Why Housing Is About to Go "Pop!"

[Mic]

Статьи статьями, а жизнь показывает что рынок в неоторых местах катится вниз...

Это не про Сиэтл. Здесь все прет.
А может это просто я от жизни отстал...

[andrey_a1]

Статьи статьями, а жизнь показывает что рынок в неоторых местах катится вниз...

Это не про Сиэтл. Здесь все прет.
А может это просто я от жизни отстал...

"Инвесторы" перекочевали теперь в Сиэтл и NM?

[Mic]

Статьи статьями, а жизнь показывает что рынок в неоторых местах катится вниз...

Это не про Сиэтл. Здесь все прет.
А может это просто я от жизни отстал...

"Инвесторы" перекочевали теперь в Сиэтл и NM?

Да какие инвесторы?! Здесь простые люди дома купить не могут - мало очень на рынке.

[andrey_a1]

Статьи статьями, а жизнь показывает что рынок в неоторых местах катится вниз...

Это не про Сиэтл. Здесь все прет.
А может это просто я от жизни отстал...

"Инвесторы" перекочевали теперь в Сиэтл и NM?

Да какие инвесторы?! Здесь простые люди дома купить не могут - мало очень на рынке.

Вот именно так оно и происходило.
Приходят "инвесторы", покупают даже неглядя на дом, дома уходят еще
до выхода на рынок или в первый же день. Простые люди занимают очередь
и дежурят ночами под офисами билдеров. Потом билдеры запрещают покупку
домов инвесторами, дома разыгрывают в лотерею, апартменты конвертируют
в кондо. Потом... сейчас посмотрю... 378/496/718 пропертей на 3 зип-кода
вокруг меня. Могу добавить четвертый, которым Миша интересовался - 460.
Строительство в этих зип-кодах почти не ведется, разве что в третьем и
в основном в ценовом диапазоне 700K+.

[ax3816]

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/S ... DE8A0D7%7D
UBS lowers builder forecasts as housing market slows - MarketWatch

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- UBS cut its earnings projections for home builders Monday, with several companies reducing their home-delivery targets as the steam continues to come out of the U.S. housing market.

"The long-anticipated housing slowdown appears to be finally upon us," wrote analyst Margaret Whelan in a research note, citing new-home sales down 21% from their July high, while new-mortgage applications are off 23% from their peak in June.


http://www.tcpalm.com/tcp/real_estate/a ... 46,00.html
TCPalm: Real Estate

Rising interest rates, ownership costs put some homeowners in danger

A total of 139 homes in Martin, St. Lucie and Indian River counties entered some form of foreclosure in March, according to a March report from RealtyTrac. The research firm supplies data to Web sites such as AOL, MSN and Yahoo.

Florida had the third highest number of foreclosures of any state in the nation that month, with 9,283 properties entering some stage of foreclosure. The figure was 1.5 times the national average.

"Some people took out $60,000 home equity loans as a speculative buyer to buy a condo," Geberer said. "The market has for condos has softened and people are willing to just walk away, even if they lose money." Nationwide, 101,597 properties entered some stage of foreclosure in March, a 63 percent increase from March 2005. Meaning, for every 1,138 household, one home is in foreclosure.


http://www.sltrib.com/ci_3741214
Salt Lake Tribune - Salt Lake Tribune Home Page

Desperate Realtors a big hit in Utah
Gimmicks galore: The crowded industry lures clients with free TVs, moving services and more

Utah's real estate market is booming, but in many areas, there are simply too many Realtors for most to make much of a living.

The Salt Lake Board of Realtors, for example, had about 5,700 Realtor members just one year ago. And today, it has nearly 7,000 - 200 of whom joined in March alone.

Realtor growth:
As the Wasatch Front's residential real estate market has grown, so has the number of Realtors. More agents, however, means more competition.
(members of the Salt Lake Board of Realtors)
Year Realtors
1970 1,186
1980 3,641
1990 2,228
2000 4,049
Today nearly 7,000

Realtor Income:
A number make as little as several thousand dollars of year. A handful make six-figure incomes. The majority aren't making enough to be their family's sole source of income.

Client perks:
Discounted commissions, TV sets, moving-van rental and full-service moving

Home sales
* In the first quarter of 2006, 3,149 homes sold in Salt Lake County, up from 2,929 in the same quarter in 2005 and 2,425 in 2004.
* The median selling price in the county was $200,747 in the first quarter, up from $172,000 in 2005 and $157,000 in 2004.

