Why Housing Is About to Go "Pop!"

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Nwaylock
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Post by Nwaylock »

Komissar wrote:Nwaylock, а как насчет отпраздновать 2-х летие топика покупкой собственной primary residence? :mrgreen:

Кто-то, помниться, говорил, что ее от покупки удерживают bidding wars, так вот они (войны) уже кирдыкнулись.


А я вам сейчас расскажу. В самом деле, мы поснимали годик, как и планировали переждать этот маразм с риал естейтом, ну и надумали было сьезжать куда-нибудь поближе к осени, уже начала я ездить с риелтором дома смотреть. Ну и разговорились мы с соседом напротив. Он оказывается тоже сдает свой дом по причине развода с женой, какая-то там у них финансовая заваруха в связи с этим. Домом он владеет 17 лет. Мы решили сначала просто пойти посмотреть, но как узнали сколько он за него хочет, как посмотрели на размер комнат и на ухоженную кухню, как увидели дополнительных пол-ванной, камин, центральный кондиционер и крытое патио, которого мне с ребенком ужасно не хватало, то даже не стали ломаться. Притом секьюрити депозита и контракта от нас никто не стребовал. Вобщем теперь переносим свои вещи через дорогу. Первого мая как раз новоселье. Вот странно, рентовочная проперть меня впечатлила и я хочу в ней жить, а то что подается не впечатляет, и я почти нигде не хочу жить, ну разве что в милионном доме, но и в нем бы я себя чувствовала бы не очень хорошо. Да, там и бассейн имеется, но в нерабочем состоянии, правда с готовым уже компрессором. Интересно, может себе еще и бассейн организовать...
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ax3816
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Post by ax3816 »

Nwaylock wrote:
ax3816 wrote:По поводу названия - я бы оставил текущее + " - 2" - народ ведь к нему привык.


Голосую за. И еще считаю, что автор топика должен давать ему название.


На самом деле - я думаю что название топика уже принципиальное значение не имеет. Здесь мы уже давно мирно обсуждаем не только обзор прессы но и даже поздравляем новоиспечённых владельцев домов :-) Просто как мне кажется, народ уже привык к названию топика и знает что там происходит. Поэтому не вижу смысла в смене (за исключением " - 2").

К стати, как мне кажется - сегодня топик просто летает! 2-3 секунды и страница открылась. Что случилось? Админ проиндексировал базу данных?
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dima_ca
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Post by dima_ca »

BOBAH wrote:Бостон: цены потихоньку снижаются. На некоторые дома - весьма существенно (100К и больше). Изредка случаются продажи.

ВОВАН, а в процентах это сколько будет?
Безапелляционность - признак глупости.
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ax3816
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http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/S ... 0E7F86C%7D
Housing slowing in most regions, Fed says - MarketWatch

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Home sales and construction are slowing in most regions of the nation, according to anecdotal accounts reported by the 12 Federal Reserve banks on Wednesday in the Beige Book.

"Most districts report cooling and moderation in their residential real estate markets," the Beige Book said. "In general, year-on-year price appreciation seems to be lower than in quarters past, with [Fed banks in] San Francisco, Cleveland, Kansas City, Richmond, New York, and Boston all reporting more modest price growth in residential sales."




http://www.oftwominds.com/blogapr06/foreclosures.html
charles hugh smith-Foreclosures and Financial Ruin: How Bad Will It Get?

As stories of rising foreclosures become commonplace, one question comes to the fore: how bad will it get? A good place to start looking for answers is the government agencies tasked with safeguarding both depositors and lenders: the well-known guarantor of bank deposits, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), and one of the most obscure agencies within the Federal Government, the U.S. Treasury's Office of Thrift Supervision (OTS).

Just to give you an idea of these agencies' research, consider this report from the FDIC: Scenarios for the Next U.S. Recession. Here's a very interesting chart from the report:

Image

The FDIC staff reckons 10% of consumers will experience a "recession" (a polite term, apparently, for losing your home and/or suffering complete financial ruin). But as the Post article notes, a rising wind of foreclosures generates its own downdrafts.

