Yvsobol wrote: ↑12 Mar 2020 05:03
Я так понимаю он не попадает под исключения: граждане и грин кардовцы и еще там шо то типа гардиан детей граждан. То есть его не пустят скорее всего.
Кроме того, как я понял сейчас определят букавльно пару тройку аеропортов со специальным оборудованием через которые можно вьезжать в США из за границы.
Короче надо ждать разьяснений. Думаю завтра все будет в подробностях.
Так у папы даже грин карты нет, он въезжает по иммиграционной визе и при въезде должны прислать грин карт по почте.
Так вроде пустят если папа из Беларуси через Москву полетит. Поменяла ему уже билет на такой.
Yvsobol wrote: ↑12 Mar 2020 04:40
Шо то я не понял. Щас на Фоксе на ТВ показали список госдепа стран с баном. России там нет...
А что насчёт Беларуси? У меня тут у папы был запланирован приезд.
Вроде нет
The ban also does not apply to all of Europe but to nations in the Schengen zone: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, The Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland.
А откуда этот список? Есть ли он на каком-то официальном сайте? На CDC сайте ничего нового нет вообще.
Yvsobol wrote: ↑12 Mar 2020 04:40
Шо то я не понял. Щас на Фоксе на ТВ показали список госдепа стран с баном. России там нет...
А что насчёт Беларуси? У меня тут у папы был запланирован приезд.
Вроде нет
The ban also does not apply to all of Europe but to nations in the Schengen zone: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, The Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland.
А откуда этот список? Есть ли он на каком-то официальном сайте? На CDC сайте ничего нового нет вообще.
Yvsobol wrote: ↑12 Mar 2020 04:40
Шо то я не понял. Щас на Фоксе на ТВ показали список госдепа стран с баном. России там нет...
А что насчёт Беларуси? У меня тут у папы был запланирован приезд.
Вроде нет
The ban also does not apply to all of Europe but to nations in the Schengen zone: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, The Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland.
А откуда этот список? Есть ли он на каком-то официальном сайте? На CDC сайте ничего нового нет вообще.
Из новостей - презедент спич толкал
Я смотрела его речь, он там не называл стран, просто сказал Европа.
Krys-Krys wrote: ↑12 Mar 2020 04:53
А что насчёт Беларуси? У меня тут у папы был запланирован приезд.
Вроде нет
The ban also does not apply to all of Europe but to nations in the Schengen zone: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, The Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland.
А откуда этот список? Есть ли он на каком-то официальном сайте? На CDC сайте ничего нового нет вообще.
Из новостей - презедент спич толкал
Я смотрела его речь, он там не называл стран, просто сказал Европа.
Yvsobol wrote: ↑12 Mar 2020 03:34
НХЛ завтар вон собирает большой хурал. Имхую шо сезон тоже закроют..
Шо ваще делать то останется? Спорта нет, границы закрыты... бухать короче только..
+1.. закупил сегодня ящик в Trader Joe's по 9.99..
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Yvsobol wrote: ↑12 Mar 2020 03:34
НХЛ завтар вон собирает большой хурал. Имхую шо сезон тоже закроют..
Шо ваще делать то останется? Спорта нет, границы закрыты... бухать короче только..
+1.. закупил сегодня ящик в Trader Joe's по 9.99..
Похоже что вирус уже везде и все эти меры с "изоляцией" в век глобальной интеграции и путешествий как мёртвому припарки. Джин давно выбрался из бутылки
Американский актер Том Хэнкс сообщил, что он и его супруга Рита Уилсон заразились коронавирусом.
Хэнкс на своей странице в Twitter рассказал, что, находясь в Австралии, они почувствовали слабость и простуду, а также «боль в теле».
«Чтобы все сделать правильно, как и нужно сейчас, нас проверили на коронавирус, и результат оказался положительным», – рассказал актер.
Он добавил, что они с супругой будут находиться под наблюдением медиков и будут изолированы, чтобы не подвергать опасности окружающих.
Том Хэнкс сыграл в известных фильмах «Большой», «Форрест Гамп», «Спасти рядового Райана», «Изгой», «Чудо на Гудзоне».
По данным австралийского телеканала SBS, 63-летний Том Хэнкс с супругой прибыл в Австралию для участия в съемках нового фильма австралийского кинорежиссера База Лурмана об Элвисе Пресли, передает ТАСС.
