WASHINGTON, April 7 (Reuters) - It would be harder for the Federal Reserve to deal with a spike in inflation than a softening of growth, a key Fed policy-maker said on Friday, suggesting the central bank may want to err on the side of higher interest rates.
Why Housing Is About to Go "Pop!"
Moderator: Komissar
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 02088.html
Regulators To Issue Mortgage Warning
As the real estate market slows, some mortgage lenders are trying to prop up profits by relaxing lending standards for certain types of loans, endangering borrowers and financial institutions, a top banking regulator said yesterday.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 00828.html
30-Year Mortgages Climb to 6.43%
Saturday, April 8, 2006; Page G04
Rates on 30-year mortgages rose this week to the highest level in 2 1/2 years as financial markets began to worry more about inflation.
Mortgage giant Freddie Mac reported Thursday that rates on 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.43 percent this week, up from 6.35 percent last week.
http://sacramento.bizjournals.com/sacra ... tml?page=1
Sacramento Business Journal: Sharp 1-Q drop in region's new-home sales - 2006-04-07
New-home sales were 57 percent lower in the first quarter of this year than the first three months of 2005, extending the trend of a cooler market that began last year.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. ... faces.html
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: The dreaded "D" word surfaces
The dreaded "D" word surfaces
No, I do not mean deflation, not yet anyway. I mean discounts. Builders have been offering free upgrades such as granite countertops, better cabinets, and landscaping. They have been also offering free closing costs, increased lot sizes, and low mortgage rates. One is even offering free cruises.
http://today.reuters.com/investing/fina ... TGAGES.XML
Stock Market News and Investment Information | Reuters.com
WASHINGTON, April 9 (Reuters) - Vicki Nious joined a nonprofit agency last year to help low-income Americans buy and fix up homes. Instead, with interest rates rising, she's seeing more clients struggling to pay their mortgage and hang onto their house.
"We've definitely seen an increase in delinquencies and even we have a few cases we may consider for foreclosure," said Nious, mortgage services manager for AHC Inc. in Arlington, Virginia. "Many families are having trouble because their adjustable rate mortgages are expiring and they need help."
Like a lot of Americans, many AHC clients got into the housing market in the last few years by taking out adjustable rate mortgages at extremely low "teaser" rates, sometimes half that of a traditional 30-year fixed mortgage.
Regulators To Issue Mortgage Warning
As the real estate market slows, some mortgage lenders are trying to prop up profits by relaxing lending standards for certain types of loans, endangering borrowers and financial institutions, a top banking regulator said yesterday.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 00828.html
30-Year Mortgages Climb to 6.43%
Saturday, April 8, 2006; Page G04
Rates on 30-year mortgages rose this week to the highest level in 2 1/2 years as financial markets began to worry more about inflation.
Mortgage giant Freddie Mac reported Thursday that rates on 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.43 percent this week, up from 6.35 percent last week.
http://sacramento.bizjournals.com/sacra ... tml?page=1
Sacramento Business Journal: Sharp 1-Q drop in region's new-home sales - 2006-04-07
New-home sales were 57 percent lower in the first quarter of this year than the first three months of 2005, extending the trend of a cooler market that began last year.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. ... faces.html
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: The dreaded "D" word surfaces
The dreaded "D" word surfaces
No, I do not mean deflation, not yet anyway. I mean discounts. Builders have been offering free upgrades such as granite countertops, better cabinets, and landscaping. They have been also offering free closing costs, increased lot sizes, and low mortgage rates. One is even offering free cruises.
http://today.reuters.com/investing/fina ... TGAGES.XML
Stock Market News and Investment Information | Reuters.com
WASHINGTON, April 9 (Reuters) - Vicki Nious joined a nonprofit agency last year to help low-income Americans buy and fix up homes. Instead, with interest rates rising, she's seeing more clients struggling to pay their mortgage and hang onto their house.
"We've definitely seen an increase in delinquencies and even we have a few cases we may consider for foreclosure," said Nious, mortgage services manager for AHC Inc. in Arlington, Virginia. "Many families are having trouble because their adjustable rate mortgages are expiring and they need help."
Like a lot of Americans, many AHC clients got into the housing market in the last few years by taking out adjustable rate mortgages at extremely low "teaser" rates, sometimes half that of a traditional 30-year fixed mortgage.
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http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060411/ap_ ... es_outlook
Realtors: Home Sales, Prices to Cool - Yahoo! News
WASHINGTON - The housing market will likely level out in 2006, as sales of existing and new homes are expected to cool in the coming quarters, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Realtors: Home Sales, Prices to Cool - Yahoo! News
WASHINGTON - The housing market will likely level out in 2006, as sales of existing and new homes are expected to cool in the coming quarters, according to the National Association of Realtors.
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http://realtytimes.com/rtcpages/2006041 ... rtgage.htm
Realty Times - Real Estate News and Advice
As interest rates rise, as homes get more expensive and as more and more buyers seek high-leverage, higher-risk mortgages, instead of tightening credit, lenders are taking steps to keep the easy money easy.
Federal regulators now fear that lenders are attempting to maintain profit levels by easing lending standards at a time when they should be tightening them.
The practices threaten borrowers with the potential for defaults on loans they couldn't really afford and, if too many borrowers default, lenders could also face collapse, according to John M. Reich, director of the Office of Thrift Supervision, speaking recently before the New York Bankers Association.
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/
Calculated Risk
Toll Bros CEO: Speculators Impacting Supply
Dow Jones reports: Toll Bros CEO: Housing Comparisons Difficult Over Last Year
Toll Brothers Inc. Chief Executive Robert Toll said comparisons in the housing market continue to be difficult over last year ...
...
As demand declined, Toll said speculators left the market.
"What's more you get the speculator putting their product back on the market - so you've got a little excess supply," Toll said.
