ZSM-5 wrote:Версий много. Например:
1) Повышение рейтинга МакКейна перед ноябрьскими выборами
2) Очередная попытка взорвать Северный Кавказ (осетины [b]выбраны отнюдь не случайно - они в течение столетий было оплотом России на Кавказе)
3) Тестирование Медведева
4) Задвигание России на задний план (уже пошли разговоры и про ВТО, и про G8)
5) Стравливание республик бывшего СССР между собой (типичный пример - очередная ссора Украины и России, по поводу продажи оружия Грузии, и ЧФ)
Вот тут есть интересное интервью Нарочницкой
http://www.kp.ru/daily/24145/362306/
Не надо читать советских газет перед обедом.
Читайте умных людей - там все написано, и кто, и зачем, и кому выгодно.
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/russo_ge ... ance_power
From the Kosovo experience, they concluded that the United States and Europe were not prepared to consider Russian wishes even in fairly minor affairs. That was the breaking point. If Russian desires could not be accommodated even in a minor matter like this, then clearly Russia and the West were in conflict. For the Russians, as we said, the question was how to respond. Having declined to respond in Kosovo, the Russians decided to respond where they had all the cards: in South Ossetia.
Moscow had two motives, the lesser of which was as a tit-for-tat over Kosovo. If Kosovo could be declared independent under Western sponsorship, then South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the two breakaway regions of Georgia, could be declared independent under Russian sponsorship. Any objections from the United States and Europe would simply confirm their hypocrisy. This was important for internal Russian political reasons, but the second motive was far more important.
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin once said that the fall of the Soviet Union was a geopolitical disaster. This didn’t mean that he wanted to retain the Soviet state; rather, it meant that the disintegration of the Soviet Union had created a situation in which Russian national security was threatened by Western interests. As an example, consider that during the Cold War, St. Petersburg was about 1,200 miles away from a NATO country. Today it is about 60 miles away from Estonia, a NATO member. The disintegration of the Soviet Union had left Russia surrounded by a group of countries hostile to Russian interests in various degrees and heavily influenced by the United States, Europe and, in some cases, China.
Resurrecting the Russian Sphere
Putin did not want to re-establish the Soviet Union, but he did want to re-establish the Russian sphere of influence in the former Soviet Union region. To accomplish that, he had to do two things.
First, he had to re-establish the credibility of the Russian army as a fighting force, at least in the context of its region.
Second, he had to establish that Western guarantees, including NATO membership, meant nothing in the face of Russian power. He did not want to confront NATO directly, but he did want to confront and defeat a power that was closely aligned with the United States, had U.S. support, aid and advisers and was widely seen as being under American protection. Georgia was the perfect choice.
By invading Georgia as Russia did (competently if not brilliantly), Putin re-established the credibility of the Russian army. But far more importantly, by doing this Putin revealed an open secret: While the United States is tied down in the Middle East, American guarantees have no value. This lesson is not for American consumption. It is something that, from the Russian point of view, the Ukrainians, the Balts and the Central Asians need to digest. Indeed, it is a lesson Putin wants to transmit to Poland and the Czech Republic as well. The United States wants to place ballistic missile defense installations in those countries, and the Russians want them to understand that allowing this to happen increases their risk, not their security.
Например, Украина только с подначки НАТО конфликтует с Росиией. И никогда уже не будет все нормально между многими странами. Не будет того прежнего соседства, тем более теплых, добрых отношений. 
Разве былое братство уже не кажется дикостью? А потом будет хуже и хуже.
Но что поделать, не люблю я ложь.
Интересно, а куда они будут проситься, когда это случится? 