В заявлении киностудии Warner Bros. говорится, что компания «тесно сотрудничает с австралийскими учреждениями здравоохранения, чтобы найти и установить связь со всеми, кто мог контактировать» с Хэнксом.
В провинции Хубэй за сутки зафиксировано однозначное число новых подтвержденных случаев заболевания COVID-19 /более подробно/
2020-03-12 11:21:56丨Russian.News.Cn
Ухань, 12 марта /Синьхуа/ -- Центральнокитайская провинция Хубэй сообщила о 8 новых подтвержденных случаях заболевания новой коронавирусной пневмонией COVID-19 в среду. Об этом сообщил в четверг провинциальный Комитет по делам здравоохранения.
Все новые подтвержденные случаи заболевания были зафиксированы в городе Ухань, административном центре пров. Хубэй, эпицентре вспышки коронавирусной инфекции.
Пров. Хубэй также сообщила о 10 новых случаев с летальным исходом за среду, семь из них были зафиксированы в Ухане.
Согласно последнему отчету, общее число подтвержденных случаев заражения коронавирусной инфекцией в этой наиболее пострадавшей от вспышки COVID-19 провинции достигло 67 781.
По состоянию на среду, за исключением города Ухань в остальных 16 городах и округах Хубэя уже семь дней подряд не было зафиксировано ни одного нового подтвержденного случая заболевания
M. Ridcully wrote: ↑12 Mar 2020 06:42
Буду ездить в офис нарочно, там чихать, кашлять, и со всеми за руки здороваться.
Наложат штраф, а могут начать и садить в обезьнник, как в Италии
Нет, а Америке это немножко не так работает. Просто вечером все эти милые люди, с которыми вы днём поручкались, устроят себе праздник с вами в качестве почетного гостя.
[Moderated]
Schneider first began experiencing flu-like symptoms on February 25, three days after going to a party that was later identified as the place where at least five other people also got infected.
"I woke up and I was feeling tired, but it was nothing more than what you normally feel when you have to get up and go to work, and I had been very busy the previous weekend," she told AFP in an interview Wednesday.
By midday, however, she felt a headache coming on, along with a fever and body aches. She decided to leave the office of the biotechnology company where she works as a marketing manager, and went home.
After waking up from a nap, Schneider found she had a high temperature, which peaked at 103 degrees Fahrenheit that night (39.4 Celsius).
"And at that point, I started to shiver uncontrollably, and I was getting the chills and getting tingling in my extremities, so that was a little concerning," she said.
She turned to over-the-counter flu medications to treat the symptoms and called a friend to be on standby in case she needed to be taken to an emergency room -- but the fever began to recede in the coming days.
Because she didn't have the most common symptoms like a cough or shortness of breath, "I thought, okay, well that's definitely why I don't have coronavirus," said Schneider.
She had gotten a flu shot but assumed her illness was a different strain. A visit to the doctor would only result in her being asked to go home, rest and drink plenty of fluids.
Several of these people went to their doctors, where they were found to be negative for the flu, but they were not offered coronavirus tests because they too were not coughing or having breathing trouble.
Knowing that she would also likely be turned down for the test, she decided to enroll in a research program called the Seattle Flu Study, hoping it might provide an answer. The team behind the study sent her a nasal swab kit, which she mailed back and waited several more days.
"I finally got a phone call from one of the research coordinators on Saturday (March 7), telling me that 'You have tested positive for COVID-19,'" she said.
"I was a little bit pleasantly surprised, because I thought it was a little bit cool," Schneider admitted, laughing, though her mother cried when she told her.
By this time, her symptoms had already subsided, and she was told by local health authorities to remain at home for at least seven days after the onset of symptoms or 72 hours after they subsided.
It's now been a week since she's felt better. She has started going out for errands but is still avoiding large gatherings and continuing to work from home.
Schneider said she hoped her example, which will probably be typical of the high majority of cases, could comfort others.
Разрешаю исправлять мои ошибки (но учить жизни уже поздно)...
email which was received and forwarded by someone who wants to remain anonymous at Stanford (I did not add or delete anything, read at you discretion)
==============
Date: March 11, 2020 at 18:29:53 EDT
Subject: Latest on COVID-19 from UCSF's top infection disease researchers
With -- help I was able to arrange a discussion yesterday on COVID-19 with USCF’s top researchers in infectious disease. Here are the notes. I bolded some of the more notable comments from the researchers.