How Speculation impacts supply:
A recent report by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that 39.9% of all homes nationwide bought in 2005 were purchased as second homes. NAR reported 12.2% were purchased as vacation homes and 27.7% for investments. This is clear evidence of speculation.
http://angrybear.blogspot.com/2005/04/h ... s-key.html
Angry Bear
The Bust
Housing "bubbles" typically do not "pop", rather prices deflate slowly in real terms, over several years. Historically real estate prices display strong persistence and are sticky downward. Sellers tend to want a price close to recent sales in their neighborhood, and buyers, sensing prices are declining, will wait for even lower prices.
This means real estate markets do not clear immediately, and what we usually observe is a drop in transaction volumes. That is my expectation for this year: stable prices (maybe declining slightly on the coasts) and declining volumes. Stable or lower prices will halt speculation and increase the supply. And if rates rise further, or lenders become more discerning, demand will also decrease. Either spells bust for the current bubble.
http://www.courierpostonline.com/apps/p ... 3/BUSINESS
CourierPostOnline - South Jersey's Web Site
SURVEY SAYS: Lenders predict real estate slide
uesday, April 11, 2006
Two-thirds of lenders nationwide believe a real estate bubble exists in the United States and half of them believe it has already begun to burst or will burst in the next six months, according to results of this quarter's Phoenix Management "Lending Climate in America" survey.
A significant 93 percent of lenders surveyed expect an anticipated housing correction to result in real estate prices declining 10 to 20 percent across the country.
Among the 92 lenders who participated in this quarter's survey, only 9 percent said they did not believe a housing bubble existed. When asked which area of the country was likely to be most affected by a housing correction, 30 percent of respondents named the Northeast, followed closely by 27 percent who predicted the West Coast. Fourteen percent named the Southeast.
http://www.investors.com/editorial/IBDA ... e=20060411
Investor's Business Daily: Speculators Start To Eye Stocks As Home Sales, Price Gains Slow
Softer real estate demand has spurred some investors to turn their attention back to stocks.
A recent TD Ameritrade survey asked several questions of investors, including "What is the best type of long-term investment?" — real estate or stocks. Those picking real estate peaked in July, with 48% of investors favoring housing vs. 32% for stocks. That came as many real estate stocks and home prices in many markets topped.
The following seven months showed a shift back to equities, with stocks edging past real estate as the preferred investment choice in February — 40% vs. 38%.
Along with declining housing activity and increased stock trading, the latest data reinforce the suspicion that aggressive investors are moving out of real estate and heading back into stocks.
Realty Times - Real Estate News and Advice
As interest rates rise, as homes get more expensive and as more and more buyers seek high-leverage, higher-risk mortgages, instead of tightening credit, lenders are taking steps to keep the easy money easy.
Federal regulators now fear that lenders are attempting to maintain profit levels by easing lending standards at a time when they should be tightening them.
The practices threaten borrowers with the potential for defaults on loans they couldn't really afford and, if too many borrowers default, lenders could also face collapse, according to John M. Reich, director of the Office of Thrift Supervision, speaking recently before the New York Bankers Association.
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/
Calculated Risk
Toll Bros CEO: Speculators Impacting Supply
Dow Jones reports: Toll Bros CEO: Housing Comparisons Difficult Over Last Year
Toll Brothers Inc. Chief Executive Robert Toll said comparisons in the housing market continue to be difficult over last year ...
...
As demand declined, Toll said speculators left the market.
"What's more you get the speculator putting their product back on the market - so you've got a little excess supply," Toll said.
How Speculation impacts supply:
A recent report by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that 39.9% of all homes nationwide bought in 2005 were purchased as second homes. NAR reported 12.2% were purchased as vacation homes and 27.7% for investments. This is clear evidence of speculation.
http://angrybear.blogspot.com/2005/04/h ... s-key.html
Angry Bear
The Bust
Housing "bubbles" typically do not "pop", rather prices deflate slowly in real terms, over several years. Historically real estate prices display strong persistence and are sticky downward. Sellers tend to want a price close to recent sales in their neighborhood, and buyers, sensing prices are declining, will wait for even lower prices.
This means real estate markets do not clear immediately, and what we usually observe is a drop in transaction volumes. That is my expectation for this year: stable prices (maybe declining slightly on the coasts) and declining volumes. Stable or lower prices will halt speculation and increase the supply. And if rates rise further, or lenders become more discerning, demand will also decrease. Either spells bust for the current bubble.
http://www.courierpostonline.com/apps/p ... 3/BUSINESS
CourierPostOnline - South Jersey's Web Site
SURVEY SAYS: Lenders predict real estate slide
uesday, April 11, 2006
Two-thirds of lenders nationwide believe a real estate bubble exists in the United States and half of them believe it has already begun to burst or will burst in the next six months, according to results of this quarter's Phoenix Management "Lending Climate in America" survey.
A significant 93 percent of lenders surveyed expect an anticipated housing correction to result in real estate prices declining 10 to 20 percent across the country.
Among the 92 lenders who participated in this quarter's survey, only 9 percent said they did not believe a housing bubble existed. When asked which area of the country was likely to be most affected by a housing correction, 30 percent of respondents named the Northeast, followed closely by 27 percent who predicted the West Coast. Fourteen percent named the Southeast.
http://www.investors.com/editorial/IBDA ... e=20060411
Investor's Business Daily: Speculators Start To Eye Stocks As Home Sales, Price Gains Slow
Softer real estate demand has spurred some investors to turn their attention back to stocks.
A recent TD Ameritrade survey asked several questions of investors, including "What is the best type of long-term investment?" — real estate or stocks. Those picking real estate peaked in July, with 48% of investors favoring housing vs. 32% for stocks. That came as many real estate stocks and home prices in many markets topped.
The following seven months showed a shift back to equities, with stocks edging past real estate as the preferred investment choice in February — 40% vs. 38%.
Along with declining housing activity and increased stock trading, the latest data reinforce the suspicion that aggressive investors are moving out of real estate and heading back into stocks.