That rather obvious feedback loop has ominous overtones, so the FDIC staff set out to prove all was well with a report entitled U.S. Home Prices: Does Bust Always Follow Boom? The FDIC, predictably, concluded that busts were uncommon; but their chart reveals an unmistakably unprecedented housing bubble has formed in the past five years:

Image




http://www.boston.com/business/articles ... s_in_mass/
Housing slowdown deepens in Mass. - The Boston Globe

Single-family home sales and prices in Massachusetts fell 1.5 percent in March, capping a first quarter in which sales slowed dramatically from the previous year, according to a housing report released yesterday.

''Inventory is at record highs, so buyers are taking their time," said David Wluka, president of the Massachusetts Association of Realtors. ''They can pick among several houses so they don't feel the pressure."



http://www.rismedia.com/index.php/artic ... 14241/1/1/
Foreclosures Soar 63 Percent over Last Year

RISMEDIA, April 19, 2006—RealtyTrac(TM) (www.realtytrac.com), the leading online marketplace for foreclosure properties, today released its March 2006 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report, which shows 101,597 properties nationwide entered some stage of foreclosure in March, a 13 percent decrease from the previous month but a 63 percent increase from March 2005. The report shows a March national foreclosure rate of one new foreclosure for every 1,138 U.S. households.



http://www.palmbeachpost.com/business/c ... _0426.html
Condo construction halted; lender files for bankruptcy

When a Las Vegas lender plunked down money from retirees, investors and even a medical research firm's pension fund to finance construction of a West Palm Beach high-rise condo, everyone gambled that red-hot Florida real estate was a sure thing.

Low-income residents of the apartment complex moved, heavy construction equipment rolled in, millions of dollars were borrowed and dozens of investors saw double-digit returns on investments.

Now, all bets are off.

Lender USA Commercial Mortgage Co. and its related companies — better known as USA Capital — filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in Nevada on April 14. The filing follows a Securities and Exchange Commission investigation of how the company and its affiliates financed construction projects.

"Up until last week, we had no inkling that anything was wrong," said Virgil Birgen of Nevada, who, with his wife, invested $150,000 to build Sail Club at Clear Lake.

About 200 people from across the country gave Nevada-based USA Capital or a sister company money to fund the four-tower, 590-unit luxury high-rise on Executive Center Drive.


http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. ... s-nar.html
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: FAR vs NAR


http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060426/bs_ ... 42606_dc_1
Finance: Your house as a nest egg - Yahoo! News

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Do you think your house is your retirement nest egg? Think again, say some financial advisers.

Many, if not most, homeowners do expect to retire "on the house" according to the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College.

But at the same time they are reducing their own equity by borrowing against their homes for other expenses. They may be counting on inflated home values that could fall by the time they are ready to sell and move. They may be counting on a resource they never really want to sell.

In other words, they may not be being very realistic.


http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/ ... 7618.story
Number of unsold homes South Florida balloons over 2005 levels: South Florida Sun-Sentinel

A deluge of homes for sale is hampering South Florida's housing market, causing sales to slow considerably and prices to retreat from last fall's record high.

Sales of existing homes in March fell 32 percent in Broward County compared with March 2005, the Florida Association of Realtors said Tuesday. The median price was $368,100, down slightly from the beginning of the year, and up just 11 percent from last March.

With November's $391,100 peak a distant memory, some analysts expect year-over-year median-price declines -- unheard of in the recent boom years -- during the next few months.
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BOBAH
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Post by BOBAH »

dima_ca wrote:
BOBAH wrote:Бостон: цены потихоньку снижаются. На некоторые дома - весьма существенно (100К и больше). Изредка случаются продажи.

ВОВАН, а в процентах это сколько будет?


Один из примеров 599К -> 489К (last asking price, т.е. на сколько реально был оффер я не знаю)
Другой пример - максимальная цена которую я видел на этот дом была 715К. Сейчас 629К. На рынке 175 дней. До сих пор не продан. Начальная цена возможно была больше, т.к. ZipRealty только недавно добавили возможность отслеживать цены.
Но грубо в среднем из того что я видел цена снижается на 50К про начальной цене около 600К.
Еще наблюдение - практически все дома которые меня потенциально интересуют уже прошли как минимум одно снижение цены (на 10К минимум).
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ax3816
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Post by ax3816 »

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060427/mortgage_rates.html?.v=2
30-Year Mortgage Rates Rise for 5th Week: Financial News - Yahoo! FinanceRates on 30-Year Mortgages Rise for 5th Straight Week to Highest Level in Nearly 4 Years

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Rates on 30-year mortgages rose for the fifth consecutive week, hitting their highest level in nearly four years, a nationwide survey of rates reported Thursday.