UC San Francisco is either the #1 or #2 hospital in California depending on which survey you read. It is the 4th largest medical research center in the US, based on research grants.
————
University of California, San Francisco BioHub Panel on COVID-19
March 10, 2020
Panelists
Joe DeRisi: UCSF’s top infectious disease researcher. Co-president of ChanZuckerberg BioHub (a JV involving UCSF / Berkeley / Stanford). Co-inventor of the chip used in SARS epidemic.
Emily Crawford: COVID task force director. Focused on diagnostics
Cristina Tato: Rapid Response Director. Immunologist.
Patrick Ayescue: Leading outbreak response and surveillance. Epidemiologist.
Chaz Langelier: UCSF Infectious Disease doc
What’s below are essentially direct quotes from the panelists. I bracketed the few things that are not quotes.
Top takeaways
At this point, we are past containment. Containment is basically futile. Our containment efforts won’t reduce the number who get infected in the US.
Now we’re just trying to slow the spread, to help healthcare providers deal with the demand peak. In other words, the goal of containment is to "flatten the curve", to lower the peak of the surge of demand that will hit healthcare providers. And to buy time, in hopes a drug can be developed.
How many in the community already have the virus? No one knows.
We are moving from containment to care.
We in the US are currently where at where Italy was a week ago. We see nothing to say we will be substantially different.
40-70% of the US population will be infected over the next 12-18 months. After that level you can start to get herd immunity. Unlike flu this is entirely novel to humans, so there is no latent immunity in the global population.
[We used their numbers to work out a guesstimate of deaths— indicating about 1.5 million Americans may die. The panelists did not disagree with our estimate. This compares to seasonal flu’s average of 50K Americans per year. Assume 50% of US population, that’s 160M people infected. With 1% mortality rate that's 1.6M Americans die over the next 12-18 months.]
The fatality rate is in the range of 10X flu.
This assumes no drug is found effective and made available.
The death rate varies hugely by age. Over age 80 the mortality rate could be 10-15%. [See chart by age Signe found online, attached at bottom.]
Don’t know whether COVID-19 is seasonal but if is and subsides over the summer, it is likely to roar back in fall as the 1918 flu did
I can only tell you two things definitively. Definitively it’s going to get worse before it gets better. And we'll be dealing with this for the next year at least. Our lives are going to look different for the next year.
What should we do now? What are you doing for your family?
Appears one can be infectious before being symptomatic. We don’t know how infectious before symptomatic, but know that highest level of virus prevalence coincides with symptoms. We currently think folks are infectious 2 days before through 14 days after onset of symptoms (T-2 to T+14 onset).
How long does the virus last?
On surfaces, best guess is 4-20 hours depending on surface type (maybe a few days) but still no consensus on this
The virus is very susceptible to common anti-bacterial cleaning agents: bleach, hydrogen peroxide, alcohol-based.
Avoid concerts, movies, crowded places.
We have cancelled business travel.
Do the basic hygiene, eg hand washing and avoiding touching face.
Stockpile your critical prescription medications. Many pharma supply chains run through China. Pharma companies usually hold 2-3 months of raw materials, so may run out given the disruption in China’s manufacturing.
Pneumonia shot might be helpful. Not preventative of COVID-19, but reduces your chance of being weakened, which makes COVID-19 more dangerous.
Get a flu shot next fall. Not preventative of COVID-19, but reduces your chance of being weakened, which makes COVID-19 more dangerous.
We would say “Anyone over 60 stay at home unless it’s critical”. CDC toyed with idea of saying anyone over 60 not travel on commercial airlines.
We at UCSF are moving our “at-risk” parents back from nursing homes, etc. to their own homes. Then are not letting them out of the house. The other members of the family are washing hands the moment they come in.
Three routes of infection
Hand to mouth / face
Aerosol transmission
Fecal oral route
What if someone is sick?
If someone gets sick, have them stay home and socially isolate. There is very little you can do at a hospital that you couldn’t do at home. Most cases are mild. But if they are old or have lung or cardio-vascular problems, read on.
If someone gets quite sick who is old (70+) or with lung or cardio-vascular problems, take them to the ER.
There is no accepted treatment for COVID-19. The hospital will give supportive care (eg IV fluids, oxygen) to help you stay alive while your body fights the disease. ie to prevent sepsis.