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http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB1 ... DI3Wj.html
WSJ.com - Hot Homes Get Cold
MIAMI -- Todd Linsley, a 37-year-old investor, bought a three-bedroom house in Stuart, Fla., for about $318,000 in late 2005. His original plan was to quickly flip the property -- which is in a new housing development about 40 miles north of West Palm Beach -- by selling it for as high as $425,000. But when he saw that the market was turning, he decided to list the home for $379,900. It's been on the market since early January with no takers.
Mr. Linsley says home builders keep discounting unsold houses in the neighborhood -- sometimes axing as much as $100,000 off the original asking price. He says he can't afford to go that low. "If I got in a jam I would have to drop the price, but I am not at that point," he says.
So now he's renting his investment house out for $1,000 a month, while paying a $2,045 monthly mortgage and a $108 monthly homeowner's association fee. "My Plan B was always to rent it out. I am not going to lose my shirt," says Mr. Linsley, a salesman for a medical-products company.
...
Paul Zani, an investor, is trying to resell two converted units he purchased in Orlando. He bought one condo unit in November for $137,000 and had it listed for $185,000; he bought the other for $147,000 and it was listed for $195,000. But he's been unable to resell either one. "We will probably come down on the price," says Mr. Zani, who lives in Nashville, Tenn. Some pockets of the condo market may fare better than others.
....
Despite the current turmoil, some Floridians remain bullish, including Stuart Miller, the chief executive officer of Miami-based Lennar, one of the largest home builders in the U.S. But Mr. Morgan, the broker, says for him the market has slowed considerably. He wrote in an email late last week that "we went three days this week with not a single showing. That's incredible. I have 35 listings. We usually get 2-6 showings a day....I received more desperate calls from sellers than ever. One lady broke down into tears. Her husband bought two investment properties, and they are now going to lose their 'life savings' if they sell the homes in today's market."
WSJ.com - Hot Homes Get Cold
MIAMI -- Todd Linsley, a 37-year-old investor, bought a three-bedroom house in Stuart, Fla., for about $318,000 in late 2005. His original plan was to quickly flip the property -- which is in a new housing development about 40 miles north of West Palm Beach -- by selling it for as high as $425,000. But when he saw that the market was turning, he decided to list the home for $379,900. It's been on the market since early January with no takers.
Mr. Linsley says home builders keep discounting unsold houses in the neighborhood -- sometimes axing as much as $100,000 off the original asking price. He says he can't afford to go that low. "If I got in a jam I would have to drop the price, but I am not at that point," he says.
So now he's renting his investment house out for $1,000 a month, while paying a $2,045 monthly mortgage and a $108 monthly homeowner's association fee. "My Plan B was always to rent it out. I am not going to lose my shirt," says Mr. Linsley, a salesman for a medical-products company.
...
Paul Zani, an investor, is trying to resell two converted units he purchased in Orlando. He bought one condo unit in November for $137,000 and had it listed for $185,000; he bought the other for $147,000 and it was listed for $195,000. But he's been unable to resell either one. "We will probably come down on the price," says Mr. Zani, who lives in Nashville, Tenn. Some pockets of the condo market may fare better than others.
....
Despite the current turmoil, some Floridians remain bullish, including Stuart Miller, the chief executive officer of Miami-based Lennar, one of the largest home builders in the U.S. But Mr. Morgan, the broker, says for him the market has slowed considerably. He wrote in an email late last week that "we went three days this week with not a single showing. That's incredible. I have 35 listings. We usually get 2-6 showings a day....I received more desperate calls from sellers than ever. One lady broke down into tears. Her husband bought two investment properties, and they are now going to lose their 'life savings' if they sell the homes in today's market."
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Гринспэн проснулся...
http://yahoo.reuters.com/stocks/QuoteCo ... _SEO180136
Company News | Reuters.com
He said the market value of assets worldwide had been rising faster than nominal gross domestic product globally due to a decline in real long-term interest rates over the years and a significant fall in real equity premiums.
"A good part of this expansion is a direct function of the decline in real equity premiums," Greenspan said. "That cannot go on indefinitely."
He said asset prices would begin to fall, but did not predict when that would happen.
"I am reasonably certain that what we are looking at today is an abnormal situation," he said.
http://yahoo.reuters.com/stocks/QuoteCo ... _SEO180136
Company News | Reuters.com
He said the market value of assets worldwide had been rising faster than nominal gross domestic product globally due to a decline in real long-term interest rates over the years and a significant fall in real equity premiums.
"A good part of this expansion is a direct function of the decline in real equity premiums," Greenspan said. "That cannot go on indefinitely."
He said asset prices would begin to fall, but did not predict when that would happen.
"I am reasonably certain that what we are looking at today is an abnormal situation," he said.
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http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7148582/
Mortgage rates close in on 4-year high - Real Estate - MSNBC.com
Updated: 2:49 p.m. ET April 13, 2006
WASHINGTON - Rates on 30-year mortgages climbed this week to their highest point in nearly four years, a development that could put a further crimp in housing activity.
Freddie Mac, the mortgage company, reported Thursday that rates on 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.49 percent for the week ending April 13. That was up from 6.43 percent last week and was the highest since mid-July of 2002.
Some economists believe rates on 30-year mortgages could reach 7 percent by the end of this year.
There are signs that rising mortgage rates are slowing the housing market, which registered record-high sales for five years in a row.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12282926/
U.S. mortgage applications decreased last week - Real Estate - MSNBC.com
Updated: 8:23 a.m. ET April 12, 2006
NEW YORK - U.S. mortgage applications fell last week for the first time in three weeks, an industry trade group said on Wednesday, as a near four-year high in interest rates dissuaded consumers from taking out home loans.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity for the week to April 7 decreased 5.5 percent to 579.4 from the previous week's 612.8.
Borrowing costs on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, excluding fees, averaged 6.50 percent, up 0.01 percentage point from the previous week, its highest since the week ended June 14, 2002 when it reached 6.53 percent.
Mortgage rates close in on 4-year high - Real Estate - MSNBC.com
Updated: 2:49 p.m. ET April 13, 2006
WASHINGTON - Rates on 30-year mortgages climbed this week to their highest point in nearly four years, a development that could put a further crimp in housing activity.