For sale by owner
In 2005, Utahns listed 676 properties on www.forsalebyowner.com, one of many Web sites devoted to people who want to sell their homes on their own, up from 104 in 2001. The numbers reflect only a tiny fraction of people who sell their homes without a Realtor; many use other Web sites or advertise in print, or simply put a for-sale sign in front of their home.


http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/bus ... 11929.html
Chron.com | Realtors seek edge in tight market

As home sales market tightens, realty agents look for an edge
Tactics include free landscaping, alarm service and other incentives


http://www.safehaven.com/article-5006.htm
Safe Haven | Not Your Father's Housing Market

Not Your Father's Housing Market
by Peter Schiff


This week, as mortgage rates rose to their highest level in more than four years, real estate insiders reassured the public that higher interest rates would not hurt the housing market. Their claims were based on the fact that even though rates had risen, they never-the-less remain low in historic terms. While this may be true, it is completely irrelevant to today's historically unprecedented real estate market.

Although current mortgage rates are still historically low, underlying mortgage balances certainly are not. Several years of artificially low interest rates, combined with lax lending standards and the get-rich-quick mindset, have resulted in homeowners assuming mortgage balances unprecedented in history, both in absolute terms and relative to their incomes. For most, such balances have been sustainable only as direct result of extremely low interest rates, and in many cases temporary teaser rates. Today's stratospheric real estate prices cannot be maintained without these supports. As rock-bottom rates fade away, housing prices must return to earth.

For example, while historically a typical family may have been able to afford a 6.5% mortgage on a normal $250,000 mortgage, the same is certainly not true when applied to today's completely abnormal $500,000 balances. The fact that rates may still be low in historic terms is irrelevant if mortgage balances are now twice their historic norms.


http://home.businesswire.com/portal/sit ... ewsLang=en
ForeclosureS.com: Mortgage Defaults on the Rise in West and Southwest

SACRAMENTO, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--April 24, 2006--ForeclosureS.com, a California based real estate investment advisory firm and nationwide publisher of foreclosure property listings, reported today that foreclosure activity in the first quarter of 2006 increased significantly from the fourth quarter of 2005 in several western and southwestern housing markets.

"The biggest increases were in major urban centers around the West," said ForeclosureS.com president Alexis McGee. "For example, Los Angeles County recorded 6,314 pre-foreclosure filings and foreclosures through March, up from 4,911 in Q4 of 2005, while in San Diego the numbers jumped from 1,565 in Q4 of 2005 to 2,241 in Q1 of 2006."

She went on to say that such increases were coincident with cooling markets in previously overheated areas, and with the steady rise in interest rates.

She added that rampant speculation in some markets, along with a slowdown in price appreciation would lead to an increase in delinquencies and foreclosures.

"In Las Vegas, this appears to be already happening. Foreclosure activity jumped to 3,246 in Q1 of 2006 from 1,480 in Q4 of 2005. Speculators who came late to the party are being washed out of the market."

She pointed to widespread concern over the number of interest only and high negative amortization loans that had been issued by lenders in recent years as homebuyers sought to qualify for ever more expensive homes during the coastal markets' price boom of the last half decade.


http://www.oftwominds.com/blogapr06/inflation.html
charles hugh smith-The Housing - Inflation Connection

One little-understood result of the housing bubble is its massive distortion of the Consumer Price Index, i.e. the rate of inflation. Why is this important? Let's start with an example.


Никто не желает прикупить домик во Франции?

http://www.frenchentree-property.com/22 ... n-project-
town house renovation project, Charente 16, Poitou-Charentes, FrenchEntrée-Property
http://www.frenchentree-property.com/23 ... gnac-laval
village house magnac laval, Haute-Vienne 87, Limousin, FrenchEntrée-Property

ну и остальные можно посмотреть здесь http://www.frenchentree.com/french-prop ... es-france/
French property for sale in France from FrenchEntr�e.com

[airman]

Статьи статьями, а жизнь показывает что рынок в неоторых местах катится в низ и это хорошо.Домик который мне нравится, новый с 317К до 245К уже опустился, а из 8 юнитов ни один еще не продан.

А что, в Чикаге падают цены? Хорошо. А здесь - ни фига.

[Tachikoma]

Что-то я давненько уже не припоминаю upbeat статей, в основном попадается на глаза один негатив. Похоже что media повернула нос в другую сторону и уже смакует плачевные истории.

Однако...

http://money.cnn.com/2006/04/26/news/ec ... tm?cnn=yes
New home sales soar on price cuts
March gain of 13.8% the biggest in 13 years, showing surprising strength in housing market, but that was partly driven by builders cutting prices.
http://money.cnn.com/2006/04/26/news/ec ... tm?cnn=yes


http://money.cnn.com/2006/04/25/news/ec ... /index.htm
Surprisingly, existing home sales up
Sales unexpectedly rose in March, but growth probably unsustainable, trade group says.

