http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm ... _idx=22763
FYI
"First, the dollar has not enjoyed anything like the kind of “post-war bounce” that we’ve seen to some extent on Wall Street. Quite the contrary; the broad U.S. dollar index is threatening to break below its previous lows, a development which would no doubt invite more “piling on” by hedge funds and assorted other investors. This bearish attitude is based on many factors: record Treasury borrowing, burgeoning external debts to the rest of the world, an economic outlook that is not exactly rosy, the heightened enmity between the U.S. and much of the rest of the world over our foreign policy and, last but not least, what could be the beginning of a more concerted international “boycott” of the dollar. ..."
"Second—and a development that is truly extraordinary—currency traders have in recent days been giving their strongest signals yet that they now believe there shall be no return to previous glory days for the greenback. Ever since the great bull market for the dollar began in 1995, it was routine for currency traders to borrow currencies both weak and cheap (such as the Japanese yen) and invest them elsewhere in anticipation of both relative currency strength and higher interest rates, allowing this “carry trade” to generate profits. The dollar was clearly the depository and beneficiary of this, helping to explain how the dollar itself became a momentum-created bubble over several years’ time.
Now, of all things, we’re seeing reports of traders borrowing dollars and investing them in safer and higher-yielding currencies. Not only the euro is benefiting from this; higher-yielding (and more commodity-dependent) currencies such as the Canadian and Australian dollars are getting some action as well. The significance of this sea change in the attitude of the currency markets cannot be overstated and, though this very different treatment of the U.S. dollar will be inviting even more volatility in its value down the road, it nevertheless shows the growing conviction that the buck’s long term trend has been decided upon by those who matter most.
A weaker U.S. dollar—which in the end will do more harm than good, no matter how much you hear about how wonderful it will be for some multinationals who might temporarily be able to export more—will ultimately be inflationary. It could cause financial turmoil world-wide. That will be a bonus for gold, on top of the many reasons already existing. "
С января, когда он был в раёне "all time low" ~62 цента поднялся на 10% - такого с ним никогда еще не было.