Freddie Mac, the mortgage company, reported Thursday that rates on 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.49 percent for the week ending April 13. That was up from 6.43 percent last week and was the highest since mid-July of 2002.
Some economists believe rates on 30-year mortgages could reach 7 percent by the end of this year.
There are signs that rising mortgage rates are slowing the housing market, which registered record-high sales for five years in a row.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12282926/
U.S. mortgage applications decreased last week - Real Estate - MSNBC.com
Updated: 8:23 a.m. ET April 12, 2006
NEW YORK - U.S. mortgage applications fell last week for the first time in three weeks, an industry trade group said on Wednesday, as a near four-year high in interest rates dissuaded consumers from taking out home loans.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity for the week to April 7 decreased 5.5 percent to 579.4 from the previous week's 612.8.
Borrowing costs on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, excluding fees, averaged 6.50 percent, up 0.01 percentage point from the previous week, its highest since the week ended June 14, 2002 when it reached 6.53 percent.
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Real estate insiders go bearish in blogs
In mostly anonymous postings, agents are reporting big problems in the markets
http://money.cnn.com/2006/04/18/real_es ... /index.htm
In mostly anonymous postings, agents are reporting big problems in the markets
http://money.cnn.com/2006/04/18/real_es ... /index.htm
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<b>Doors Close for Real Estate Speculators</b>
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 01720.html
Браво, Вашингтон Пост!!!!
С нетерпением ждем таких статей про Сан Диего и Лос Анджелес!
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 01720.html
Браво, Вашингтон Пост!!!!
С нетерпением ждем таких статей про Сан Диего и Лос Анджелес!
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Andre_Y wrote:<b>Doors Close for Real Estate Speculators</b>
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 01720.html
Браво, Вашингтон Пост!!!!
С нетерпением ждем таких статей про Сан Диего и Лос Анджелес!
И сев. NJ
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http://www.startribune.com/417/story/367672.html
Home buyers firmly in driver's seat
Numbers for the Twin Cities area confirm what home sellers already knew: It's becoming a buyer's market.
The selling spree continues.
The number of houses placed on the market in the Twin Cities metro area last month smashed records, rising 23 percent compared with the same period last year, according to a report released Wednesday by the Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors.
http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspo ... lived.html
The Mess That Greenspan Made: She Had No Way of Knowing Who Lived Here
This came in the mail the other day. It was addressed to "Future Homeowner", which, while a correct characterization, does Ms. Hernandez little good unless she wants to move north at least a few hundred miles and wait at least a couple years.
http://www.contracostatimes.com/mld/cct ... 332404.htm
ContraCostaTimes.com | 04/13/2006 | State's housing market retreats
The housing market in California has fallen into a visible slump, and the downturn could erode economic expansion in fast-growing regions such as the East Bay, economists warned Wednesday.
Existing home sales have skidded, houses now languish on the market for longer periods, and the rate of home building has slowed, according to the report issued by Wells Fargo Bank.
Real estate agents in the East Bay said the market was returning to more normal conditions from a hot pace that could not be sustained indefinitely.
Nevertheless, the Wells Fargo economic study warned of a chill for real estate.
http://www.sanluisobispo.com/mld/sanlui ... 331821.htm
San Luis Obispo Tribune | 04/13/2006 | County housing market cooling
The sizzling Central Coast housing market may finally be cooling, say some local real estate experts.
Statewide, homes are staying on the market 35 percent longer than they were a year ago, according to the California Association of Realtors. In February 2005, houses took an average of 51⁄2 months to sell. A year later, homes are staying on the market an average of 71⁄2 months.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. ... enger.html
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Shoot the Messenger
I bought an $850,000 a year ago on a little less than a quarter acre of land and with barely 2000 sq ft. under air. I made the "wise" choice to purchase it with no money down! This home was just on the threshold of my affordability...even with the wife working. Oh did I mention I have an ARM mortgagte...so now my payments are going up up up! S@@@...we are paying more for the same house...but not building any more equity! This sucks! Then the wife comes home after just sending the daughter to the orthodontist to get her teeth fixed, and declares ..."Tom, did you see that the Klevelands just put their house up for sale?" "No, I din't, I thought they really loved the area"...so with a little digging, I find that they are asking $800,000 for their home...and it is just about the equivalent to ours. Then your mind races...what is going on? Then you realize 3 months latter that their house is still up for sale, with a neon lights above the realtor sign, that says REDUCED (to $750,000)...not only that, but there are now 20 other for sale signs up in your neighborhood...THAT IS WHEN THE SHOCKING REALITY SETS IN...you will never get that $850,000 out of your house, and all the interest you have been paying is just that...a fart in the wind...and sallys orthodontist bills are pilling up, and our credit card is maxed from all the new furnishings we decorated our $850K home with...not to mention that there are rumors at work, that the company is sending more jobs to India, to save a buck, and you panic. Now I am staring aimlessly into my newly adjusted mortgage bill thinking, "HOW THE F@@@ DID I GET MYSELF INTO THIS". So I will sell my useless home at a loss..upside down and all, move to a region with cheaper homes, maybe a "fixer upper" take a lower paying job with a commute and sell the sports car and the boat, so I can with a clear conscience look at little Sally with a mouth full of wires and crooked teeth and smile, all the while thinking, ok, now how the f@@@ am I going to pay for her college! I was one f@@@@@@@ idiot...I hope no one besides my wife ever finds out. This has just about destroyed my marriage. Oh, one more thing. Did I mention I bought another home in here as an investment flip that we closed on four months ago. I can’t sell it for what I paid. I can’t even find a renter. I haven’t had a showing in more than 2 weeks.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060410/clm053.html
Los Angeles Foreclosures Increase Dramatically in the First Quarter Of 2006, According to Default Research: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance
MT. PLEASANT, Pa., April 10 /PRNewswire/ -- The number of foreclosures in Los Angeles County increased by 63 percent in the first quarter of 2006 compared to 2005, according to Default Research (www.defaultresearch.com), the rapidly growing real estate research company for foreclosure properties.
