Одинаковый wrote:Митяй wrote:http://angrybear.blogspot.com/2005/12/budgetary-effects-of-bush-tax-cuts.html
The best estimate of the supply-side effects of the tax cuts that I've seen is from the Joint Committee on Taxation, which is the Congress's group of tax experts that provide revenue estimates of all pending legislation. In 2003 the Republican Congress directed the JCT to explicitly estimate the supply-side growth and revenue effects of their tax cuts - in other words, to use "dynamic scoring" to gauge the net impact of the tax cuts on revenue. The JCT convened a blue-ribbon panel of macroeconomists (including Alan Auerbach, David Bradford, Martin Feldstein, and Greg Mankiw) to help them develop their estimates.
What were their results? The JCT used several different macroeconomic models, and in December 2003 they published their conclusion that the supply-side effects of the tax cuts would increase real GDP by a total of 0.2%-0.3% over five years. Over ten years the effects on economic growth would be zero, or slightly negative. Such an impact on the economy is so small as to be indistinguishable from statistical noise.
This supply-side 'boost' to the economy would indeed increase government revenues somewhat, however, by about 5% to perhaps as high as 25% of the initial cost of the tax cuts. But there's no estimate that even approaches 100%, which is to say that there's no possibility that tax revenues were higher in 2005 than they would have been without the tax cuts.
И вот это персонально вас касается, Одинаковый :
One may like tax cuts for personal reasons, or for ideological reasons. But please let's not pretend any longer that the economic recovery, or the improvement in the budget deficit in 2005 (which will almost certainly prove to be very temporary), are due to the Bush tax cuts. There's simply no evidence whatsoever to support those claims, and substantial evidence against them.
Ну что: кто то по быстрому соорудил модель и все теперь должны им молиться? Где гарантия что их модель все учитывает? Думаю что есть и другие модели.
Поэтому прежде чем спорить с непонятно какой моделью, вы лучше мне обьясните каким образом <ГДП> сначала растет , а потом каким то непонятным образом замедляется.
А про то что мне персонально, так даже не знаю что сказать. Во первых я нигде не утверждал что хороший 2005 год это заслуга Буша. Во вторых, у кого то есть доказательства но они не говорят какие. Но убедительные. С ними не поспоришь. Ну и никакой личной выгоды от моей писанины тут я не получу как бы ни старался. Не корысти ради, а токмо ради благополучия страны. Которая, как вы правильно заметили 200 лет процветала. Только не благодаря партиям, а благодаря приверженностью этих партий к капиталистической рыночной системе.
"
blue ribbon" is a term used to describe something of high quality.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue-ribbon
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David Bradford (* January 8, 1939 in Cambridge (Massachusetts); † February 22, 2005 in Philadelphia) was a prominent american economist and professor of economics and public affairs in the Woodrow Wilson School at Princeton University.
After his graduation from Amherst College in 1960, Bradford studied at MIT and Harvard (M.S., Applied Mathematics, 1962). In 1966 he earned his doctorate in economics from Stanford University. He was awarded the degree of Doctor of Humane Letters by Amherst College in 1985. From 1991 to 1993, he served as a member of the the President's Council of Economic Advisors (George H. W. Bush). He had previously served as Deputy Assistant Secretary for Tax Policy in the U.S. Department of the Treasury (1975-1976).
Bradford's research focused on public sector economics. He was a noted authority on tax policy and taxation
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Martin Stuart "Marty" Feldstein (born November 25, 1939 in New York City) is an American economist. He is currently the George F. Baker Professor of Economics at Harvard University, and the president and CEO of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). From 1982 to 1984, Feldstein served as chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers and as chief economic advisor to President Ronald Reagan (where his deficit hawk views clashed with Reagan administration economic policies).
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Nicholas Gregory "Greg" Mankiw (born February 3, 1958) is an American macroeconomist. From 2003 to 2005, Mankiw was the chairman of President Bush's Council of Economic Advisors.
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After receiving his Ph.D. in economics,
Alan Auerbach served as an assistant, then associate professor, of economics at Harvard University, and as a professor of law and economics at the University of Pennsylvania. He has served as a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research and as the Deputy Chief of Staff on the U.S. Joint Committee on Taxation.
He joined Boalt in 1994 and holds a joint appointment in the Department of Economics. Auerbach was elected to the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in 1999.
In addition to teaching, Auerbach is director of the Robert D. Burch Center for Tax Policy and Public Finance, a collaboration between the law school and the Department of Economics
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Вы мне, Одинаковый, очень напоминаете одного персонажа, который был не согласен ни с Энгельсом, ни с Каутским. Уровень аргументации у вас с ним примерно одинаков.
А пристыдишь их - и сальцо найдется, и горилочка...
Только не "демократы тратят" а "Рейган тратил" Они с него русуют.
Именно это я и хотел сказать. Терпеть Буша 8 лет, а после него ещё как минимум 4 года его прoдолжателя? Как написано на бампере у моего соседа: "2008 the end of an error"
Безотказный аргумент. Работает в независимости от предмета спора. 