If someone gets sick who is high risk (eg is both old and has lung/cardio-vascular problems), you can try to get them enrolled for “compassionate use" of Remdesivir, a drug that is in clinical trial at San Francisco General and UCSF, and in China. Need to find a doc there in order to ask to enroll. Remdesivir is an anti-viral from Gilead that showed effectiveness against MERS in primates and is being tried against COVID-19. If the trials succeed it might be available for next winter as production scales up far faster for drugs than for vaccines. [More I found online.]
Why is the fatality rate much higher for older adults?
Your immune system declines past age 50
Fatality rate tracks closely with “co-morbidity”, ie the presence of other conditions that compromise the patient’s hearth, especially respiratory or cardio-vascular illness. These conditions are higher in older adults.
Risk of pneumonia is higher in older adults.
What about testing to know if someone has COVID-19?
Bottom line, there is not enough testing capacity to be broadly useful. Here’s why.
Currently, there is no way to determine what a person has other than a PCR test. No other test can yet distinguish "COVID-19 from flu or from the other dozen respiratory bugs that are circulating”.
A Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) test can detect COVID-19’s RNA. However they still don’t have confidence in the test’s specificity, ie they don’t know the rate of false negatives.
The PCR test requires kits with reagents and requires clinical labs to process the kits.
While the kits are becoming available, the lab capacity is not growing.
The leading clinical lab firms, Quest and Labcore have capacity to process 1000 kits per day. For the nation.
Expanding processing capacity takes “time, space, and equipment.” And certification. ie it won’t happen soon.
UCSF and UCBerkeley have donated their research labs to process kits. But each has capacity to process only 20-40 kits per day. And are not clinically certified.
Novel test methods are on the horizon, but not here now and won’t be at any scale to be useful for the present danger.
How well is society preparing for the impact?
Local hospitals are adding capacity as we speak. UCSF’s Parnassus campus has erected “triage tents” in a parking lot. They have converted a ward to “negative pressure” which is needed to contain the virus. They are considering re-opening the shuttered Mt Zion facility.
If COVID-19 affected children then we would be seeing mass departures of families from cities. But thankfully now we know that kids are not affected.
School closures are one the biggest societal impacts. We need to be thoughtful before we close schools, especially elementary schools because of the knock-on effects. If elementary kids are not in school then some hospital staff can’t come to work, which decreases hospital capacity at a time of surging demand for hospital services.
Public Health systems are prepared to deal with short-term outbreaks that last for weeks, like an outbreak of meningitis. They do not have the capacity to sustain for outbreaks that last for months. Other solutions will have to be found.
What will we do to handle behavior changes that can last for months?
Many employees will need to make accommodations for elderly parents and those with underlying conditions and immune-suppressed.
Kids home due to school closures
[Dr. DeRisi had to leave the meeting for a call with the governor’s office. When he returned we asked what the call covered.] The epidemiological models the state is using to track and trigger action. The state is planning at what point they will take certain actions. ie what will trigger an order to cease any gatherings of over 1000 people.
Where do you find reliable news?
The John Hopkins Center for Health Security site. Which posts daily updates. The site says you can sign up to receive a daily newsletter on COVID-19 by email. [I tried and the page times out due to high demand. After three more tries I was successful in registering for the newsletter.]
The New York Times is good on scientific accuracy.
Observations on China
Unlike during SARS, China’s scientists are publishing openly and accurately on COVID-19.
While China’s early reports on incidence were clearly low, that seems to trace to their data management systems being overwhelmed, not to any bad intent.
Wuhan has 4.3 beds per thousand while US has 2.8 beds per thousand. Wuhan built 2 additional hospitals in 2 weeks. Even so, most patients were sent to gymnasiums to sleep on cots.
Early on no one had info on COVID-19. So China reacted in a way unique modern history, except in wartime.
Союз европейских футбольных ассоциаций (УЕФА) 17 марта объявит о переносе Евро-2020 на следующий год, а также о приостановке национальных чемпионатов из-за распространения коронавируса. Об этом сообщает L'Equipe.
По информации источника, после встречи, о которой было объявлено ранее 12 марта, УЕФА не только приостановит розыгрыш Лиги чемпионов и Лиги Европы, но и перенесет запланированный на лето 2020 года чемпионат Европы. Кроме того, все национальные чемпионаты должны быть прерваны.