"With rising interest rates, the economy slowing down in that part of California, and a quarter of L.A. residents working at jobs that do not pay a living wage, the significant increase in foreclosures is a very alarming trend in the largest county in the nation," said Serdar Bankaci, president and chief executive officer of Default Research, Inc.
Bankaci also noted that single family homes and duplexes were hit the hardest, increasing 77 percent and 88 percent respectively, underscoring the tough battle that the average L.A. homeowner faces to retain their property.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. ... under.html
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Subprime Lender Acoustic Goes Under
As of 4/14/2006 Acoustic Home Loans is no longer in business.
Hmmm. It seems the industry's first and only "Guaranteed Broker Contract" is no longer guaranteed. Acoustic was the 27th-largest nonprime wholesale originator in the nation.
Rest assured many more "guarantees" will be broken in the upcoming months.
http://sittingprettyfinancially.blogspo ... bling.html
Sitting Pretty: Gambling
Many readers only care about my gamble in Palm Springs and continue to ask for an update about the house that is for sale there. I haven’t written much because there hasn’t been anything to report. We have lowered our price twice… currently the house is listed for $629,000. At this point we would break-even or lose money. We’re all prepared for this scenario. Of course, it is disappointing but there aren’t any other options.
...
My learnings to date: real estate, like any investment, carries risk. If we couldn’t afford the risk then we would be in trouble, but this is why we did the project with four people. Worse case scenario… the house doesn’t sell (even at a loss) and we can’t get it rented… then we write a check each month and enjoy our weekends in Palm Springs... end of story.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ ... &cset=true
Payback looms on adjustable-rate mortgage spree | Chicago Tribune
Millions of cheap, teaser-rate mortgages that people took out a few years ago, when interest rates were at rock bottom, are about to become much more expensive.
More than $1 trillion in mortgage debt costing only 4 percent or so--rates locked in three years ago--is about to soar in price, to nearly 8 percent in some cases.
http://nitricacid.blogspot.com/2006/04/ ... tings.html
Links of Random Interest: San Francisco Home Listings Preliminary
As of April 13, 2006, there were over 27,000 homes listed for sale in the Bay Area, with 20,106 listed as "Active Listings" and 7,529 as "Pending Sales". In the following images, the pending sales are the red dots, and the active listings are white. Each dot represents one property (house, condo, land) offered for sale in the Bay Area.
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http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/Ban ... 148861.asp
MSN Money - The negative equity epidemic
All those ARMs and teaser rates are coming home to roost. 1 in 10 homeowners has no equity or is even 'upside down.'
Rhonda is in a panic.
The two-year introductory rate on her adjustable mortgage is about to expire and send her payments soaring. She thought she could refinance to a more-affordable loan, but the rates she's being quoted are just as high.
"So I then decided I would just sell the house and get out of it," Rhonda wrote in an e-mail. "WRONG! The houses in my area are selling for around $20,000 less than what I owe!"
http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0418/p09s02-coop.html
In the home-buying frenzy, renters could reap bargains | csmonitor.com
Rental property owners face extraordinarily high vacancies. Currently the national vacancy rate is just under 10 percent. To put this in context, the traditional dividing line between "tight" and "loose" rental markets is a 6 percent rate. In several large metropolitan areas, the rental vacancy rate is above 15 percent - not just older slow-growth industrial areas like Cleveland and St. Louis, but also rapidly growing areas such as Atlanta and Houston.
http://www.nahb.org/news_details.aspx?s ... ewsID=2382
National Association of Home Builders
April 17, 2006 - Rising mortgage rates, continued affordability issues and subsiding demand from investors/speculators are prompting single-family home builders to adjust their perspectives on the new-home market, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for April, released today. The HMI declined four points from a downwardly revised reading in the previous month to hit 50 for the latest report.
http://www.southcoasttoday.com/daily/04 ... 1local.htm
SouthCoastToday.com - Fears burden housing market - April 17, 2006
NEW BEDFORD — The way the housing market is headed, with prices flat and lending rates up, bankruptcy lawyers might want to put on another pot of coffee, because company is coming. Maybe lots of it.
Almost 30 percent of all of the adjustable-rate mortgages in this region will come up for adjustment this year or next, said Patrick J. Sullivan, marketing director of specialized lending for Sovereign Bank.
As it looks today, those mortgages will jump perhaps 2 percentage points, from about 4.5 percent to 6.2 percent or 6.5 percent, he said. For a $200,000 mortgage, that might mean about $4,000 a year in additional mortgage payments.
"That 2 percent adjustment could kill. Four grand a year out of pocket, that's a lot of money," he said.
http://www.realtytrac.com/pub/articles/ ... re.asp?a=b
Welcome to RealtyTrac
The number of U.S. properties in some stage of foreclosure is on the rise in 2006 as higher interest rates force more homeowners into default and softening housing prices give defaulted homeowners fewer options to avoid foreclosure.
Contrary to popular opinion, it’s not just run-down homes in poor neighborhoods that are vulnerable to foreclosure. The recent surge in creative home finance options such as interest-only and negative amortization loans have allowed buyers to stretch their finances to the breaking point so they can afford homes that previously were out of their price change. Any small change in personal income or spending — including increased monthly payments due higher interest rates on an adjustable rate mortgage — could nudge these homeowners into default and possibly foreclosure. And the higher a home’s price, the smaller the pool of potential buyers for that home, which means homeowners of high-end homes may have more trouble selling their property to avoid foreclosure.
http://money.cnn.com/2006/04/18/news/ec ... /index.htm
Housing starts, building permits miss forecasts - Apr. 18, 2006
Latest reading on home building shows bigger slowdown than expected as pace falls below 2 million; permits also weaken.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - Home builders hit the brakes in March, cutting the number of housing starts and new permits in the face of rising mortgage rates and a growing glut of new homes on the market.
