat

Home sales plunged in South Florida last month as the real estate market continued to retreat from last year's frenetic pace, the Florida Association of Realtors reported Tuesday.

http://today.reuters.com/investing/fina ... 28116201:1
Stock Market News and Investment Information | Reuters.com
WASHINGTON, Feb 28 (Reuters) - The U.S. housing market has begun to cool, new data showed on Tuesday, as the pace of home resales slowed in January and the number of homes on the market hit a high not seen since 1998.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060227/lam119.html
Standard Pacific Corp. Reports 2006 New Home Orders Through February 26: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance

New home orders companywide for the year-to-date period ended February 26, 2006, excluding joint ventures, were down 13% from the level achieved a year ago. The overall decline in orders resulted from the slowing of demand in some of our markets from the unsustainable pace of the past few years, a trend that we began to experience in the fourth quarter of last year. This slowing of sales activity is particularly evident in markets which have experienced significant price increases and investor-driven demand in recent years, such as California and Florida.

http://www.nypost.com/business/64323.htm
New York Post Online Edition: business
February 28, 2006 -- A sudden glut in unsold new homes is threatening to snuff out the blazing housing market that's been carrying the U.S. economy.

The Commerce Department said yesterday the backlog of unsold new homes in January reached the highest level ever of 528,000, with sales steadily sliding by as much as 5 percent.

Nearly half the new homes put up by builders aren't being sold as expected, the report shows.

At the current sales pace, there were enough new homes on the market to satisfy demand for the next 5.2 months, the fattest inventory glut since November 1996.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

P.S. это только мне кажется что в последнее время только одни негативные новости пошли?

Народ, вам удобнее чтобы я постил только ссылки или ссылки + маленькие выдержки как сейчас? Чтобы не засорять топик - пожелания можно слать в ЛС.

[redline]

P.S. это только мне кажется что в последнее время только одни негативные новости пошли?

Народ, вам удобнее чтобы я постил только ссылки или ссылки + маленькие выдержки как сейчас? Чтобы не засорять топик - пожелания можно слать в ЛС.

По-моему до тех пор пока в новостях будут использовать термины типа "slowdown" а не "crash" - новости можно считать позитивными . В новом формате читать новости гораздо удобнее - спасибо!

[ax3816]

По-моему до тех пор пока в новостях будут использовать термины типа "slowdown" а не "crash" - новости можно считать позитивными .

ну, можно это дело называть как хочешь - хоть "slowdown", хоть "crash", хоть "апельсин", хоть даже "мама-мыла-раму". Суть от этого не меняется, ЕСЛИ обращать внимаине на цифры и статистику А статистика, упрямая вещь И она показывает что... в общем, по ссылкам всё написано.

В новом формате читать новости гораздо удобнее - спасибо!

Ну, это не мне спасибо Благодарите Rem700 - это его идея была

[dimkax]

Суть от этого не меняется, ЕСЛИ обращать внимаине на цифры и статистику А статистика, упрямая вещь

А вот моя статистика: Калифорниа - [1 Day on market].

[ax3816]

А вот моя статистика: Калифорниа - [1 Day on market].

Так а никто ведь не говорит, что продаж совсем нет. Так, мелочь... всего лишь упали на 24% в январе

http://money.cnn.com/2006/02/28/news/ec ... /index.htm

[dima_ca]

Суть от этого не меняется, ЕСЛИ обращать внимаине на цифры и статистику А статистика, упрямая вещь

А вот моя статистика: Калифорниа - [1 Day on market].

продешевил?