[Tachikoma]

On the positive note


http://www.boston.com/realestate/news/a ... s_in_mass/
Housing slowdown deepens in Mass.
Single-family prices, sales slip in March

"The housing market in Massachusetts ''simply isn't as strong as it is in other states," said Patrick Newport, an economist for Lexington research firm Global Insight."

[Погремушкин]

Этот топик пора закывать и открывать аналагичный с таким же названием + цифра 2 на конце. А то я его не мог сегодня загрузить минет 40 - таймауты на серверк при конекте к базе. Все-таки 7500 записей это не шутка Модераторы, как Вам моя идея? Облегчим жизнь серваку?

[Mic]

А то я его не мог сегодня загрузить минет 40 - таймауты на серверк при конекте к базе

Я извиняюсь, чего ты не мог загрузить?

[Andre_Y]

Всю землю свезли во Флориду?

http://www.newscoast.com/apps/pbcs.dll/ ... /604260676

"At that pace we have a <b>400-year supply</b> of lots to sell, assuming no new listings," Hofer said.
...
He is now seeing the early signs of what he describes as "distress selling," where owners who already have shaved 10 to 20 percent off their asking price are now looking at offers 10 to 20 percent below that reduced level.

[genka8]

Этот топик пора закывать и открывать аналагичный с таким же названием + цифра 2 на конце. А то я его не мог сегодня загрузить минет 40 - таймауты на серверк при конекте к базе. Все-таки 7500 записей это не шутка Модераторы, как Вам моя идея? Облегчим жизнь серваку?

Вроде бы договорились дотянуть до 300 страниц, а потом открывать новую тему. Было бы неплохо провести небольшой конкурс на самое красивое название.

[ax3816]

Этот топик пора закывать и открывать аналагичный с таким же названием + цифра 2 на конце. А то я его не мог сегодня загрузить минет 40 - таймауты на серверк при конекте к базе. Все-таки 7500 записей это не шутка Модераторы, как Вам моя идея? Облегчим жизнь серваку?

Вроде бы договорились дотянуть до 300 страниц, а потом открывать новую тему. Было бы неплохо провести небольшой конкурс на самое красивое название.

Да, было такое дело. 1 мая будет юбилей - 2 года топику (осталось всего 4 дня! может потерпите? ). Мы в этот день с Коммисаром собирались закрыть этот и открыть новый. We feel your pain, потерпите до 1 мая, а? Может как раз к этому дню и дотянем до 300 страниц?

По поводу названия - я бы оставил текущее + " - 2" - народ ведь к нему привык.

[ax3816]

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pi ... IdFtlPYMbc
Bloomberg.com: Top Worldwide

Shares of utilities led the selloff on speculation the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates. Consumer confidence rose to the highest in four years and sales of existing homes unexpectedly increased.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 01341.html
Developer Hopes To Get Mileage From BMW Offer

But hold your horsepower. Developers of the 202-unit complex aren't actually giving away the $38,000-and-up sports car or its $32,000-and-up four-door cousin. Buyers of two- or three-bedroom units get a free two-year car lease, according to a sales representative who said she was not authorized to comment publicly.


http://www.voiceofsandiego.org/site/app ... ct=2247557
Housing - Voice of San Diego

Home buyers in San Diego had 19,238 homes to choose from yesterday. And for a brief time over the weekend, San Diego had more homes listed for sale than ever before.

On Saturday, real estate information service ZIP Realty reported that the region's previous inventory record of 19,250, set in the midst of the real estate industry's last downturn in July 1995, had been surpassed.

It's just another day in the San Diego real estate circus.

Inventory levels have been creeping up since the beginning of the year, according to Bubble Markets Inventory Tracking, a Web site that tracks ZIP Realty's figures. On Jan. 1, there were 13,916 homes up for grabs. That number rocketed up by about 100 homes a day throughout January and has been rising at a steady rate through early spring to reach its current level.


http://www.builderonline.com/industry-n ... eID=288843
Adjustable Rates Catching Up

With a current average of about 6.5 percent, long-term fixed-rate mortgage loans remain historically low. But many who entered into adjustable-rate mortgages in recent years, when short-term rates fell as low as 3 percent, are starting to see payments skyrocket.

As the Federal Reserve continues to raise its key borrowing rate to combat inflationary pressures, homeowners with adjustable rates are likely to see their monthly payments increase -- if they haven't already.