Mortgage giant Freddie Mac said rates on 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.58 percent this week, up from 6.53 percent last week.

The new rate was the highest since 30-mortgages stood at 6.63 percent the week of June 20, 2002.

The rise in mortgage rates was attributed to last week's surge in oil prices, which saw crude oil futures hit a record of $75.17 last Friday, and signs this week of stronger economic growth. Both of those developments raised worries about rising inflationary pressures.

However, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke opened the door to taking a pause in the Fed's nearly two-year long campaign of raising interest rates.
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dima_ca
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Post by dima_ca »

BOBAH wrote:...
Один из примеров 599К -> 489К (last asking price, т.е. на сколько реально был оффер я не знаю)
Другой пример - максимальная цена которую я видел на этот дом была 715К. Сейчас 629К. На рынке 175 дней. До сих пор не продан. Начальная цена возможно была больше, т.к. ZipRealty только недавно добавили возможность отслеживать цены.
Но грубо в среднем из того что я видел цена снижается на 50К про начальной цене около 600К.
...

да, сурово. Похоже начинается...
Безапелляционность - признак глупости.
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ax3816
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Post by ax3816 »

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/busi ... rmits.html
SignOnSanDiego.com > News > Business -- County building permits fall 41%

Housing output on pace to be lowest in 10 years

San Diego County builders took out 41 percent fewer housing permits in the first three months of the year compared with the same period last year, putting the area on track to have the lowest output of new housing in 10 years, the Construction Industry Research Board reported yesterday.

The Burbank-based organization said 2,836 homes – 1,434 single-family and 1,402 multifamily – were authorized from January through March, compared with 4,818 in the same period last year.

The valuation was placed at $683.9 million, down from $977.2 million last year.



http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. ... ndard.html
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: New Gold Standard

blah-blah-blah...



http://www.palmbeachpost.com/business/c ... using.html
National real-estate expert says 2006 will be tough for PBC

The housing market's chief cheerleader has a surprisingly stark message for Florida Realtors: 2006 is going to be a tough year.

The region's real estate economy must recover from a hangover wrought by a spasm of speculation and easy money, David Lereah, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, told Realtors at a West Palm Beach hotel today.

"We're in a cleansing mode right now," Lereah told about 400 people. "It's gonna hurt."

While Lereah compared the housing boom's excesses to the stock market bubble of 2000, he doesn't foresee a Nasdaq-like crash for home prices.

"Is this a bad year? Yes. Your numbers will be down," Lereah said. "Are you going to bust? No."

Lereah called the slowdown healthy: "Prices got a little too high. We got ahead of ourselves. We needed to catch our breath."


http://www.bankrate.com/brm/news/mortga ... 0427a1.asp
50-year mortgage debuts in California (Page 1 of 2)

Рекоммендую прочитать статью полностью. Тяжело сделать выдержку.



http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12495804/
New home sales see biggest gain in 13 years - Real Estate - MSNBC.com

But median home price declines, suggesting housing boom is slowing

WASHINGTON - Sales of new homes soared in March by the largest amount in 13 years, reflecting a rebound from bad weather in February. But the median price of the homes sold last month actually declined, providing evidence that the nation’s five-year housing boom is slowing.



http://www.newratings.com/analyst_news/ ... 60681.html
US housing market to slowdown | newratings.com

NEW YORK, April 27 (newratings.com) – Analysts at ING Financial Markets say that the surge in US new home sales in March does not change the expectation of a slowdown in the housing market.

In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that new home sales rose by 13.8% on a month-over-month basis in March to an annualised rate of 1.21 million. The analysts express their concern, however, regarding the outlook for the US housing market, given the price and supply data from the new and existing home sales reports. The number of unsold new homes hit a new record high last month, ING Financial Markets points out. Although the supply of unsold homes fell to 5.5 months, the level is still very high, according to the analysts. ING Financial Markets adds that the supply situation has forced potential sellers to reduce prices. The median new home prices fell 2.2% in March, marking the highest drop since January 2003, the analysts report.

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