The Census Bureau reported that housing starts slumped nearly 8 percent to an annual rate of 1.96 million in March from a revised 2.13 million pace in February. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast the rate would slip to 2.03 million last month.
It was the second-slowest pace of housing starts over the last 12 months, trailing only December.
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pi ... refer=home
Bloomberg.com: Top Worldwide
U.S. Housing Starts Fall 7.8% in March to 1.96 Million Rate
http://aolsvc.news.aol.com/business/art ... 5&cid=1712
AOL News - When to Sell an Investment Property In a Cooling Market for Real Estate
It's time to skip town.
As many real-estate markets soften, speculators are finding they can't flip their investment properties for a quick gain. That leaves them with a tough decision: Should they hang on and rent or should they bail out, possibly at a loss?
Here's a look at that agonizing choice -- and why selling your investment property is likely the best strategy.
http://www.mortgagefraudblog.com/
Mortgage Fraud Blog - Mortgage Fraud News for the Mortgage Banking Industry
http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/ar ... /604190401
New housing nosedives - 04/19/06 - The Detroit News
Slumping economy, ailing auto industry cut southeastern Michigan housing starts by 47 percent.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060419/us_ ... BHNlYwNmYw
Home loan demand down as rates hit new highs - Yahoo! News
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Mortgage applications fell for a second consecutive week, led by a decline in demand for home purchase loans, as interest rates reached new multiyear highs, an industry trade group said on Wednesday.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity for the week ended April 14 decreased 1.7 percent to 569.6 from the previous week's 579.4.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060418/ap_ ... biz_life_1
Selling One's Home Is Difficult Business - Yahoo! News
NEW YORK - Pete Montero first listed his Ann Arbor, Mich., nearly a year ago at $379,000. The 2,600-square-foot home didn't attr'act buyers so Montero dropped the price in $10,000 increments — he's now asking $329,900 — and he's even considered remodeling the kitchen.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060419/law012.html
Experian-Gallup Survey Shows Seven in Ten Consumers Expect a Housing Bubble to Burst in the U.S. Over the Next 12 Months: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance
Sixty Percent Say Housing Prices Will Rise Over the Next Year in Their Area; Only 11 Percent Expect a Decline
http://www.voiceofsandiego.org/site/app ... ct=2196515
Housing - Voice of San Diego
California's wealthy investors are choosing to invest less and less in real estate, a trend that local experts say should serve as a beacon to all real estate investors in the county.
In San Diego, financial advisors who work with some of the region's wealthiest people are advising their clients to sell their investment properties. After a monumental run-up in home prices, they say, their clients are weary of holding onto investments too long and repeating the past mistakes of the dot-com bubble.
http://news.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/artic ... 5/1071/BIZ
RGJ.com: USA Capital bankruptcy filing leaves investors stunned
LAS VEGAS -- Investors say they are stunned, angry and frustrated at Las Vegas-based USA Capital, a short-term mortgage lender that filed for bankruptcy protection last week.
The lender, with $950 million in assets, filed for bankruptcy court protection on April 13.
The company, with an office in Reno and Incline Village, raised investment funds to make short-term mortgage loans secured by real estate development and commercial properties. Investors were attracted by interest rates of 12 percent to 14 percent on their investments and by the relative security of having real estate for collateral.
It's the latest in a series of private lenders who have failed in Las Vegas, including Harley Harmon Mortgage, Interstate Mortgage Group and Global Express Capital.
"Unbelievable," investor Rich Maiorana, 55, who invested $50,000 in a USA Capital fund.
The bankruptcy filing "just makes them look to be terribly dishonest," Maiorana said.
Phyllis Resler, a widow and great-grandmother, works part time for a church to supplement her Social Security benefits. She has $56,000 invested with USA Capital.
"Help," she said, laughing nervously. "I can't earn and replace what I have at age 69. That will take a lifetime."
Robert Ulm, a retired airline pilot living in Georgia, said he invested $200,000 with USA Capital and feels betrayed.
"It's illegal. It's a fraud. It's a cheat. It's a scam. That's what I think," Ulm said.
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provid ... ID=4125219
MSN Money - Associated Press Business News: Mortgage Rates Highest in Nearly 4 Yrs.
WASHINGTON (AP) - Rates on 30-year mortgages marched up this week to their highest point in nearly four years, a factor that is taking some oomph out of the housing market.
Freddie Mac, the mortgage company, reported Thursday that for the week ending April 20, rates on 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.53 percent, up from 6.49 percent last week.
This week's rate was the highest since the week ending July 12, 2002, when 30-year mortgage rates stood at 6.54 percent.
MSN Money - The negative equity epidemic
All those ARMs and teaser rates are coming home to roost. 1 in 10 homeowners has no equity or is even 'upside down.'
Rhonda is in a panic.
The two-year introductory rate on her adjustable mortgage is about to expire and send her payments soaring. She thought she could refinance to a more-affordable loan, but the rates she's being quoted are just as high.
"So I then decided I would just sell the house and get out of it," Rhonda wrote in an e-mail. "WRONG! The houses in my area are selling for around $20,000 less than what I owe!"
http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0418/p09s02-coop.html
In the home-buying frenzy, renters could reap bargains | csmonitor.com
Rental property owners face extraordinarily high vacancies. Currently the national vacancy rate is just under 10 percent. To put this in context, the traditional dividing line between "tight" and "loose" rental markets is a 6 percent rate. In several large metropolitan areas, the rental vacancy rate is above 15 percent - not just older slow-growth industrial areas like Cleveland and St. Louis, but also rapidly growing areas such as Atlanta and Houston.
http://www.nahb.org/news_details.aspx?s ... ewsID=2382
National Association of Home Builders
April 17, 2006 - Rising mortgage rates, continued affordability issues and subsiding demand from investors/speculators are prompting single-family home builders to adjust their perspectives on the new-home market, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for April, released today. The HMI declined four points from a downwardly revised reading in the previous month to hit 50 for the latest report.
http://www.southcoasttoday.com/daily/04 ... 1local.htm
SouthCoastToday.com - Fears burden housing market - April 17, 2006
NEW BEDFORD — The way the housing market is headed, with prices flat and lending rates up, bankruptcy lawyers might want to put on another pot of coffee, because company is coming. Maybe lots of it.