"Depending on what type of loan you have, your rates can go up 4 (percent) or 5 percent at a time," said Branden Hansen, senior vice president of mortgage lending at Ogden-based Bank of Utah. "It's almost a mortgage crisis waiting to happen."


http://www.oag.state.ny.us/press/2006/a ... 5a_06.html
EIGHT INDICTED IN MASSIVE MORTGAGE FRAUD RING

New York State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer and New York State Banking Superintendent Diana L. Taylor today announced the indictments of eight individuals charged with Enterprise Corruption and other felonies in connection with a multi-million dollar residential mortgage fraud scheme. Attorney General Spitzer also announced the filing of a civil forfeiture action seeking the recovery of more than $8 million from the defendants.


http://www.tcpalm.com/tcp/real_estate/a ... 39,00.html
TCPalm: Real Estate

JENSEN BEACH — James Staunton never expected to slash $55,000 from the asking price of his four-bedroom Jensen Beach home.

"I knew it was high when I listed it for $630,000," Staunton said from his new residence outside Birmingham, Ala. "We dropped it to $615,000 and then to $575,000. Now it's under contract."


http://www.mysanantonio.com/business/st ... 1a133.html
MySA.com: Business

Local mortgage brokers have a warning for people already struggling to make their adjustable-rate mortgage payments: Get out of them now.

Adjustable-rate mortgages normally start at a lower rate than the traditional 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, and are periodically adjusted to reflect current interest rates — and there are hundreds of different types.

[Geva]

We feel your pain, потерпите до 1 мая, а? Может как раз к этому дню и дотянем до 300 страниц?

Это запросто. Предлагаю объявить перекличку писателей и читателей по случаю годовщины. Всем доложить локальную деревенскую новость. У меня вот инвентори понизилась.

[Погремушкин]

А то я его не мог сегодня загрузить минет 40 - таймауты на серверк при конекте к базе

Я извиняюсь, чего ты не мог загрузить?

Ну очепятался, ну бывает. О чем думал о том и писал Главное все поняли и поддержали идею.

[genka8]

Geva, хорошая идея!
У нас на Восточном фронте без особых перемен. Инвентория растет, по сравнению с самой низкой точкой прошлой зимой увеличилась в 3.5 раза. Тем не менее цены не падают, похоже что в некоторых сегментах рынка даже наоборот. Торговля все же идет, дома продаются, особенно таунхаузы и "недорогие" синглы. За время бубля цены поднялись в два раза с копейками.

[Кирпич]

Geva, хорошая идея!
У нас на Восточном фронте без особых перемен. Инвентория растет, по сравнению с самой низкой точкой прошлой зимой увеличилась в 3.5 раза. Тем не менее цены не падают, похоже что в некоторых сегментах рынка даже наоборот. Торговля все же идет, дома продаются, особенно таунхаузы и "недорогие" синглы. За время бубля цены поднялись в два раза с копейками.

+1

[NYgal]

Неужели в МА цены стали лучше?
может таки и решиться на домик в Кейп Коде (мечтательно так)
За 250K в удобном месте уже можно думать.

[stoli]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 01341.html
Developer Hopes To Get Mileage From BMW Offer

But hold your horsepower. Developers of the 202-unit complex aren't actually giving away the $38,000-and-up sports car or its $32,000-and-up four-door cousin. Buyers of two- or three-bedroom units get a free two-year car lease, according to a sales representative who said she was not authorized to comment publicly.

Ну, а раз всего-лишь лиз, значит не о чем беспокоиться
Вот, кстати, эти товарищи:
http://washingtondc.craigslist.org/rfs/154807633.html

На самом деле я даже призадумался. С одной стороны это однозначно звучит как Pop, особенно по сравнению с тем, что было.
< С другой, 2BR в Fairfax, если оно более-менее приличное, за under 300k - я бы не сказал, что оно так уж overpriced. По крайней мере, никто из такого особенно не priced out. > -- my bad, 2BR, похоже от 350, что таки "pop":
http://washingtondc.craigslist.org/rfs/154926418.html
*Prices are subject to change. (!! )

По поводу топика - может к 300 страницам/первому мая можно будет просто убрать "is about to"?

[genka8]

+1

Соседи

[BOBAH]

Бостон: цены потихоньку снижаются. На некоторые дома - весьма существенно (100К и больше). Изредка случаются продажи.

[BOBAH]

Фотошоп?

[Nwaylock]

По поводу названия - я бы оставил текущее + " - 2" - народ ведь к нему привык.

Голосую за. И еще считаю, что автор топика должен давать ему название.

[Komissar]

Nwaylock, а как насчет отпраздновать 2-х летие топика покупкой собственной primary residence?

Кто-то, помниться, говорил, что ее от покупки удерживают bidding wars, так вот они (войны) уже кирдыкнулись.