Согласно interview "главного бугалтера" Timothy Geithner aмериканская економика выправилась и уверенно идет вверх, вероyaтность греческого сценария в Америке сегодня очень мала и ети страхи вчераший день.
http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/ ... ps.01.html
<ZAKARIA: The way you guys have been -- and the administration have been handling this has been the stimulus package, help on the mortgage front, help with the auto sector, the Federal Reserve has been pumping liquidity into the system.
At some point, that has to end.
GEITHNER: Right.
ZAKARIA: Do you worry that when the federal help to the economy starts tapering out, we will be in for a double dip?
GEITHNER: I'm not worried that -- and the reason I'm not worried is because I think that we're going to be careful not to put on the brakes before we're more confident. You've got a -- a private sector- led recovery in place that's going to be able to withstand the effects of the restraint.
You know, as you know, we're already starting to walk back the emergency measures we took in the crisis. We made a lot of progress winding down. We're putting TARP out of its misery. The Fed's mostly ended its emergency programs.
That's all necessary and desirable and we're going to start next year to start to bring the deficits down quite sharply over time.
ZAKARIA: But you still look at the Federal Reserve, it has 2$2.5 trillion on its balance sheet. That's almost two and a half times as it -- as much as it did when the crisis started.
GEITHNER: Right.
ZAKARIA: You still have very low interest rates.
Aren't you worried that you're feeding a new bubble of sorts? I mean, if you look at -- there's a book I'm sure you've seen by Ken Rogoff which talks about the history of the last 500 years, and, in each case, the effort to -- to deal with the financial crisis, what ends up happening is you create a small bubble of -- of its own because you flooded the market with cheap credit and liquidity.
GEITHNER: Of course, our strategy was guided very much by what Ken Rogoff wrote about, which is a history of crisis. It shows that if you mismanage them, they're hugely expensive and costly over time.
But what we did is to move much earlier than countries ever have moved, with much more force early on. And, in the financial sector, we did the very important thing by forcing banks to open their books and to recapitalize with private money.
We had the government get out of the financial sector much more quickly and have the private sector bear a much greater share of the burden for solving the crisis. And because of that, the fiscal cost of this crisis, because of those two basic choices, one is to put overwhelming force into righting the ship, putting out the fire, and by adopting a strategy that forced the private sector to carry more of the burden of recapitalizing the financial sector, this is going to cost us much less in fiscal terms than even the S&L crisis, which was a much more modest crisis, much simpler crisis to solve.
ZAKARIA: Do you feel confident that this balancing act that you're trying to achieve of pushing enough stimulus that you can keep the economy going, but then withdrawing it so that you don't create another bubble, you don't create other -- other problems, you're sure you're going to get this right?
GEITHNER: Well, it's a -- it's a challenge to get the balance exactly right. But I think we have a very good chance. I'm much more confident than I have been at any time these last two and a half years of crisis because, again, we did enough early, with enough force that we were able to right the ship.
And, really, there's very encouraging signs across the economy today that the private sector is getting stronger. You know, it's still a very tough economy, and, as I said earlier, it's going to take a long time to heal what was damaged across the basic American sense of security.
It's going to take some time, and we're going to keep working to make sure people get back to work, incomes are growing, the gains of growth are shared more broadly. And since I'm much more confident that we're going to salvage that, I'm also very confident that we're going to have the will as a country to start to bring down those deficits over time.
Again, if you listen carefully now, the entire tone of the American political debate on budgets has changed, and we had a long period where people said -- some people said deficits don't matter. Governments don't have to pay for things. You can cut taxes for the rich. You can do huge, expensive new programs without paying for them. That's changed dramatically, and nobody can look at our fiscal position today, after a long period of living within our means, and say that we can afford to ignore that later.
So I think that helps a little bit because that means it's going to be easier for us to do the right and the necessary thing when the economy's stronger. >
. Но сначала придет Ельцин-II