Almost 30 percent of all of the adjustable-rate mortgages in this region will come up for adjustment this year or next, said Patrick J. Sullivan, marketing director of specialized lending for Sovereign Bank.
As it looks today, those mortgages will jump perhaps 2 percentage points, from about 4.5 percent to 6.2 percent or 6.5 percent, he said. For a $200,000 mortgage, that might mean about $4,000 a year in additional mortgage payments.
"That 2 percent adjustment could kill. Four grand a year out of pocket, that's a lot of money," he said.
http://www.realtytrac.com/pub/articles/ ... re.asp?a=b
Welcome to RealtyTrac
The number of U.S. properties in some stage of foreclosure is on the rise in 2006 as higher interest rates force more homeowners into default and softening housing prices give defaulted homeowners fewer options to avoid foreclosure.
Contrary to popular opinion, it’s not just run-down homes in poor neighborhoods that are vulnerable to foreclosure. The recent surge in creative home finance options such as interest-only and negative amortization loans have allowed buyers to stretch their finances to the breaking point so they can afford homes that previously were out of their price change. Any small change in personal income or spending — including increased monthly payments due higher interest rates on an adjustable rate mortgage — could nudge these homeowners into default and possibly foreclosure. And the higher a home’s price, the smaller the pool of potential buyers for that home, which means homeowners of high-end homes may have more trouble selling their property to avoid foreclosure.
http://money.cnn.com/2006/04/18/news/ec ... /index.htm
Housing starts, building permits miss forecasts - Apr. 18, 2006
Latest reading on home building shows bigger slowdown than expected as pace falls below 2 million; permits also weaken.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - Home builders hit the brakes in March, cutting the number of housing starts and new permits in the face of rising mortgage rates and a growing glut of new homes on the market.
The Census Bureau reported that housing starts slumped nearly 8 percent to an annual rate of 1.96 million in March from a revised 2.13 million pace in February. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast the rate would slip to 2.03 million last month.
It was the second-slowest pace of housing starts over the last 12 months, trailing only December.
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pi ... refer=home
Bloomberg.com: Top Worldwide
U.S. Housing Starts Fall 7.8% in March to 1.96 Million Rate
http://aolsvc.news.aol.com/business/art ... 5&cid=1712
AOL News - When to Sell an Investment Property In a Cooling Market for Real Estate
It's time to skip town.
As many real-estate markets soften, speculators are finding they can't flip their investment properties for a quick gain. That leaves them with a tough decision: Should they hang on and rent or should they bail out, possibly at a loss?
Here's a look at that agonizing choice -- and why selling your investment property is likely the best strategy.
http://www.mortgagefraudblog.com/
Mortgage Fraud Blog - Mortgage Fraud News for the Mortgage Banking Industry
http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/ar ... /604190401
New housing nosedives - 04/19/06 - The Detroit News
Slumping economy, ailing auto industry cut southeastern Michigan housing starts by 47 percent.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060419/us_ ... BHNlYwNmYw
Home loan demand down as rates hit new highs - Yahoo! News
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Mortgage applications fell for a second consecutive week, led by a decline in demand for home purchase loans, as interest rates reached new multiyear highs, an industry trade group said on Wednesday.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity for the week ended April 14 decreased 1.7 percent to 569.6 from the previous week's 579.4.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060418/ap_ ... biz_life_1
Selling One's Home Is Difficult Business - Yahoo! News
NEW YORK - Pete Montero first listed his Ann Arbor, Mich., nearly a year ago at $379,000. The 2,600-square-foot home didn't attr'act buyers so Montero dropped the price in $10,000 increments — he's now asking $329,900 — and he's even considered remodeling the kitchen.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060419/law012.html
Experian-Gallup Survey Shows Seven in Ten Consumers Expect a Housing Bubble to Burst in the U.S. Over the Next 12 Months: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance
Sixty Percent Say Housing Prices Will Rise Over the Next Year in Their Area; Only 11 Percent Expect a Decline
http://www.voiceofsandiego.org/site/app ... ct=2196515
Housing - Voice of San Diego
California's wealthy investors are choosing to invest less and less in real estate, a trend that local experts say should serve as a beacon to all real estate investors in the county.
In San Diego, financial advisors who work with some of the region's wealthiest people are advising their clients to sell their investment properties. After a monumental run-up in home prices, they say, their clients are weary of holding onto investments too long and repeating the past mistakes of the dot-com bubble.
http://news.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/artic ... 5/1071/BIZ
RGJ.com: USA Capital bankruptcy filing leaves investors stunned
LAS VEGAS -- Investors say they are stunned, angry and frustrated at Las Vegas-based USA Capital, a short-term mortgage lender that filed for bankruptcy protection last week.
The lender, with $950 million in assets, filed for bankruptcy court protection on April 13.
The company, with an office in Reno and Incline Village, raised investment funds to make short-term mortgage loans secured by real estate development and commercial properties. Investors were attracted by interest rates of 12 percent to 14 percent on their investments and by the relative security of having real estate for collateral.
It's the latest in a series of private lenders who have failed in Las Vegas, including Harley Harmon Mortgage, Interstate Mortgage Group and Global Express Capital.
"Unbelievable," investor Rich Maiorana, 55, who invested $50,000 in a USA Capital fund.
The bankruptcy filing "just makes them look to be terribly dishonest," Maiorana said.
Phyllis Resler, a widow and great-grandmother, works part time for a church to supplement her Social Security benefits. She has $56,000 invested with USA Capital.
"Help," she said, laughing nervously. "I can't earn and replace what I have at age 69. That will take a lifetime."
Robert Ulm, a retired airline pilot living in Georgia, said he invested $200,000 with USA Capital and feels betrayed.
"It's illegal. It's a fraud. It's a cheat. It's a scam. That's what I think," Ulm said.
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provid ... ID=4125219
MSN Money - Associated Press Business News: Mortgage Rates Highest in Nearly 4 Yrs.
WASHINGTON (AP) - Rates on 30-year mortgages marched up this week to their highest point in nearly four years, a factor that is taking some oomph out of the housing market.
Freddie Mac, the mortgage company, reported Thursday that for the week ending April 20, rates on 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.53 percent, up from 6.49 percent last week.
This week's rate was the highest since the week ending July 12, 2002, when 30-year mortgage rates stood at 6.54 percent.
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ax3816 wrote:Что-то я давненько уже не припоминаю upbeat статей, в основном попадается на глаза один негатив. Похоже что media повернула нос в другую сторону и уже смакует плачевные истории.
А вам попадаются upbeat статьи?
Статьи статьями, а жизнь показывает что рынок в неоторых местах катится в низ и это хорошо.Домик который мне нравится, новый с 317К до 245К уже опустился, а из 8 юнитов ни один еще не продан.
Бог создал людей разными, Линкольн дал людям свободу, а Кольт всех уравнял.
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Letter from a patrick.net reader to OC Register
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. ... sions.html
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Condo Reversions
Six communities with 1,571 units - three in Broward and three in Palm Beach County - have made the switch from condo conversion sales back to rentals.
Some are dubbing it "the great conversion reversion of 2006." It's a move to reposition rental communities, which were slated for condominium conversion sales, back to apartment rentals.
"It's an early-stage trend that will probably accelerate as the market slows even more," said Jack McCabe, CEO of McCabe Research & Development in Deerfield Beach.
http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0424/p17s02-cogn.html
Warning flags flutter on economy | csmonitor.com
Economists are reluctant to forecast recessions, especially since they have become less frequent in recent years. It is professionally damaging to wrongly predict such a slump.
Economists are less reluctant to warn of trouble ahead, such as a housing bubble bursting, trillions of dollars in loan-related financial packages coming unglued, or the dollar plunging as huge United States trade deficits continue.
In general, economists do modestly better at predicting the economy than simple mathematical projections of past economic trends do. But economists often get into trouble when they try to foretell financial downturns.
Perhaps that's why most economists are cheery about the health of the US economy.
Economists and policymakers at the US Federal Reserve also have a history of upbeat forecasting. They didn't see the last recession in 2000 and 2001 until about nine months after it started.
http://www.latimes.com/classified/reale ... full.story
They had a plan, then reality intruded - Los Angeles Times
Four friends thought they could 'flip' a house, but cost overruns, bad timing got in the way.
A group of friends who set out to buy, fix up and "flip" a Palm Springs tract house haven't found the riches they were seeking.
But the four Newport Beach residents — all experienced remodelers — learned some lessons about themselves, about working with others and about real estate investing.
Among other things, they learned:
• Not everyone enjoys remodeling by committee.
• The real estate market is fickle and can shift in just a few months.
• High-end upgrades don't necessarily reap big profits.
• Timing is everything, and it's harder to sell during the holidays.
• The surest way to make a profit in speculative remodeling is by getting spectacular bargains on fixer-uppers
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P149596.asp
MSN Money - The housing bubble has popped
The housing bubble has popped
Reports of falling sales and investors stuck with properties they can't sell are just the beginning. Property owners should worry; so should their lenders.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. ... sions.html
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Condo Reversions
Six communities with 1,571 units - three in Broward and three in Palm Beach County - have made the switch from condo conversion sales back to rentals.
Some are dubbing it "the great conversion reversion of 2006." It's a move to reposition rental communities, which were slated for condominium conversion sales, back to apartment rentals.
"It's an early-stage trend that will probably accelerate as the market slows even more," said Jack McCabe, CEO of McCabe Research & Development in Deerfield Beach.
http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0424/p17s02-cogn.html
Warning flags flutter on economy | csmonitor.com
Economists are reluctant to forecast recessions, especially since they have become less frequent in recent years. It is professionally damaging to wrongly predict such a slump.
Economists are less reluctant to warn of trouble ahead, such as a housing bubble bursting, trillions of dollars in loan-related financial packages coming unglued, or the dollar plunging as huge United States trade deficits continue.
In general, economists do modestly better at predicting the economy than simple mathematical projections of past economic trends do. But economists often get into trouble when they try to foretell financial downturns.
Perhaps that's why most economists are cheery about the health of the US economy.
Economists and policymakers at the US Federal Reserve also have a history of upbeat forecasting. They didn't see the last recession in 2000 and 2001 until about nine months after it started.
http://www.latimes.com/classified/reale ... full.story
They had a plan, then reality intruded - Los Angeles Times
Four friends thought they could 'flip' a house, but cost overruns, bad timing got in the way.
A group of friends who set out to buy, fix up and "flip" a Palm Springs tract house haven't found the riches they were seeking.
But the four Newport Beach residents — all experienced remodelers — learned some lessons about themselves, about working with others and about real estate investing.
Among other things, they learned:
• Not everyone enjoys remodeling by committee.
• The real estate market is fickle and can shift in just a few months.
• High-end upgrades don't necessarily reap big profits.
• Timing is everything, and it's harder to sell during the holidays.
• The surest way to make a profit in speculative remodeling is by getting spectacular bargains on fixer-uppers
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P149596.asp
MSN Money - The housing bubble has popped
The housing bubble has popped
Reports of falling sales and investors stuck with properties they can't sell are just the beginning. Property owners should worry; so should their lenders.
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- Location: Tallinn, Estonia ->VA->OR->Los Angeles, CA
Luxe properties go for bargain at Tesoro auction
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/treasureco ... _0423.html
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/treasureco ... _0423.html
The gavel slammed down almost as soon as the bidding had started. In minutes. As fast as the words could tumble out of the mouth of the auctioneer, whose voice buzzed like a bumblebee: Sold for $165,000.
"We're in the basement, folks," the auctioneer said. "What a bargain."